Union Magdalena v Depor FC prediction · Primera B

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Union MagdalenaDrawDepor FC

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 21:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Union Magdalena 69%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Union Magdalena are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Union Magdalena 69%, draw 19%, Depor FC 12%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Union Magdalena v Depor FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Union Magdalena win69%

Draw19%

Depor FC win12%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 21:30

RoundClausura · matchday 15

VenueEstadio La Independencia

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Union Magdalena

Depor FC

5Days since last match4

Last match: 19 Oct · the Colombian Primera B

Last match: 20 Oct · the Colombian Primera B

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Union Magdalena	35	+15	58
14	Depor FC	29	−15	27

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · union magdalena winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 23 Oct 04:12 · locked at kick-off

69% The market74%

Us69%

~~Market~~74%

We make Union Magdalena a 69% chance to win. The market has them at 74%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Union Magdalena v Depor FC~~2.05 – 0.69

~~Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 22 Sept~~W2 D4 L0 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 58 v 27~~5 v 14

~~The market · Union Magdalena win~~74% · ours 69%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Union Magdalena win The market, margin stripped

Published at 68%, 69% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 74% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Union Magdalena win	69%	74%	−5
Draw	19%	17%	+2
Depor FC win	12%	9%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	51%	59%	−8
Both teams to score	43%	46%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	75%	79%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	29%	39%	−10
Union Magdalena or draw	88%	91%	−3
Union Magdalena clean sheet	50%	–	–
Depor FC clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 13.4%

0123450 6.6 4.7 1 13.3 9.1 3.2 2 13.4 9.1 3.2 3 9.1 6.2 2.2 4 4.8 3.2 5 2.0

under 2% 5% 12%+Union Magdalena down, Depor FC across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,750 Primera B matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera B matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.6% of games this season, across 258 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Union Magdalena at home: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Depor FC away: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.05 goals for Union Magdalena, 0.69 for Depor FC. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~DEP 1–3 UNI · UNI 0–0 DEP · DEP 0–2 UNI · UNI 2–0 DEP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 22 Sept

UNION MAGDALENA

DWDDDW1–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–0

DEPOR FC

LLLDWL0–3 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 0–1

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Envigado	37	+16	61
2	Internacional Palmira	35	+11	61
3	Quindio	35	+10	61
4	Real Cartagena	37	+17	60
5	Union Magdalena	35	+15	58
6	Tigres FC	35	+6	48
7	Ind. Yumbo	29	+11	47
8	Bogota FC	35	−6	43
9	Barranquilla	35	−4	39
10	Real Cundinamarca	29	+3	38
11	Patriotas	29	−8	35
12	Popayan	29	−6	31
13	Orsomarso	29	−8	31
14	Depor FC	29	−15	27
15	Real Santander	29	−17	26
16	Leones FC	29	−25	24