Real Santander v Leones FC prediction · Primera B

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 22:30

Real Santander 1–0 Leones FC REAL SANTANDER WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Real Santander win~~44%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.464

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.431

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Real Santander win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Real Santander 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–27–29
1′KICK-OFF Real Santander v Leones FC
3′A goal for Real Santander on 3′. 0–0 · 44–27–29
6′We said Real Santander at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 1–0 · 71–18–11
6′⚽ GOAL · 3' Real Santander 1–0 Leones FC
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Real Santander win: 44% at kick-off, 71% now
7′A goal for Real Santander on 6′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 71–18–11
28′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Leones FC
31′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 73–19–8
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Real Santander win: 44% at kick-off, 74% now
40′We said Real Santander at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–7
45′HALF-TIME Real Santander 1–0 Leones FC
45′SECOND HALF Real Santander 1–0 Leones FC
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Leones FC · On: J. Martinez · Off: T. Soto
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Leones FC · On: S. Montoya · Off: J. Castano
61′We said Real Santander at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
64′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Leones FC · On: J. Echeverry · Off: J. Restrepo
65′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Leones FC
69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Real Santander
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Real Santander win: 44% at kick-off, 84% now
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Leones FC · On: L. Pacheco · Off: O. Segura
72′We said Real Santander at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
80′We said Real Santander at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Real Santander
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Real Santander win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
86′We said Real Santander at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
86′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Real Santander · On: J. Carrasco · Off: P. Rodriguez
86′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Real Santander · On: J. Delgado · Off: M. Diaz
87′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Leones FC · On: L. Sanches · Off: N. Restrepo
88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Real Santander
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Leones FC
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Real Santander
FTFULL TIME Real Santander 1–0 Leones FC
FTReal Santander 1–0 Leones FC · Real Santander win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Real Santander are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Real Santander 44%, draw 27%, Leones FC 29%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Real Santander v Leones FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Real Santander win44%

Draw27%

Leones FC win29%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 20:00

RoundClausura · matchday 14

VenueEstadio Villa Concha

Line-ups

Real Santander

Leones FC

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Real Santander

Leones FC

4Days since last match4

Last match: 15 Oct · the Colombian Primera B

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Leones FC	28	−24	24
16	Real Santander	28	−18	23

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Real Santander

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Lazaro

3 C. Duran

6 A. Ariza

14 J. P. Garcia Habib

41 E. E. Chacon Bonilla

7 Rueda Juan

31 D. Tapia

9 P. Rodriguez

27 J. D. Guillen Sanchez

5 J. Holguin

11 M. Diaz

Coach · –

Substitutes

22 · Y. Ramos

8 · J. Garcia

15 · J. Ararat

16 · J. Hernandez

24 · L. Rangel

25 · A. Segura

29 · J. Carrasco

36 · J. Ayala

37 · J. Delgado

Leones FC

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Figueroa

22 J. Restrepo

5 G. Meneses

16 J. Renteria

18 N. Restrepo

30 R. Granados

8 D. Villa

29 T. Soto

21 O. Segura

7 C. Rodriguez Cespedes

27 J. Castano

Coach · Felipe Merino

Substitutes

12 · J. Arboleda

35 · J. Echeverry

15 · J. Martinez

19 · J. Martinez

10 · L. Sanches

24 · S. Montoya

23 · L. Pacheco

Our number · real santander winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · updated 19 Oct 03:55 · locked at kick-off

44% The market46%

Us44%

~~Market~~46%

We make Real Santander a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Real Santander v Leones FC~~1.42 – 1.09

~~Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 23 v 24~~16 v 15

~~The market · Real Santander win~~46% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Real Santander win The market, margin stripped

Published at 45%, 44% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Real Santander win	44%	46%	−2
Draw	27%	27%	0
Leones FC win	29%	26%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	46%	49%	−3
Both teams to score	50%	53%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	71%	72%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	25%	29%	−4
Real Santander or draw	71%	74%	−3
Real Santander clean sheet	34%	–	–
Leones FC clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 8.3 8.9 4.9 1 11.5 12.5 6.8 2.5 2 8.1 8.8 4.8 3 3.9 4.2 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Real Santander down, Leones FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,743 Primera B matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera B matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.8% of games this season, across 251 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Real Santander at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Leones FC away: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Real Santander, 1.09 for Leones FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~LEO 1–0 REA · LEO 1–1 REA · REA 1–0 LEO · LEO 2–0 REA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 12 Sept

REAL SANTANDER

LDDLWD0–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 1–1

LEONES FC

DLLDDW1–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–0

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Envigado	37	+16	61
2	Internacional Palmira	34	+12	61
3	Quindio	34	+9	58
4	Real Cartagena	36	+14	57
5	Union Magdalena	34	+14	55
6	Tigres FC	34	+6	47
7	Ind. Yumbo	28	+8	44
8	Bogota FC	34	−7	40
9	Barranquilla	35	−4	39
10	Real Cundinamarca	28	+3	37
11	Patriotas	28	−5	35
12	Popayan	28	−3	31
13	Orsomarso	28	−7	31
14	Depor FC	28	−14	27
15	Leones FC	28	−24	24
16	Real Santander	28	−18	23