Flora Tallinn v Tammeka prediction · Meistriliiga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 19:31

Flora Tallinn 2–0 Tammeka FLORA TALLINN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Flora Tallinn win~~67%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.159

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.315

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Flora Tallinn win at 67%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Flora Tallinn 67% before kick-off, 67% now. 0–0 · 67–17–16
1′KICK-OFF Flora Tallinn v Tammeka
6′🟨 YELLOW · 5' Tammeka
22′Flora Tallinn find the net on 21′. 1–0. 1–0 · 83–12–5
22′We said Flora Tallinn at 67% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 83%. 1–0 · 83–12–5
22′⚽ GOAL · 21' Flora Tallinn 1–0 Tammeka
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Flora Tallinn win: 67% at kick-off, 83% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.5 we expected. 1–0 · 83–12–5
32′A goal for Flora Tallinn on 32′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
32′We said Flora Tallinn at 67% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Flora Tallinn 2–0 Tammeka
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Flora Tallinn win: 67% at kick-off, 95% now
45′HALF-TIME Flora Tallinn 2–0 Tammeka
46′SECOND HALF Flora Tallinn 2–0 Tammeka
48′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Tammeka
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Flora Tallinn win: 67% at kick-off, 97% now
59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Flora Tallinn
66′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Tammeka · On: R. Silov · Off: Kauan Pereira
66′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Tammeka · On: T. Lang · Off: L. Ounpuu
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Flora Tallinn · On: T. Usta · Off: D. Kuraksin
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Flora Tallinn · On: M. Kukkonen · Off: T. Varjund
72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Flora Tallinn
76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Flora Tallinn
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Flora Tallinn · On: S. Zenjov · Off: E. Sorga
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Tammeka · On: R. Laabus · Off: P. Marin
81′We said Flora Tallinn at 67% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Tammeka · On: K. Kiidron · Off: P. Veelma
84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Tammeka · On: R. Muur · Off: G. Uggeri
FTFULL TIME Flora Tallinn 2–0 Tammeka
FTFlora Tallinn 2–0 Tammeka · Flora Tallinn win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Flora Tallinn are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Flora Tallinn 67%, draw 16%, Tammeka 16%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Flora Tallinn v TammekaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Flora Tallinn win67%

Draw16%

Tammeka win16%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 32

VenueA. Le Coq Arena

RefereeJ. Jakobson

Line-ups

Flora Tallinn

Tammeka

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Flora Tallinn

Tammeka

3Days since last match4

Last match: 15 Oct · Meistriliiga

Last match: 14 Oct · Meistriliiga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Flora Tallinn	31	+16	55
5	Tammeka	31	−7	47

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Flora Tallinn

Formation not confirmed

33 E. Grunvald

8 T. Teevali

23 M. Kolobov

32 V. Kreida

6 R. Veering

18 R. Valdmets

14 T. Varjund

67 I. Antonov

7 D. Kuraksin

50 E. Sorga

29 S. Alamaa

Coach · Karl Mool

Substitutes

4 · M. Jekimov

17 · T. Usta

20 · S. Zenjov

21 · R. Neltsas

24 · O. Pihela

26 · S. Tovstik

49 · M. Kukkonen

53 · R. Sammul

55 · D. Zotov

89 · M. Kalimullin

99 · K. Kivila

Tammeka

Formation not confirmed

26 K. Lapa

23 P. Veelma

3 Pedro Manoel

44 O. Kangaslahti

27 L. Ounpuu

10 G. Uggeri

17 J. Amijekori

7 Thomas Lisboa

79 P. Marin

99 M. Hydara

89 Kauan Pereira

Coach · Karel Voolaid

Substitutes

4 · M. Vaino

8 · K. Kiidron

11 · R. Muur

13 · R. Laabus

22 · T. Lang

29 · R. Silov

77 · C. Kiidjarv

Our number · flora tallinn winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 16 Oct 00:08 · locked at kick-off

67% The market54%

Us67%

~~Market~~54%

We make Flora Tallinn a 67% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 13 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.4–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Flora Tallinn v Tammeka~~2.45 – 1.09

~~Form · last six in Meistriliiga this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 55 v 47~~2 v 5

~~The market · Flora Tallinn win~~54% · ours 67%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Flora Tallinn win The market, margin stripped

Published at 68%, 67% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Flora Tallinn win	67%	54%	+13
Draw	16%	22%	−6
Tammeka win	16%	23%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	68%	67%	+1
Both teams to score	59%	65%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	86%	84%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	47%	47%	0
Flora Tallinn or draw	84%	77%	+7
Flora Tallinn clean sheet	34%	–	–
Tammeka clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.2%

0123450 2.5 3.9 1 7.9 7.1 4.2 2 8.8 9.2 5.0 3 7.1 7.5 4.0 4 4.4 4.6 2.5 5 2.2 2.3

under 2% 5% 12%+Flora Tallinn down, Tammeka across0–5 goals a side shown (95.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,040 Meistriliiga matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Meistriliiga matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.7% of games this season, across 156 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 9 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Flora Tallinn at home: 2.00 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Tammeka away: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.45 goals for Flora Tallinn, 1.09 for Tammeka. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 10

~~Both scored~~9 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FLO 3–2 TAM · TAM 3–1 FLO · TAM 3–1 FLO · FLO 2–1 TAM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Meistriliiga this season · since 5 Sept

FLORA TALLINN

WDWWLL2–1 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 1–3

TAMMEKA

LWLLWL0–2 · 3–1 · 0–6 · 1–3 · 4–0 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	32	+65	81
2	Flora Tallinn	31	+16	55
3	Paide	31	+12	54
4	Kalju Nomme	32	+21	51
5	Tammeka	31	−7	47
6	Laagri	32	−2	44
7	Vaprus	32	−20	36
8	Kuressaare	32	−17	35
9	Nõmme United	32	−24	31
10	Trans Narva	31	−44	20