FC Levadia Tallinn v Paide prediction · Meistriliiga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:05

FC Levadia Tallinn 1–0 Paide FC LEVADIA TALLINN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said FC Levadia Tallinn win~~63%

~~The market said~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.204

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.200

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Levadia Tallinn win at 63%.
1′KICK-OFF FC Levadia Tallinn v Paide
2′Much as we predicted: FC Levadia Tallinn was 63% before kick-off and our model makes it 62% now. 0–0 · 62–21–17
3′Much as we predicted: FC Levadia Tallinn was 63% before kick-off and our model makes it 62% now. 0–0 · 62–21–17
3′🟨 YELLOW · 3' Paide
6′🟨 YELLOW · 6' FC Levadia Tallinn
23′🟨 YELLOW · 23' FC Levadia Tallinn
31′🟨 YELLOW · 31' FC Levadia Tallinn
36′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Paide
45′We said FC Levadia Tallinn at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–35–17
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' FC Levadia Tallinn win: 63% at kick-off, 49% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' FC Levadia Tallinn win: 63% at kick-off, 56% now
45′PENALTY MISSED · 47' FC Levadia Tallinn
45′HALF-TIME FC Levadia Tallinn 0–0 Paide
46′SECOND HALF FC Levadia Tallinn 0–0 Paide
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Paide · On: K. Piht · Off: D. Darboe
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Paide · On: O. Hoim · Off: R. Smirnov
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Paide · On: K. Piht · Off: D. Darboe
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' FC Levadia Tallinn win: 63% at kick-off, 49% now
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' FC Levadia Tallinn win: 63% at kick-off, 49% now
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' FC Levadia Tallinn win: 63% at kick-off, 49% now
52′🟨 YELLOW · 52' FC Levadia Tallinn
69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' FC Levadia Tallinn · On: M. Roosnupp · Off: N. Kutateladze Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' FC Levadia Tallinn · On: G. Reis · Off: M. Skvortsov Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Paide · On: S. Luts · Off: D. Luts
77′SUBSTITUTION · 73' FC Levadia Tallinn · On: T. Tammik · Off: Alexandre Corrected
77′SUBSTITUTION · 73' FC Levadia Tallinn · On: E. Otoo · Off: A. Nwankwo Corrected
77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' FC Levadia Tallinn
81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Paide
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Paide · On: A. Surogin · Off: M. Miller
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' FC Levadia Tallinn 1–0 Paide
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' FC Levadia Tallinn 1–0 Paide
90′⚽ GOAL · 89' FC Levadia Tallinn 1–0 Paide
90′SUBSTITUTION · 94' FC Levadia Tallinn · On: R. Kirss · Off: Wendell
FTFULL TIME FC Levadia Tallinn 1–0 Paide
FTFC Levadia Tallinn 1–0 Paide · FC Levadia Tallinn win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

FC Levadia Tallinn win63%

Draw19%

Paide win18%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:30

VenueA. Le Coq Arena

Line-ups

FC Levadia Tallinn

Paide

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

FC Levadia Tallinn

Paide

21Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	29	+60	72
3	Paide	29	+12	51

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

FC Levadia Tallinn

Formation not confirmed

99 K. Vallner

23 F. Liivak

35 V. Iboro

20 A. Nwankwo

29 J. Saliste

18 Alexandre

36 Joao Pedro

21 M. Skvortsov

11 M. Ainsalu

10 Wendell

9 N. Kutateladze

Coach · Vjatseslav Zahovaiko

Substitutes

1 · O. Ani

4 · T. Tammik

5 · M. Roosnupp

6 · R. Peetson

7 · G. Lehtmets

8 · A. Zakarlyuka

17 · R. Kirss

19 · G. Reis

33 · E. Otoo

Paide

Formation not confirmed

12 M. Meerits

2 M. Lilander

27 N. Baranov

3 Victor Hugo

4 Andrade

6 Daniel Cabral

77 D. Luts

21 R. Smirnov

10 M. Miller

14 M. Jobarteh

29 D. Darboe

Coach · Tarmo Kink

Substitutes

16 · A. Surogin

17 · P. A. Cham

19 · S. Luts

20 · K. Piht

23 · J. Palacios

28 · O. Hoim

37 · K. Kanne

56 · M. Sapp

99 · E. Jarju

63 · K. Reivik

Our number · fc levadia tallinn winPublished 11 Oct 12:33

63% The market64%

Us63%

~~Market~~64%

We make FC Levadia Tallinn a 63% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 2.0–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fc levadia tallinn win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 65% to 64% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Levadia Tallinn win	63%	64%	0
Draw	19%	21%	−1
Paide win	18%	16%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	57%	66%	−10
Both teams to score	51%	60%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	78%	84%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	34%	47%	−13
FC Levadia Tallinn or draw	82%	84%	−2
FC Levadia Tallinn clean sheet	40%	–	–
Paide clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.3%

0123450 4.7 5.6 2.3 1 11.3 9.0 4.5 2 10.5 9.6 4.5 3 7.1 6.5 3.0 4 3.7 3.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Levadia Tallinn down, Paide across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,032 Meistriliiga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Meistriliiga matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.5% of games this season, across 148 played.

Head to head

23 previous meetings, 2.35 goals a meeting; 12 of 23 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Levadia Tallinn at home: 4.00 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Paide away: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.03 goals for FC Levadia Tallinn, 0.93 for Paide. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

23 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.35

~~Over 2.5~~12 of 23

~~Both scored~~9 of 23

~~Last meetings~~PAI 0–2 FCL · PAI 1–3 FCL · FCL 2–2 PAI · FCL 1–2 PAI

Form · last six in Meistriliiga

FC LEVADIA TALLINN

WWWWWD3–2 · 2–0 · 4–0 · 4–0 · 6–0 · 1–1

PAIDE

WLWLWW2–1 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 3–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	29	+60	72
2	Flora Tallinn	29	+20	55
3	Paide	29	+12	51
4	Kalju Nomme	30	+24	50
5	Tammeka	30	−6	47
6	Laagri	30	−6	38
7	Vaprus	30	−18	35
8	Kuressaare	29	−18	29
9	Nõmme United	30	−25	28
10	Trans Narva	30	−43	20