Kalju Nomme v Flora Tallinn prediction · Meistriliiga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Kalju NommeDrawFlora Tallinn

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Kalju Nomme 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kalju Nomme are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kalju Nomme 44%, draw 22%, Flora Tallinn 33%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Kalju Nomme v Flora TallinnBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Kalju Nomme win44%

Draw22%

Flora Tallinn win33%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 33

VenueHiiu Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kalju Nomme

Flora Tallinn

8Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · Meistriliiga

Last match: 21 Oct · Meistriliiga

2Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Flora Tallinn	33	+16	58
4	Kalju Nomme	32	+21	51

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kalju nomme winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 22 Oct 00:11 · locked at kick-off

44% The market38%

Us44%

~~Market~~38%

We make Kalju Nomme a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kalju Nomme v Flora Tallinn~~1.58 – 1.33

~~Form · last six in Meistriliiga this season · since 8 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 51 v 58~~4 v 3

~~The market · Kalju Nomme win~~38% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kalju Nomme win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 44% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kalju Nomme win	44%	38%	+6
Draw	22%	26%	−4
Flora Tallinn win	33%	36%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	55%	61%	−6
Both teams to score	57%	63%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	77%	80%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	33%	40%	−7
Kalju Nomme or draw	67%	64%	+3
Kalju Nomme clean sheet	27%	–	–
Flora Tallinn clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.3%

0123450 4.7 8.3 4.9 2.2 1 9.6 10.3 7.4 3.4 2 6.8 8.8 5.8 2.6 3 3.6 4.7 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kalju Nomme down, Flora Tallinn across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,049 Meistriliiga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Meistriliiga matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.2% of games this season, across 165 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kalju Nomme at home: 2.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Flora Tallinn away: 1.50 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for Kalju Nomme, 1.33 for Flora Tallinn. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FLO 2–1 KAL · KAL 0–1 FLO · FLO 0–1 KAL · KAL 3–1 FLO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Meistriliiga this season · since 8 Sept

KALJU NOMME

LWWLDL1–2 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–3

FLORA TALLINN

WWLLWL3–2 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 1–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	33	+66	84
2	Paide	33	+14	60
3	Flora Tallinn	33	+16	58
4	Kalju Nomme	32	+21	51
5	Tammeka	33	−5	50
6	Laagri	34	−1	47
7	Vaprus	33	−22	36
8	Kuressaare	33	−18	35
9	Nõmme United	33	−22	34
10	Trans Narva	33	−49	20