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Kalju Nomme v Laagri

Kalju Nomme

0–1Full time

Laagri

Meistriliiga · SAT 10 OCT · Hiiu Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:10

Kalju Nomme 0–1 Laagri KALJU NOMME WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kalju Nomme win~~65%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.151

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.094

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kalju Nomme win at 65%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Kalju Nomme 65% before kick-off, 64% now. 0–0 · 64–20–16
1′KICK-OFF Kalju Nomme v Laagri
43′We said Kalju Nomme at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 51%. 0–0 · 51–33–16
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Kalju Nomme win: 65% at kick-off, 51% now
45′HALF-TIME Kalju Nomme 0–0 Laagri
46′We said Kalju Nomme at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–35–16
46′SECOND HALF Kalju Nomme 0–0 Laagri
49′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Kalju Nomme
63′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Kalju Nomme · On: M. Mannilaan · Off: E. E. Lotar Eyang
67′We said Kalju Nomme at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 35%. 0–0 · 35–52–13
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Kalju Nomme win: 65% at kick-off, 35% now
67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Draw is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Kalju Nomme win 35%)
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Laagri · On: J. Ndakala · Off: K. Kriis
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Laagri · On: A. Kaevats · Off: K. Eerme
69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Laagri · On: S. Soo · Off: M. Kesa
77′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Kalju Nomme · On: T. Baptista · Off: M. Tambedou
83′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Laagri · On: K. Roomussaar · Off: M. Kelement
87′We said Kalju Nomme at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 0–0 · 7–91–3
87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Kalju Nomme
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Kalju Nomme win: 65% at kick-off, 7% now
89′⚽ GOAL · 88' Kalju Nomme 0–1 Laagri
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Kalju Nomme
FTFULL TIME Kalju Nomme 0–1 Laagri
FTKalju Nomme 0–1 Laagri · Kalju Nomme win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Kalju Nomme win65%

Draw19%

Laagri win16%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:30

Venue · Hiiu Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Kalju Nomme

Formation not confirmed

69 M. Pavlov

46 R. Vukusic

50 M. Podholjuzin

5 U. Korre

4 A. Borolinstsikov

20 M. Tambedou

26 R. Siht

8 O. Musolitin

10 N. Ivanov

17 E. E. Lotar Eyang

30 I. Jabir

Coach · Nikita Andreev

Substitutes

1 · H. Perk

2 · J. Lillemets

11 · M. Orlov

21 · T. Baptista

22 · A. Nikolajev

27 · M. Mannilaan

74 · F. Jekimov

78 · D. Mashchenko

Laagri

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Vainula

7 R. Reimaa

6 H. Palutaja

24 K. Laur

22 M. Kesa

17 M. Kelement

88 M. Seck

23 Rudenko Daniil

16 K. Kriis

19 A. Binate

9 K. Eerme

Coach · Lauri Nuuma

Substitutes

3 · A. Kaevats

15 · S. Liit

18 · I. Bah

20 · A. Vaher

21 · S. Soo

32 · S. Kerge

36 · S. Salei

53 · J. Ndakala

66 · K. Roomussaar

79 · R. Meesit

95 · S. Suppi

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Kalju Nomme

Formation not confirmed

69 M. Pavlov

46 R. Vukusic

50 M. Podholjuzin

5 U. Korre

4 A. Borolinstsikov

20 M. Tambedou

26 R. Siht

8 O. Musolitin

10 N. Ivanov

17 E. E. Lotar Eyang

30 I. Jabir

Coach · Nikita Andreev

Substitutes

1 · H. Perk

2 · J. Lillemets

11 · M. Orlov

21 · T. Baptista

22 · A. Nikolajev

27 · M. Mannilaan

74 · F. Jekimov

78 · D. Mashchenko

Laagri

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Vainula

7 R. Reimaa

6 H. Palutaja

24 K. Laur

22 M. Kesa

17 M. Kelement

88 M. Seck

23 Rudenko Daniil

16 K. Kriis

19 A. Binate

9 K. Eerme

Coach · Lauri Nuuma

Substitutes

3 · A. Kaevats

15 · S. Liit

18 · I. Bah

20 · A. Vaher

21 · S. Soo

32 · S. Kerge

36 · S. Salei

53 · J. Ndakala

66 · K. Roomussaar

79 · R. Meesit

95 · S. Suppi

Our number · kalju nomme winPublished 10 Oct 12:19

65% The market61%

Us65%

~~Market~~61%

We make Kalju Nomme a 65% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · kalju nomme win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 60% to 61% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kalju Nomme win	65%	61%	+4
Draw	19%	21%	−3
Laagri win	16%	18%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	58%	62%	−4
Both teams to score	52%	58%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	79%	81%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	36%	42%	−6
Kalju Nomme or draw	84%	82%	+1
Kalju Nomme clean sheet	40%	–	–
Laagri clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 10.9%

0123450 4.5 5.2 2.1 1 10.9 8.8 4.3 2 10.6 9.6 4.5 3 7.4 6.7 3.1 4 4.0 3.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kalju Nomme down, Laagri across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,029 Meistriliiga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Meistriliiga matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.5% of games this season, across 145 played.

Head to head

11 previous meetings, 2.18 goals a meeting; 4 of 11 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kalju Nomme at home: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Laagri away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.10 goals for Kalju Nomme, 0.92 for Laagri. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

11 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.18

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 11

~~Both scored~~4 of 11

~~Last meetings~~LAA 1–0 KAL · KAL 1–0 LAA · LAA 0–2 KAL · LAA 1–3 KAL

Form · last six in Meistriliiga

KALJU NOMME

LLLLWW0–1 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 3–1

LAAGRI

WWLLWD1–0 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	29	+60	72
2	Flora Tallinn	29	+20	55
3	Paide	29	+12	51
4	Kalju Nomme	29	+25	50
5	Tammeka	29	−10	44
6	Laagri	29	−7	35
7	Vaprus	29	−18	34
8	Kuressaare	29	−18	29
9	Nõmme United	29	−21	28
10	Trans Narva	29	−43	19