Union Magdalena v Leones FC prediction · Primera B

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 01:30

Union Magdalena 2–2 Leones FC UNION MAGDALENA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Union Magdalena win~~67%

~~The market said~~67%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.113

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.083

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Union Magdalena win at 67%.
1′Much as we predicted: Union Magdalena was 67% before kick-off and our model makes it 68% now. 0–0 · 68–20–12
17′Union Magdalena ahead on 16′ through M. Ballesteros. 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–1
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Union Magdalena win: 67% at kick-off, 97% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Union Magdalena win: 67% at kick-off, 68% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Union Magdalena win: 67% at kick-off, 97% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Union Magdalena win: 67% at kick-off, 68% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Union Magdalena win: 67% at kick-off, 97% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Union Magdalena win: 67% at kick-off, 97% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Union Magdalena win: 67% at kick-off, 68% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Union Magdalena win: 67% at kick-off, 97% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Union Magdalena win: 67% at kick-off, 68% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Union Magdalena win: 67% at kick-off, 68% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Union Magdalena win: 67% at kick-off, 97% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Union Magdalena win: 67% at kick-off, 97% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Union Magdalena win: 67% at kick-off, 68% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Union Magdalena win: 67% at kick-off, 97% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Union Magdalena win: 67% at kick-off, 68% now
37′We published Union Magdalena at 67%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
40′We published Union Magdalena at 67%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
45′SECOND HALF Union Magdalena 2–0 Leones FC
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Union Magdalena win: 67% at kick-off, 98% now
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Union Magdalena win: 67% at kick-off, 98% now
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Union Magdalena win: 67% at kick-off, 98% now
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Union Magdalena win: 67% at kick-off, 98% now
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Union Magdalena 2–1 Leones FC · M. Ballesteros
56′⚽ GOAL · 57' Union Magdalena 2–1 Leones FC
68′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Leones FC · On: L. Pacheco · Off: S. Montoya
68′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Leones FC · On: J. Bonilla · Off: J. Castano
69′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Union Magdalena · On: J. Giraldo · Off: R. Rodriguez
70′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Union Magdalena · On: J. Mercado · Off: O. Surmay
70′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Union Magdalena · On: J. Giraldo · Off: R. Rodriguez
74′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Union Magdalena
84′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Union Magdalena
84′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Leones FC · On: J. Echeverry · Off: J. Bonilla
92′⚽ GOAL · 92' Union Magdalena 2–2 Leones FC · C. Rodriguez Cespedes
92′⚽ GOAL · 93' Union Magdalena 2–2 Leones FC
FTFULL TIME Union Magdalena 2–2 Leones FC
FTUnion Magdalena 2–2 Leones FC · Union Magdalena win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Union Magdalena win67%

Draw20%

Leones FC win13%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 23:00

VenueEstadio Sierra Nevada

Line-ups

Union Magdalena

Leones FC

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Union Magdalena

Leones FC

4Days since last match4

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Union Magdalena	32	+14	53
16	Leones FC	26	−25	20

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Union Magdalena

Formation not confirmed

34 M. Tasso

5 J. Penaloza

6 D. Ortiz

18 F. Molina

20 J. Vasquez

16 O. Surmay

15 R. Rodriguez

19 F. Mosquera

2 M. Ballesteros

7 R. Blanco

14 J. Farias

Coach · Carlos Silva

Substitutes

1 · V. Cabezas

4 · R. Delvalle

27 · J. Lerma

28 · K. Salazar

10 · J. Mercado

22 · J. Giraldo

29 · J. Pimienta

8 · V. Prado

9 · C. Iguaran

Leones FC

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Figueroa

5 G. Meneses

3 J. Moreno

22 J. Restrepo

16 J. Renteria

19 J. Martinez

8 D. Villa

29 T. Soto

24 S. Montoya

7 C. Rodriguez Cespedes

27 J. Castano

Coach · Felipe Merino

Substitutes

12 · J. Arboleda

35 · J. Echeverry

15 · J. Martinez

25 · T. Calle

30 · R. Granados

9 · J. Bonilla

23 · L. Pacheco

Our number · union magdalena winPublished 11 Oct 23:01

67% The market67%

Us67%

~~Market~~67%

We make Union Magdalena a 67% chance to win. The market has them at 67%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 2.0–0.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · union magdalena win The market, margin stripped

Published at 68%, 67% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 67% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Union Magdalena win	67%	67%	0
Draw	20%	21%	−1
Leones FC win	13%	12%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	52%	50%	+2
Both teams to score	44%	43%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	76%	73%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	30%	29%	0
Union Magdalena or draw	87%	88%	−1
Union Magdalena clean sheet	49%	–	–
Leones FC clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.0%

0123450 6.6 4.8 1 13.0 9.3 3.4 2 12.9 9.3 3.4 3 8.7 6.2 2.3 4 4.5 3.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Union Magdalena down, Leones FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,729 Primera B matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera B matches have gone over 2.5 in 38.8% of games this season, across 237 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 3.29 goals a meeting; 5 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Union Magdalena at home: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Leones FC away: 0.50 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.03 goals for Union Magdalena, 0.73 for Leones FC. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.29

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 7

~~Both scored~~5 of 7

~~Last meetings~~LEO 1–3 UNI · UNI 2–1 LEO · LEO 1–1 UNI · LEO 1–3 UNI

Form · last six in Primera B

UNION MAGDALENA

LLWDWD1–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 1–1

LEONES FC

LLDLLD0–1 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Internacional Palmira	32	+12	59
2	Quindio	32	+12	57
3	Envigado	34	+15	56
4	Real Cartagena	35	+14	56
5	Union Magdalena	32	+14	53
6	Tigres FC	33	+6	46
7	Ind. Yumbo	27	+8	43
8	Bogota FC	32	−7	38
9	Real Cundinamarca	27	+3	36
10	Barranquilla	32	−6	35
11	Patriotas	26	−4	34
12	Popayan	26	−1	31
13	Orsomarso	26	−8	27
14	Depor FC	27	−15	24
15	Real Santander	27	−18	22
16	Leones FC	26	−25	20