Flora Tallinn v FC Levadia Tallinn prediction · Meistriliiga

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 19:30

Flora Tallinn 1–3 FC Levadia Tallinn FC LEVADIA TALLINN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Levadia Tallinn win~~51%

~~The market said~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.360

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.196

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Levadia Tallinn win at 51%.
1′Much as we predicted: FC Levadia Tallinn was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 27–23–51
1′KICK-OFF Flora Tallinn v FC Levadia Tallinn
10′🟨 YELLOW · 10' FC Levadia Tallinn
14′Flora Tallinn find the net on 13′. 1–0. 1–0 · 52–24–25
14′We said FC Levadia Tallinn at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 25%. 1–0 · 52–24–25
14′⚽ GOAL · 13' Flora Tallinn 1–0 FC Levadia Tallinn
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' FC Levadia Tallinn win: 51% at kick-off, 25% now
14′THE CALL SWINGS · 14' Flora Tallinn win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was FC Levadia Tallinn win 25%)
16′We said FC Levadia Tallinn at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 52–24–24
20′A goal for FC Levadia Tallinn on 20′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 26–27–47
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Flora Tallinn 1–1 FC Levadia Tallinn
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' FC Levadia Tallinn win: 51% at kick-off, 47% now
20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' FC Levadia Tallinn win is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Flora Tallinn win 26%)
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' FC Levadia Tallinn win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
45′HALF-TIME Flora Tallinn 1–1 FC Levadia Tallinn
46′SECOND HALF Flora Tallinn 1–1 FC Levadia Tallinn
47′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 1–1 · 24–36–40
48′We said FC Levadia Tallinn at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 24–37–39
54′FC Levadia Tallinn score on 54′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 5–18–77
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Flora Tallinn 1–2 FC Levadia Tallinn
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' FC Levadia Tallinn win: 51% at kick-off, 77% now
55′We published FC Levadia Tallinn at 51%. Our model now makes it 78%. 1–2 · 5–18–78
59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Flora Tallinn
63′We published FC Levadia Tallinn at 51%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–2 · 4–17–80
66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Flora Tallinn
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' FC Levadia Tallinn win: 51% at kick-off, 81% now
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' FC Levadia Tallinn · On: E. Otoo · Off: G. Reis
72′FC Levadia Tallinn find the net on 72′. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–2–98
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Flora Tallinn 1–3 FC Levadia Tallinn
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' FC Levadia Tallinn win: 51% at kick-off, 98% now
73′We published FC Levadia Tallinn at 51%. Our model now makes it 98%. 1–3 · 0–2–98
73′4 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–2–98
74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Flora Tallinn · On: R. Alliku · Off: T. Varjund
75′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Flora Tallinn · On: I. Antonov · Off: D. Kuraksin
83′We published FC Levadia Tallinn at 51%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
83′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Flora Tallinn · On: M. Kalimullin · Off: R. Valdmets
85′SUBSTITUTION · 81' FC Levadia Tallinn · On: Alexandre · Off: N. Kutateladze Corrected
86′SUBSTITUTION · 81' FC Levadia Tallinn · On: G. Lehtmets · Off: M. Skvortsov
86′SUBSTITUTION · 81' FC Levadia Tallinn · On: Alexandre · Off: Joao Pedro
87′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Flora Tallinn · On: T. Usta · Off: S. Tovstik
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' FC Levadia Tallinn
FTFULL TIME Flora Tallinn 1–3 FC Levadia Tallinn
FTFlora Tallinn 1–3 FC Levadia Tallinn · FC Levadia Tallinn win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Levadia Tallinn are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Flora Tallinn 28%, draw 21%, FC Levadia Tallinn 51%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Flora Tallinn v FC Levadia TallinnBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Flora Tallinn win28%

Draw21%

FC Levadia Tallinn win51%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 31

VenueA. Le Coq Arena

RefereeK. Koppel

Line-ups

Flora Tallinn

FC Levadia Tallinn

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Flora Tallinn

FC Levadia Tallinn

4Days since last match4

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Flora Tallinn

Formation not confirmed

33 E. Grunvald

8 T. Teevali

23 M. Kolobov

6 R. Veering

26 S. Tovstik

14 T. Varjund

32 V. Kreida

18 R. Valdmets

7 D. Kuraksin

50 E. Sorga

29 S. Alamaa

Coach · Karl Mool

Substitutes

99 · K. Kivila

3 · A. Kollo

4 · M. Jekimov

9 · R. Alliku

17 · T. Usta

20 · S. Zenjov

24 · O. Pihela

67 · I. Antonov

88 · A. Jakovenko

89 · M. Kalimullin

FC Levadia Tallinn

Formation not confirmed

99 K. Vallner

23 F. Liivak

35 V. Iboro

4 T. Tammik

5 M. Roosnupp

6 R. Peetson

36 Joao Pedro

19 G. Reis

11 M. Ainsalu

9 N. Kutateladze

21 M. Skvortsov

Coach · Vjatseslav Zahovaiko

Substitutes

1 · O. Ani

7 · G. Lehtmets

17 · R. Kirss

18 · Alexandre

20 · A. Nwankwo

28 · T. Zahovaiko

33 · E. Otoo

Our number · fc levadia tallinn winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 12 Oct 00:09 · locked at kick-off

51% The market64%

Us51%

~~Market~~64%

We make FC Levadia Tallinn a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Flora Tallinn v FC Levadia Tallinn~~1.28 – 1.85

~~Form · last six in Meistriliiga this season · since 2 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 55 v 75~~2 v 1

~~The market · FC Levadia Tallinn win~~64% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Levadia Tallinn win The market, margin stripped

Published at 50%, 51% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Flora Tallinn win	28%	16%	+12
Draw	21%	20%	+1
FC Levadia Tallinn win	51%	64%	−13
Over 2.5 goals	60%	69%	−9
Both teams to score	59%	62%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	81%	85%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	38%	50%	−12
Flora Tallinn or draw	49%	36%	+13
Flora Tallinn clean sheet	17%	–	–
FC Levadia Tallinn clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.8 9.0 7.4 4.6 2.2 1 6.6 9.4 9.1 5.6 2.7 2 3.8 6.5 5.8 3.6 3 2.9 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Flora Tallinn down, FC Levadia Tallinn across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,038 Meistriliiga matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Meistriliiga matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.3% of games this season, across 154 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.20 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Flora Tallinn at home: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). FC Levadia Tallinn away: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Flora Tallinn, 1.85 for FC Levadia Tallinn. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FCL 1–2 FLO · FLO 1–3 FCL · FCL 4–0 FLO · FLO 1–1 FCL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Meistriliiga this season · since 2 Sept

FLORA TALLINN

WWDWWL3–2 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 3–2 · 0–2

FC LEVADIA TALLINN

WWWWDW2–0 · 4–0 · 4–0 · 6–0 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	30	+61	75
2	Flora Tallinn	30	+18	55
3	Paide	31	+12	54
4	Kalju Nomme	31	+24	51
5	Tammeka	31	−7	47
6	Laagri	31	−4	41
7	Vaprus	31	−18	36
8	Kuressaare	31	−15	35
9	Nõmme United	31	−27	28
10	Trans Narva	31	−44	20