Kuressaare v Paide prediction · Meistriliiga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Kuressaare 0–1 Paide PAIDE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Paide win~~52%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.342

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.354

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Paide win at 52%.
1′Much as we predicted: Paide was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 24–24–52
1′KICK-OFF Kuressaare v Paide
30′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Paide
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Paide win: 52% at kick-off, 42% now
38′We published Paide at 52%. Our model now makes it 79%. 0–1 · 5–16–79
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Kuressaare 0–1 Paide
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Paide win: 52% at kick-off, 79% now
39′A goal for Paide on 38′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 5–16–79
39′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 5–16–79
45′We published Paide at 52%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 4–16–80
45′HALF-TIME Kuressaare 0–1 Paide
45′SECOND HALF Kuressaare 0–1 Paide
48′A goal for Kuressaare on 47′. 0–1 · 4–16–80
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Paide · On: K. Piht · Off: M. Jobarteh
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Paide win: 52% at kick-off, 82% now
61′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Kuressaare
66′We published Paide at 52%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–13–85
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Kuressaare · On: G. Roivassepp · Off: R. Talu
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Paide · On: A. Surogin · Off: Daniel Cabral
73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Paide
76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Paide
77′We published Paide at 52%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Kuressaare · On: R. Tarkmeel · Off: A. Kivi
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Paide win: 52% at kick-off, 92% now
83′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Paide · On: P. A. Cham · Off: M. Miller
84′We published Paide at 52%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Paide
90′A goal for Paide on 90′. 0–1 · 0–3–97
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Kuressaare · On: J. Kobin · Off: R. Saar
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Paide · On: K. Kanne · Off: S. Luts
92′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90' Paide
FTFULL TIME Kuressaare 0–1 Paide
FTKuressaare 0–1 Paide · Paide win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Paide are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kuressaare 24%, draw 24%, Paide 52%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Kuressaare v PaideBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Kuressaare win24%

Draw24%

Paide win52%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 33

VenueKuressaare Linnastaadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kuressaare

Paide

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Meistriliiga

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Paide	32	+13	57
8	Kuressaare	32	−17	35

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · paide winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

52% The market51%

Us52%

~~Market~~51%

We make Paide a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 0.9–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kuressaare v Paide~~0.93 – 1.53

~~Form · last six in Meistriliiga this season · since 9 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 35 v 57~~8 v 3

~~The market · Paide win~~51% · ours 52%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Paide win The market, margin stripped

Published at 53%, 52% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kuressaare win	24%	24%	0
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Paide win	52%	51%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	44%	57%	−13
Both teams to score	46%	58%	−12
Over 1.5 goals	69%	78%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	23%	36%	−13
Kuressaare or draw	48%	49%	−1
Kuressaare clean sheet	22%	–	–
Paide clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.1%

0123450 7.9 14.1 10.0 5.2 2.0 1 8.9 10.9 9.0 4.6 2 3.7 5.5 4.2 2.2 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kuressaare down, Paide across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,047 Meistriliiga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Meistriliiga matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.4% of games this season, across 163 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kuressaare at home: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Paide away: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.93 goals for Kuressaare, 1.53 for Paide. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~PAI 1–0 KUR · PAI 1–1 KUR · KUR 0–1 PAI · KUR 1–1 PAI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Meistriliiga this season · since 9 Sept

KURESSAARE

LLDWWL0–4 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 0–2

PAIDE

LWWLWW1–2 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	32	+65	81
2	Flora Tallinn	33	+16	58
3	Paide	32	+13	57
4	Kalju Nomme	32	+21	51
5	Tammeka	33	−5	50
6	Laagri	33	0	47
7	Vaprus	33	−22	36
8	Kuressaare	32	−17	35
9	Nõmme United	33	−22	34
10	Trans Narva	33	−49	20