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FC Levadia Tallinn v Laagri

FC Levadia Tallinn
2–1Full time
Laagri

Meistriliiga · SAT 24 OCT · A. Le Coq Arena

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08
FC Levadia Tallinn 2–1 Laagri FC LEVADIA TALLINN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said FC Levadia Tallinn win79%
The market said74%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.070
The market’s Brier score0.102

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay23 notes · 40 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said FC Levadia Tallinn win at 79%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: FC Levadia Tallinn was 79% before kick-off and our model makes it 78% now. 0–0 · 78–13–9
  3. 1′KICK-OFF FC Levadia Tallinn v Laagri
  4. 11′Laagri score on 10′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 52–23–24
  5. 11′We said FC Levadia Tallinn at 79%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 52%. 0–1 · 52–23–24
  6. 11′⚽ GOAL · 10' FC Levadia Tallinn 0–1 Laagri
  7. 11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' FC Levadia Tallinn win: 79% at kick-off, 52% now
  8. 17′We said FC Levadia Tallinn at 79%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–1 · 49–24–26
  9. 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' FC Levadia Tallinn win: 79% at kick-off, 49% now
  10. 24′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Laagri
  11. 26′We said FC Levadia Tallinn at 79%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–1 · 44–26–29
  12. 30′FC Levadia Tallinn find the net on 29′. 1–1. 1–1 · 69–21–10
  13. 30′⚽ GOAL · 29' FC Levadia Tallinn 1–1 Laagri
  14. 30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' FC Levadia Tallinn win: 79% at kick-off, 69% now
  15. 34′We said FC Levadia Tallinn at 79%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 67%. 1–1 · 67–22–10
  16. 41′We said FC Levadia Tallinn at 79%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 64%. 1–1 · 64–26–10
  17. 42′Goals are coming at about the 3.5 we expected. 1–1 · 63–26–10
  18. 45′HALF-TIME FC Levadia Tallinn 1–1 Laagri
  19. 46′SECOND HALF FC Levadia Tallinn 1–1 Laagri
  20. 48′A red card for FC Levadia Tallinn on 45′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–1 · 60–30–10
  21. 48′🟥 RED CARD · 45+3' FC Levadia Tallinn
  22. 49′We said FC Levadia Tallinn at 79%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 59%. 1–1 · 59–30–10
  23. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' FC Levadia Tallinn win: 79% at kick-off, 59% now
  24. 53′🟨 YELLOW · 53' FC Levadia Tallinn
  25. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' FC Levadia Tallinn win: 79% at kick-off, 49% now
  26. 68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was FC Levadia Tallinn win 46%)
  27. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Laagri · On: Y. E. Assale · Off: K. Kriis
  28. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Laagri · On: A. Jarve · Off: H. Palutaja
  29. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' FC Levadia Tallinn · On: M. Skvortsov · Off: G. Reis
  30. 69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' FC Levadia Tallinn
  31. 71′We said FC Levadia Tallinn at 79%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–53–9
  32. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' FC Levadia Tallinn win: 79% at kick-off, 39% now
  33. 74′We said FC Levadia Tallinn at 79%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–58–8
  34. 78′We said FC Levadia Tallinn at 79%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 1–1 · 28–65–7
  35. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' FC Levadia Tallinn win: 79% at kick-off, 28% now
  36. 80′We said FC Levadia Tallinn at 79%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–70–6
  37. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Laagri · On: E. Kajari · Off: S. Soo
  38. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Laagri · On: J. Ndakala · Off: A. Binate
  39. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' FC Levadia Tallinn win: 79% at kick-off, 18% now
  40. 84′We said FC Levadia Tallinn at 79%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 1–1 · 16–80–4
  41. 86′We said FC Levadia Tallinn at 79%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 1–1 · 13–83–4
  42. 86′A goal for Laagri on 86′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 1–12–87
  43. 86′We said FC Levadia Tallinn at 79%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 1–2 · 1–12–87
  44. 86′⚽ GOAL · 86' FC Levadia Tallinn 1–2 Laagri
  45. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' FC Levadia Tallinn win: 79% at kick-off, 1% now
  46. 86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Laagri win is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Draw 83%)
  47. 88′GOAL DISALLOWED · 86' Laagri
  48. 88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Draw is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Laagri win 88%)
  49. 89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Laagri
  50. 90′We said FC Levadia Tallinn at 79%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 1–1 · 8–89–2
  51. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 86' FC Levadia Tallinn · On: G. Lehtmets · Off: Wendell
  52. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 86' FC Levadia Tallinn · On: R. Kirss · Off: Joao Pedro
  53. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 86' FC Levadia Tallinn · On: E. Otoo · Off: M. Roosnupp
  54. 92′SUBSTITUTION · 86' FC Levadia Tallinn · On: Alexandre · Off: R. Peetson
  55. 94′Red cards for both sides: FC Levadia Tallinn down to ten, Laagri to ten. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–1 · 3–96–1
  56. 94′🟥 RED CARD · 90+5' Laagri
  57. 96′A goal for FC Levadia Tallinn on 90′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 99–1–0
  58. 96′⚽ GOAL · 90+6' FC Levadia Tallinn 2–1 Laagri
  59. 96′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+6' FC Levadia Tallinn win: 79% at kick-off, 99% now
  60. 96′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+6' FC Levadia Tallinn win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 96%)
  61. 97′We published FC Levadia Tallinn at 79%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–1 · 99–1–0
  62. 97′SUBSTITUTION · 90+4' Laagri · On: S. Liit · Off: K. Eerme
  63. 97′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+7' FC Levadia Tallinn win: 79% at kick-off, 99% now
  64. FTFULL TIME FC Levadia Tallinn 2–1 Laagri
  65. FTFC Levadia Tallinn 2–1 Laagri · FC Levadia Tallinn win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Levadia Tallinn are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Levadia Tallinn 79%, draw 13%, Laagri 9%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on FC Levadia Tallinn v LaagriBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

FC Levadia Tallinn win79%
Draw13%
Laagri win9%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 33

VenueA. Le Coq Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Levadia Tallinn

Laagri

6Days since last match3

Last match: 18 Oct · Meistriliiga

Last match: 21 Oct · Meistriliiga

3Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1FC Levadia Tallinn32+6581
6Laagri33047

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc levadia tallinn winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off
79% The market74%
Us79%
Market74%

We make FC Levadia Tallinn a 79% chance to win. The market has them at 74%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.7–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · FC Levadia Tallinn v Laagri2.72 – 0.75
Form · last six in Meistriliiga this season · since 12 SeptW5 D1 L0 · W5 D1 L0
Table places · points 81 v 471 v 6
The market · FC Levadia Tallinn win74% · ours 79%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
70%75%80%85% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 14:20
Our probability · FC Levadia Tallinn win The market, margin stripped

Published at 80%, 79% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 74% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
FC Levadia Tallinn win79%74%+5
Draw13%16%−3
Laagri win9%10%−1
Over 2.5 goals67%70%−3
Both teams to score48%56%−8
Over 1.5 goals85%86%−1
Over 3.5 goals46%52%−6
FC Levadia Tallinn or draw91%90%+1
FC Levadia Tallinn clean sheet47%––
Laagri clean sheet7%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.4%
0123450 2.8 3.0 1 9.1 5.9 2.4 2 11.4 8.4 3.2 3 10.2 7.5 2.9 4 7.0 5.1 5 3.9 2.9
under 2% 5% 12%+FC Levadia Tallinn down, Laagri across0–5 goals a side shown (93.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.90
Over 2.57 of 10
Both scored5 of 10
Last meetingsLAA 1–2 FCL · FCL 3–0 LAA · LAA 1–3 FCL · LAA 2–2 FCL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Meistriliiga this season · since 12 Sept

FC LEVADIA TALLINN

WWDWWW4–0 · 6–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 2–0

LAAGRI

WDWWWW2–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 3–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1FC Levadia Tallinn32+6581
2Flora Tallinn33+1658
3Paide32+1357
4Kalju Nomme32+2151
5Tammeka33−550
6Laagri33047
7Vaprus33−2236
8Kuressaare32−1735
9Nõmme United33−2234
10Trans Narva33−4920

The competition's standings before kick-off.