Tigres FC v Real Cundinamarca prediction · Primera B

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 23:00

Tigres FC 0–0 Real Cundinamarca REAL CUNDINAMARCA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Real Cundinamarca win~~35%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.713

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.703

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Real Cundinamarca win at 35%.
1′KICK-OFF Tigres FC v Real Cundinamarca
2′Much as we predicted: Real Cundinamarca was 35% before kick-off and our model makes it 35% now. 0–0 · 34–32–35
21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Real Cundinamarca win 34%)
45′HALF-TIME Tigres FC 0–0 Real Cundinamarca
46′SECOND HALF Tigres FC 0–0 Real Cundinamarca
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Real Cundinamarca win: 35% at kick-off, 25% now
51′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Tigres FC
56′Tigres FC score on 55′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 77–19–4
56′We said Real Cundinamarca at 35%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 77–19–4
56′⚽ GOAL · 55' Tigres FC 1–0 Real Cundinamarca
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Real Cundinamarca win: 35% at kick-off, 4% now
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Tigres FC win is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Draw 54%)
57′GOAL DISALLOWED · 57' Tigres FC
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Real Cundinamarca win: 35% at kick-off, 23% now
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Draw is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Tigres FC win 77%)
63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Real Cundinamarca · On: C. Negrete · Off: Y. Valencia
63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Real Cundinamarca · On: J. D. Fernandez · Off: J. Alba
63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Real Cundinamarca
64′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Real Cundinamarca · On: C. Uribe · Off: E. Ibarguen
71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Tigres FC
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Real Cundinamarca win: 35% at kick-off, 15% now
73′We said Real Cundinamarca at 35%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–71–14
76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Tigres FC
80′We said Real Cundinamarca at 35%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–81–9
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Real Cundinamarca win: 35% at kick-off, 5% now
87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Real Cundinamarca
FTFULL TIME Tigres FC 0–0 Real Cundinamarca
FTTigres FC 0–0 Real Cundinamarca · Real Cundinamarca win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Real Cundinamarca just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Tigres FC 34%, draw 31%, Real Cundinamarca 35%. Over 2.5 goals 31%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Tigres FC v Real CundinamarcaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Tigres FC win34%

Draw31%

Real Cundinamarca win35%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 20:15

RoundClausura · matchday 14

VenueEstadio Metropolitano de Techo

Line-ups

Tigres FC

Real Cundinamarca

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tigres FC

Real Cundinamarca

5Days since last match6

Last match: 15 Oct · the Colombian Primera B

Last match: 14 Oct · the Colombian Primera B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Tigres FC	34	+6	47
10	Real Cundinamarca	28	+3	37

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Tigres FC

Formation not confirmed

1 K. E. Lopez Larrota

15 S. Guzman

6 J. Lopera

5 Jhon Renteria

3 J. Cano

9 O. Aragon

8 Y. Salas

13 A. Cuadros

27 J. Martinez

11 L. Palacios

19 D. Rativa

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · V. M. Brid Arroyo

2 · G. Cabezas

10 · K. Mosquera

14 · F. Granada

18 · W. S. Mena

21 · S. Cardenas Pico

23 · M. Frigerio

26 · M. Canon

29 · J. P. Ramirez Acosta

Real Cundinamarca

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Valencia

22 E. Ibarguen

4 S. Florez

2 J. Suaza

19 J. Cortes

5 A. Cano

23 K. Vidal

21 J. Alba

17 K. Cuellar

7 Y. Valencia

20 O. Acosta

Coach · Diego Mazo

Substitutes

33 · J. Lemus

31 · L. Obregon

3 · A. Estupinan

25 · G. Saavedra

27 · C. Uribe

30 · P. de Zubiria

26 · J. D. Fernandez

29 · J. Jaramillo

9 · C. Negrete

Our number · real cundinamarca winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 20 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

35% The market33%

Us35%

~~Market~~33%

We make Real Cundinamarca a 35% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.0–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tigres FC v Real Cundinamarca~~0.97 – 0.99

~~Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D4 L0 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 47 v 37~~6 v 10

~~The market · Real Cundinamarca win~~33% · ours 35%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Real Cundinamarca win The market, margin stripped

Published at 36%, 35% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tigres FC win	34%	36%	−2
Draw	31%	32%	−1
Real Cundinamarca win	35%	33%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	31%	38%	−7
Both teams to score	39%	45%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	58%	63%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	14%	19%	−5
Tigres FC or draw	65%	67%	−2
Tigres FC clean sheet	37%	–	–
Real Cundinamarca clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 14.2%

0123450 14.2 14.1 7.0 2.3 1 13.7 13.3 6.6 2.2 2 6.6 6.5 3.2 3 2.1 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tigres FC down, Real Cundinamarca across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,747 Primera B matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera B matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.6% of games this season, across 255 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023 in every competition we cover, 1.67 goals a meeting; 0 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tigres FC at home: 0.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Real Cundinamarca away: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.97 goals for Tigres FC, 0.99 for Real Cundinamarca. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 6

~~Both scored~~1 of 6

~~Last meetings~~REA 0–2 TIG · TIG 0–2 REA · REA 1–1 TIG · REA 1–0 TIG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 12 Sept

TIGRES FC

DWDWDD0–0 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–2

REAL CUNDINAMARCA

WWWWLD2–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–0

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Envigado	37	+16	61
2	Internacional Palmira	35	+11	61
3	Real Cartagena	37	+17	60
4	Union Magdalena	35	+15	58
5	Quindio	34	+9	58
6	Tigres FC	34	+6	47
7	Ind. Yumbo	28	+8	44
8	Bogota FC	35	−6	43
9	Barranquilla	35	−4	39
10	Real Cundinamarca	28	+3	37
11	Patriotas	29	−8	35
12	Popayan	28	−3	31
13	Orsomarso	29	−8	31
14	Depor FC	28	−14	27
15	Real Santander	29	−17	26
16	Leones FC	29	−25	24