Kuressaare v Flora Tallinn prediction · Meistriliiga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Kuressaare 2–0 Flora Tallinn FLORA TALLINN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Flora Tallinn win~~61%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.055

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.941

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 38 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Flora Tallinn win at 61%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Flora Tallinn 61% before kick-off, 60% now. 0–0 · 18–22–60
1′KICK-OFF Kuressaare v Flora Tallinn
3′Little has changed for our model: Flora Tallinn 61% before kick-off, 60% now. 0–0 · 19–22–60
8′🟨 YELLOW · 8' Kuressaare
21′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Flora Tallinn
30′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Flora Tallinn
33′⚽ GOAL · 32' Kuressaare 1–0 Flora Tallinn
35′A goal for Kuressaare on 32′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 49–28–23
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Flora Tallinn win: 61% at kick-off, 23% now
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Kuressaare win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Flora Tallinn win 23%)
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Flora Tallinn win: 61% at kick-off, 57% now
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Flora Tallinn win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Kuressaare win 19%)
36′A. Svedovski scores for Kuressaare on 32′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 50–28–22
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Flora Tallinn win: 61% at kick-off, 57% now
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Flora Tallinn win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Kuressaare win 19%)
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Flora Tallinn win: 61% at kick-off, 23% now
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Kuressaare win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Flora Tallinn win 23%)
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Kuressaare 2–0 Flora Tallinn
45′40′ and it is 2–0: T. Jurisoo on the scoresheet for Kuressaare. 2–0 · 82–13–5
45′HALF-TIME Kuressaare 2–0 Flora Tallinn
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Flora Tallinn win: 61% at kick-off, 5% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Flora Tallinn win: 61% at kick-off, 22% now
46′SECOND HALF Kuressaare 2–0 Flora Tallinn
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Flora Tallinn · On: T. Teevali · Off: M. Jekimov
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Flora Tallinn win: 61% at kick-off, 5% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Kuressaare win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Flora Tallinn win 5%)
52′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Kuressaare
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Flora Tallinn win: 61% at kick-off, 5% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Kuressaare win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Flora Tallinn win 5%)
55′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Flora Tallinn · On: T. Varjund · Off: M. Kukkonen
56′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Flora Tallinn · On: E. Sorga · Off: T. Usta
65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Flora Tallinn · On: R. Alliku · Off: D. Kuraksin
67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Flora Tallinn
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Kuressaare · On: R. Talu · Off: A. Svedovski
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Kuressaare · On: A. Kivi · Off: R. Tarkmeel
74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Kuressaare · On: R. Talu · Off: A. Svedovski
74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Kuressaare · On: A. Kivi · Off: R. Tarkmeel
74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Kuressaare
75′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Kuressaare · On: R. Talu · Off: A. Svedovski
75′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Kuressaare · On: A. Kivi · Off: R. Tarkmeel
75′🟨 YELLOW · 73' E. Demidov · Kuressaare
81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Flora Tallinn · On: D. Zotov · Off: R. Valdmets
FTFULL TIME Kuressaare 2–0 Flora Tallinn
FTKuressaare 2–0 Flora Tallinn · Flora Tallinn win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Kuressaare win19%

Draw20%

Flora Tallinn win61%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:30

VenueKuressaare Linnastaadion

Line-ups

Kuressaare

Flora Tallinn

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Kuressaare

Flora Tallinn

23Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Flora Tallinn	29	+20	55
8	Kuressaare	29	−18	29

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Kuressaare

Formation not confirmed

31 K. Nomm

23 R. Saar

36 R. Piil

21 M. Lukka

68 J. Vahermagi

77 E. Demidov

28 R. Lukas

9 A. Svedovski

8 D. Andreas

88 T. Jurisoo

80 R. Tarkmeel

Coach · Oskar Kalpus

Substitutes

22 · S. Ristna

3 · K. Leedo

5 · S. Sinilaid

7 · R. Talu

10 · A. Kivi

14 · J. Kobin

17 · G. Roivassepp

25 · J. Lonks

27 · S. Prunn

41 · M. Opp

58 · A. Medvedev

Flora Tallinn

Formation not confirmed

33 E. Grunvald

4 M. Jekimov

24 O. Pihela

6 R. Veering

26 S. Tovstik

18 R. Valdmets

32 V. Kreida

7 D. Kuraksin

49 M. Kukkonen

29 S. Alamaa

17 T. Usta

Coach · Karl Mool

Substitutes

99 · K. Kivila

8 · T. Teevali

9 · R. Alliku

14 · T. Varjund

23 · M. Kolobov

50 · E. Sorga

67 · I. Antonov

55 · D. Zotov

76 · R. Sammul

97 · U. Korjus

Our number · flora tallinn winPublished 11 Oct 14:35

61% The market54%

Us61%

~~Market~~54%

We make Flora Tallinn a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–2.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · flora tallinn win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 61% to 54% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kuressaare win	19%	23%	−3
Draw	20%	23%	−3
Flora Tallinn win	61%	54%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	57%	63%	−6
Both teams to score	53%	61%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	78%	82%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	35%	42%	−7
Kuressaare or draw	39%	46%	−7
Kuressaare clean sheet	14%	–	–
Flora Tallinn clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 11.0%

0123450 4.7 11.0 9.9 6.5 3.3 1 5.9 9.3 9.6 6.3 3.2 2 2.6 5.0 4.8 3.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kuressaare down, Flora Tallinn across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,032 Meistriliiga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Meistriliiga matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.5% of games this season, across 148 played.

Head to head

22 previous meetings, 3.59 goals a meeting; 19 of 22 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kuressaare at home: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Flora Tallinn away: 2.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.99 goals for Kuressaare, 1.98 for Flora Tallinn. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

22 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.59

~~Over 2.5~~19 of 22

~~Both scored~~10 of 22

~~Last meetings~~FLO 2–3 KUR · KUR 0–3 FLO · FLO 2–1 KUR · FLO 2–0 KUR

Form · last six in Meistriliiga

KURESSAARE

LDWLLD0–1 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 0–4 · 1–3 · 0–0

FLORA TALLINN

LWWDWW1–2 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 3–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	29	+60	72
2	Flora Tallinn	29	+20	55
3	Paide	29	+12	51
4	Kalju Nomme	30	+24	50
5	Tammeka	30	−6	47
6	Laagri	30	−6	38
7	Vaprus	30	−18	35
8	Kuressaare	29	−18	29
9	Nõmme United	30	−25	28
10	Trans Narva	30	−43	20