FC Levadia Tallinn v Tammeka prediction · Meistriliiga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

FC Levadia TallinnDrawTammeka

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · FC Levadia Tallinn 82%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Levadia Tallinn are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Levadia Tallinn 82%, draw 11%, Tammeka 7%. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on FC Levadia Tallinn v TammekaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

FC Levadia Tallinn win82%

Draw11%

Tammeka win7%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 34

VenueA. Le Coq Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Levadia Tallinn

Tammeka

3Days since last match4

Last match: 24 Oct · Meistriliiga

Last match: 23 Oct · Meistriliiga

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc levadia tallinn winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · updated 24 Oct 00:16 · locked at kick-off

82% The market78%

Us82%

~~Market~~78%

We make FC Levadia Tallinn an 82% chance to win. The market has them at 78%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 3.0–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Levadia Tallinn v Tammeka~~3.02 – 0.76

~~Form · last six in Meistriliiga this season · since 17 Sept~~W5 D1 L0 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 84 v 50~~1 v 5

~~The market · FC Levadia Tallinn win~~78% · ours 82%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Levadia Tallinn win The market, margin stripped

Published at 83%, 82% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 78% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Levadia Tallinn win	82%	78%	+4
Draw	11%	14%	−3
Tammeka win	7%	8%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	72%	73%	−1
Both teams to score	50%	54%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	88%	87%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	52%	55%	−3
FC Levadia Tallinn or draw	93%	92%	+1
FC Levadia Tallinn clean sheet	47%	–	–
Tammeka clean sheet	5%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.4%

0123450 2.0 2.3 1 7.6 4.9 2.1 2 10.4 7.8 3.0 3 10.2 7.7 2.9 4 7.7 5.7 2.2 5 4.7 3.5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Levadia Tallinn down, Tammeka across0–5 goals a side shown (90.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,049 Meistriliiga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Meistriliiga matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.2% of games this season, across 165 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.60 goals a meeting; 9 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Levadia Tallinn at home: 3.50 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Tammeka away: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.02 goals for FC Levadia Tallinn, 0.76 for Tammeka. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.60

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FCL 6–0 TAM · TAM 0–1 FCL · TAM 1–2 FCL · FCL 3–0 TAM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Meistriliiga this season · since 17 Sept

FC LEVADIA TALLINN

WDWWWW6–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 2–1

TAMMEKA

LLWLLW0–6 · 1–3 · 4–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 5–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	33	+66	84
2	Paide	33	+14	60
3	Flora Tallinn	33	+16	58
4	Kalju Nomme	32	+21	51
5	Tammeka	33	−5	50
6	Laagri	34	−1	47
7	Vaprus	33	−22	36
8	Kuressaare	33	−18	35
9	Nõmme United	33	−22	34
10	Trans Narva	33	−49	20