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Real Cundinamarca v Real Santander

Real Cundinamarca

0–1Full time

Real Santander

Primera B · FRI 9 OCT · Estadio Municipal de Mosquera

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 23:30

Real Cundinamarca 0–1 Real Santander REAL CUNDINAMARCA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Real Cundinamarca win~~65%

~~The market said~~66%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.220

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.219

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Real Cundinamarca win at 65%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Real Cundinamarca 65% before kick-off, 66% now. 0–0 · 66–21–13
1′KICK-OFF Real Cundinamarca v Real Santander
11′🟨 YELLOW · 11' Real Cundinamarca
16′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Real Cundinamarca
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Real Cundinamarca win: 65% at kick-off, 55% now
36′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Real Santander
38′We said Real Cundinamarca at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 53%. 0–0 · 53–33–14
38′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Real Santander
45′HALF-TIME Real Cundinamarca 0–0 Real Santander
46′SECOND HALF Real Cundinamarca 0–0 Real Santander
63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Real Santander
66′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Real Santander
69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Real Cundinamarca · On: C. Gomez · Off: A. Cano
70′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Real Cundinamarca · On: C. Gomez · Off: A. Cano
71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Real Cundinamarca
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Real Cundinamarca 0–1 Real Santander
80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Real Cundinamarca
80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Real Santander
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Real Cundinamarca
83′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Real Cundinamarca
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Real Santander
90′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Real Santander
FTReal Cundinamarca 0–1 Real Santander · Real Cundinamarca win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Real Cundinamarca win65%

Draw21%

Real Santander win14%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 21:00

Venue · Estadio Municipal de Mosquera

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Real Cundinamarca

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Valencia

22 E. Ibarguen

4 S. Florez

3 A. Estupinan

19 J. Cortes

5 A. Cano

23 K. Vidal

18 B. Quinonez

10 J. Amaya

9 C. Negrete

20 O. Acosta

Coach · Diego Mazo

Substitutes

12 · D. Mosquera

2 · J. Suaza

27 · C. Uribe

16 · C. Zambrano

8 · C. Gomez

30 · P. de Zubiria

17 · K. Cuellar

14 · B. Castro

28 · C. Rios

Real Santander

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Lazaro

3 C. Duran

6 A. Ariza

14 J. P. Garcia Habib

41 E. E. Chacon Bonilla

7 Rueda Juan

26 B. Roman

9 P. Rodriguez

15 J. Ararat

5 J. Holguin

11 M. Diaz

Coach · –

Substitutes

22 · Y. Ramos

8 · J. Garcia

27 · J. D. Guillen Sanchez

29 · J. Carrasco

31 · D. Tapia

36 · J. Ayala

37 · J. Delgado

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Real Cundinamarca

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Valencia

22 E. Ibarguen

4 S. Florez

3 A. Estupinan

19 J. Cortes

5 A. Cano

23 K. Vidal

18 B. Quinonez

10 J. Amaya

9 C. Negrete

20 O. Acosta

Coach · Diego Mazo

Substitutes

12 · D. Mosquera

2 · J. Suaza

27 · C. Uribe

16 · C. Zambrano

8 · C. Gomez

30 · P. de Zubiria

17 · K. Cuellar

14 · B. Castro

28 · C. Rios

Real Santander

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Lazaro

3 C. Duran

6 A. Ariza

14 J. P. Garcia Habib

41 E. E. Chacon Bonilla

7 Rueda Juan

26 B. Roman

9 P. Rodriguez

15 J. Ararat

5 J. Holguin

11 M. Diaz

Coach · –

Substitutes

22 · Y. Ramos

8 · J. Garcia

27 · J. D. Guillen Sanchez

29 · J. Carrasco

31 · D. Tapia

36 · J. Ayala

37 · J. Delgado

Our number · real cundinamarca winPublished 9 Oct 21:03

65% The market66%

Us65%

~~Market~~66%

We make Real Cundinamarca a 65% chance to win. The market has them at 66%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.9–0.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · real cundinamarca win The market, margin stripped

Published at 66%, 65% now. The market has gone from 61% to 66% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Real Cundinamarca win	65%	66%	0
Draw	21%	21%	0
Real Santander win	14%	14%	0
Over 2.5 goals	49%	55%	−5
Both teams to score	44%	49%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	74%	77%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	28%	34%	−6
Real Cundinamarca or draw	86%	86%	0
Real Cundinamarca clean sheet	49%	–	–
Real Santander clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.6%

0123450 7.3 5.3 1 13.6 9.8 3.6 2 12.9 9.3 3.4 3 8.3 5.9 2.2 4 4.1 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Real Cundinamarca down, Real Santander across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,728 Primera B matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera B matches have gone over 2.5 in 39.0% of games this season, across 236 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 3.80 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Real Cundinamarca at home: 2.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Real Santander away: 0.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.93 goals for Real Cundinamarca, 0.72 for Real Santander. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.80

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~REA 2–1 REA · REA 2–0 REA · REA 3–4 REA · REA 0–1 REA

Form · last six in Primera B

REAL CUNDINAMARCA

WWWWWW4–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 2–1

REAL SANTANDER

WDLDDL3–1 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Internacional Palmira	32	+12	59
2	Quindio	32	+12	57
3	Envigado	34	+15	56
4	Real Cartagena	35	+14	56
5	Union Magdalena	32	+14	53
6	Tigres FC	33	+6	46
7	Ind. Yumbo	27	+8	43
8	Bogota FC	32	−7	38
9	Real Cundinamarca	26	+4	36
10	Barranquilla	32	−6	35
11	Patriotas	26	−4	34
12	Popayan	26	−1	31
13	Orsomarso	26	−8	27
14	Depor FC	27	−15	24
15	Leones FC	26	−25	20
16	Real Santander	26	−19	19