Real Cundinamarca v Ind. Yumbo prediction · Primera B

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Real CundinamarcaDrawInd. Yumbo

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 21:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Real Cundinamarca 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Real Cundinamarca are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Real Cundinamarca 42%, draw 30%, Ind. Yumbo 28%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Real Cundinamarca v Ind. YumboBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Real Cundinamarca win42%

Draw30%

Ind. Yumbo win28%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 21:30

RoundClausura · matchday 15

VenueEstadio Municipal de Mosquera

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Real Cundinamarca

Ind. Yumbo

4Days since last match4

Last match: 20 Oct · the Colombian Primera B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Ind. Yumbo	29	+11	47
10	Real Cundinamarca	29	+3	38

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · real cundinamarca winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 24 Oct 18:53 · locked at kick-off

42% The market45%

Us42%

~~Market~~45%

We make Real Cundinamarca a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Real Cundinamarca v Ind. Yumbo~~1.14 – 0.89

~~Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 21 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 38 v 47~~10 v 7

~~The market · Real Cundinamarca win~~45% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Real Cundinamarca win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Real Cundinamarca win	42%	45%	−3
Draw	30%	29%	+1
Ind. Yumbo win	28%	26%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	33%	43%	−10
Both teams to score	40%	49%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	60%	68%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	15%	23%	−8
Real Cundinamarca or draw	72%	74%	−2
Real Cundinamarca clean sheet	41%	–	–
Ind. Yumbo clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.0%

0123450 13.2 11.7 5.2 1 15.0 13.1 5.9 2 8.5 7.5 3.3 3 3.3 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Real Cundinamarca down, Ind. Yumbo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,750 Primera B matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera B matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.6% of games this season, across 258 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2026 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Real Cundinamarca at home: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Ind. Yumbo away: 1.33 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for Real Cundinamarca, 0.89 for Ind. Yumbo. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~REA 2–0 IND · IND 1–1 REA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 21 Sept

REAL CUNDINAMARCA

WWWLDD3–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 0–0

IND. YUMBO

LWWDDW0–1 · 4–3 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 3–0

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Envigado	37	+16	61
2	Internacional Palmira	35	+11	61
3	Quindio	35	+10	61
4	Real Cartagena	37	+17	60
5	Union Magdalena	35	+15	58
6	Tigres FC	35	+6	48
7	Ind. Yumbo	29	+11	47
8	Bogota FC	35	−6	43
9	Barranquilla	35	−4	39
10	Real Cundinamarca	29	+3	38
11	Patriotas	29	−8	35
12	Popayan	29	−6	31
13	Orsomarso	29	−8	31
14	Depor FC	29	−15	27
15	Real Santander	29	−17	26
16	Leones FC	29	−25	24