Kuressaare v FC Levadia Tallinn prediction · Meistriliiga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Kuressaare 0–2 FC Levadia Tallinn FC LEVADIA TALLINN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–2 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said FC Levadia Tallinn win~~72%

~~The market said~~73%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.114

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.114

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Levadia Tallinn win at 72%.
1′Little has changed for our model: FC Levadia Tallinn 72% before kick-off, 72% now. 0–0 · 12–16–72
1′KICK-OFF Kuressaare v FC Levadia Tallinn
13′A goal for FC Levadia Tallinn on 13′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 3–9–88
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Kuressaare 0–1 FC Levadia Tallinn
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' FC Levadia Tallinn win: 72% at kick-off, 88% now
14′We said FC Levadia Tallinn at 72% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 88%. 0–1 · 3–9–88
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 3–10–88
45′HALF-TIME Kuressaare 0–1 FC Levadia Tallinn
46′SECOND HALF Kuressaare 0–1 FC Levadia Tallinn
57′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Kuressaare · On: S. Sinilaid · Off: A. Kivi
61′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Kuressaare · On: R. Talu · Off: G. Roivassepp
66′We said FC Levadia Tallinn at 72% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
66′SUBSTITUTION · 62' FC Levadia Tallinn · On: G. Reis · Off: E. Otoo
66′SUBSTITUTION · 62' FC Levadia Tallinn · On: R. Peetson · Off: G. Lehtmets
67′66′: Wendell on the scoresheet for FC Levadia Tallinn, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
67′We said FC Levadia Tallinn at 72% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 0–2 · 0–1–99
67′⚽ GOAL · 66' Kuressaare 0–2 FC Levadia Tallinn · Wendell
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' FC Levadia Tallinn win: 72% at kick-off, 99% now
76′We said FC Levadia Tallinn at 72% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' FC Levadia Tallinn · On: N. Kutateladze · Off: Wendell
81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' FC Levadia Tallinn · On: R. Kirss · Off: Alexandre
FTFULL TIME Kuressaare 0–2 FC Levadia Tallinn
FTKuressaare 0–2 FC Levadia Tallinn · FC Levadia Tallinn win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–2 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Levadia Tallinn are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kuressaare 12%, draw 16%, FC Levadia Tallinn 72%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Kuressaare v FC Levadia TallinnBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Kuressaare win12%

Draw16%

FC Levadia Tallinn win72%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 32

VenueKuressaare Linnastaadion

RefereeJ. Lorenz

Line-ups

Kuressaare

FC Levadia Tallinn

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kuressaare

FC Levadia Tallinn

4Days since last match3

Last match: 14 Oct · Meistriliiga

Last match: 15 Oct · Meistriliiga

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Kuressaare

Formation not confirmed

31 K. Nomm

36 R. Piil

21 M. Lukka

27 S. Prunn

17 G. Roivassepp

28 R. Lukas

8 D. Andreas

11 T. Jurisoo

9 A. Svedovski

77 E. Demidov

10 A. Kivi

Coach · Oskar Kalpus

Substitutes

3 · K. Leedo

5 · S. Sinilaid

7 · R. Talu

14 · J. Kobin

22 · S. Ristna

25 · J. Lonks

58 · A. Medvedev

80 · R. Tarkmeel

FC Levadia Tallinn

Formation not confirmed

1 O. Ani

23 F. Liivak

35 V. Iboro

4 T. Tammik

29 J. Saliste

18 Alexandre

36 Joao Pedro

21 M. Skvortsov

33 E. Otoo

10 Wendell

7 G. Lehtmets

Coach · Vjatseslav Zahovaiko

Substitutes

3 · A. Kompus

6 · R. Peetson

9 · N. Kutateladze

14 · K. Kompus

17 · R. Kirss

19 · G. Reis

28 · T. Zahovaiko

99 · K. Vallner

Our number · fc levadia tallinn winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 04:02 · locked at kick-off

72% The market73%

Us72%

~~Market~~73%

We make FC Levadia Tallinn a 72% chance to win. The market has them at 73%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 0.7–2.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kuressaare v FC Levadia Tallinn~~0.74 – 2.30

~~Form · last six in Meistriliiga this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 35 v 78~~8 v 1

~~The market · FC Levadia Tallinn win~~73% · ours 72%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Levadia Tallinn win The market, margin stripped

Published at 73%, 72% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 73% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kuressaare win	12%	9%	+3
Draw	16%	18%	−2
FC Levadia Tallinn win	72%	73%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	58%	63%	−5
Both teams to score	45%	50%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	79%	82%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	36%	45%	−9
Kuressaare or draw	28%	27%	+1
Kuressaare clean sheet	11%	–	–
FC Levadia Tallinn clean sheet	48%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 12.5%

0123450 4.4 11.9 12.5 9.6 5.6 2.71 4.4 7.4 9.0 6.8 3.9 2 3.1 3.4 2.5 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kuressaare down, FC Levadia Tallinn across0–5 goals a side shown (96.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,040 Meistriliiga matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Meistriliiga matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.7% of games this season, across 156 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kuressaare at home: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). FC Levadia Tallinn away: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.74 goals for Kuressaare, 2.30 for FC Levadia Tallinn. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FCL 4–0 KUR · KUR 1–2 FCL · FCL 2–0 KUR · KUR 0–3 FCL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Meistriliiga this season · since 5 Sept

KURESSAARE

WLLDWW3–1 · 0–4 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–0

FC LEVADIA TALLINN

WWWDWW4–0 · 4–0 · 6–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 3–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	31	+63	78
2	Flora Tallinn	31	+16	55
3	Paide	31	+12	54
4	Kalju Nomme	32	+21	51
5	Tammeka	31	−7	47
6	Laagri	31	−4	41
7	Vaprus	31	−18	36
8	Kuressaare	31	−15	35
9	Nõmme United	32	−24	31
10	Trans Narva	31	−44	20