Union Magdalena v Ind. Yumbo prediction · Primera B

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 01:30

Union Magdalena 1–1 Ind. Yumbo UNION MAGDALENA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Union Magdalena win~~46%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.778

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.795

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Union Magdalena win at 46%.
1′KICK-OFF Union Magdalena v Ind. Yumbo
2′Much as we predicted: Union Magdalena was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–29–25
8′Ind. Yumbo find the net on 8′. 0–1. 0–1 · 19–25–56
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Union Magdalena 0–1 Ind. Yumbo
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 8' Union Magdalena win: 46% at kick-off, 19% now
8′THE CALL SWINGS · 8' Ind. Yumbo win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Union Magdalena win 19%)
9′We said Union Magdalena at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–25–56
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Union Magdalena win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
27′We said Union Magdalena at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–26–60
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 0–1 · 14–26–61
35′SUBSTITUTION · 20' Union Magdalena · On: J. Farias · Off: V. Prado
45′We said Union Magdalena at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–66
45′HALF-TIME Union Magdalena 0–1 Ind. Yumbo
46′SECOND HALF Union Magdalena 0–1 Ind. Yumbo
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Union Magdalena win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
63′We said Union Magdalena at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–74
72′A goal for Union Magdalena on 71′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 19–68–12
72′⚽ GOAL · 71' Union Magdalena 1–1 Ind. Yumbo
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Union Magdalena win: 46% at kick-off, 19% now
72′THE CALL SWINGS · 72' Draw is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Ind. Yumbo win 12%)
73′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Ind. Yumbo · On: J. Pajaro · Off: H. Moreyra
77′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Union Magdalena · On: C. Iguaran · Off: R. Rodriguez
83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Union Magdalena
86′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Ind. Yumbo · On: J. Ampudia · Off: J. Diaz
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Union Magdalena win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
86′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Ind. Yumbo · On: L. Farias · Off: A. Garcia
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Ind. Yumbo · On: H. Mena · Off: T. Diaz
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Ind. Yumbo · On: J. Perdomo · Off: L. Quinonez
FTFULL TIME Union Magdalena 1–1 Ind. Yumbo
FTUnion Magdalena 1–1 Ind. Yumbo · Union Magdalena win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Union Magdalena are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Union Magdalena 46%, draw 29%, Ind. Yumbo 25%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Union Magdalena v Ind. YumboBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Union Magdalena win46%

Draw29%

Ind. Yumbo win25%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 23:00

RoundClausura · matchday 13

VenueEstadio Sierra Nevada

Line-ups

Union Magdalena

Ind. Yumbo

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Union Magdalena

Ind. Yumbo

4Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · the Colombian Primera B

Last match: 8 Oct · the Colombian Primera B

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Union Magdalena	33	+14	54
7	Ind. Yumbo	27	+8	43

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Union Magdalena

Formation not confirmed

34 M. Tasso

5 J. Penaloza

6 D. Ortiz

18 F. Molina

25 W. Sagrera

16 O. Surmay

19 F. Mosquera

8 V. Prado

15 R. Rodriguez

2 M. Ballesteros

7 R. Blanco

Coach · Carlos Silva

Substitutes

1 · V. Cabezas

4 · R. Delvalle

32 · A. P. Fabian Andres

28 · K. Salazar

22 · J. Giraldo

29 · J. Pimienta

38 · W. Alvarez

14 · J. Farias

9 · C. Iguaran

Ind. Yumbo

Formation not confirmed

12 L. Mena

3 D. Ferrer

4 J. Rodriguez

5 J. Diaz

6 H. Moreyra

8 T. Diaz

9 A. Garcia

16 H. De Arco

17 L. Quinonez

25 F. Pena

29 J. Palacios

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · J. Tamara

7 · H. Mena

11 · L. Farias

15 · J. Perdomo

27 · J. Ampudia

34 · J. Pajaro

35 · O. Gomez

Our number · union magdalena winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

46% The market48%

Us46%

~~Market~~48%

We make Union Magdalena a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Union Magdalena v Ind. Yumbo~~1.27 – 0.86

~~Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 9 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 54 v 43~~5 v 7

~~The market · Union Magdalena win~~48% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Union Magdalena win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Union Magdalena win	46%	48%	−2
Draw	29%	29%	0
Ind. Yumbo win	25%	23%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	36%	43%	−7
Both teams to score	41%	47%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	62%	67%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	17%	23%	−6
Union Magdalena or draw	75%	77%	−2
Union Magdalena clean sheet	43%	–	–
Ind. Yumbo clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.1%

0123450 12.2 10.3 4.4 1 15.1 12.8 5.5 2 9.5 8.1 3.5 3 4.1 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Union Magdalena down, Ind. Yumbo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,735 Primera B matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera B matches have gone over 2.5 in 38.7% of games this season, across 243 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Union Magdalena at home: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Ind. Yumbo away: 1.50 scored, 0.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Union Magdalena, 0.86 for Ind. Yumbo. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~IND 0–2 UNI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 9 Sept

UNION MAGDALENA

LWDWDD1–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 2–2

IND. YUMBO

DWLWWD0–0 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 4–3 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Internacional Palmira	33	+12	60
2	Envigado	35	+15	57
3	Quindio	33	+9	57
4	Real Cartagena	35	+14	56
5	Union Magdalena	33	+14	54
6	Tigres FC	33	+6	46
7	Ind. Yumbo	27	+8	43
8	Bogota FC	34	−7	40
9	Barranquilla	33	−3	38
10	Real Cundinamarca	28	+3	37
11	Patriotas	27	−4	35
12	Popayan	27	−2	31
13	Orsomarso	27	−7	30
14	Depor FC	27	−15	24
15	Real Santander	27	−18	22
16	Leones FC	27	−25	21