

Real Cundinamarca v Bogota FC
Real Cundinamarca
Bogota FCPrimera B · WED 14 OCT · Estadio Municipal de Mosquera
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Real Cundinamarca win at 61%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Real Cundinamarca 61% before kick-off, 62% now. 0–0 · 62–23–15
- 1′KICK-OFF Real Cundinamarca v Bogota FC
- 11′🟨 YELLOW · 11' Real Cundinamarca
- 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Real Cundinamarca win: 61% at kick-off, 51% now
- 35′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Bogota FC
- 38′🟨 YELLOW · 10' E. Ibarguen · Real Cundinamarca
- 40′We said Real Cundinamarca at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–36–15
- 45′SUBSTITUTION · 33' Bogota FC · On: H. Ramos Jaramillo · Off: J. Sanchez
- 45′HALF-TIME Real Cundinamarca 0–0 Bogota FC
- 46′🟨 YELLOW · 35' H. Ramos Jaramillo · Bogota FC
- 46′SECOND HALF Real Cundinamarca 0–0 Bogota FC
- 49′We said Real Cundinamarca at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–41–15
- 50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Real Cundinamarca
- 51′🟨 YELLOW · 48' O. Acosta · Real Cundinamarca
- 51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Bogota FC
- 54′🟨 YELLOW · 51' J. Perez · Bogota FC
- 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.5 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 40–46–14
- 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Real Cundinamarca win: 61% at kick-off, 40% now
- 55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Real Cundinamarca win 40%)
- 59′We said Real Cundinamarca at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 38%. 0–0 · 38–49–13
- 63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Real Cundinamarca
- 65′We said Real Cundinamarca at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 33–55–12
- 67′🟨 YELLOW · 63' J. Suaza · Real Cundinamarca
- 67′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Bogota FC · On: H. Sandoval Lasso · Off: D. Estupinan
- 67′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Real Cundinamarca · On: Y. Valencia · Off: C. Negrete
- 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Real Cundinamarca win: 61% at kick-off, 30% now
- 71′We said Real Cundinamarca at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 27–62–10
- 73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Bogota FC
- 75′We said Real Cundinamarca at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 23–68–9
- 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Real Cundinamarca win: 61% at kick-off, 20% now
- 78′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Bogota FC · On: J. Palacios · Off: H. Ramos Jaramillo
- 79′We said Real Cundinamarca at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–0 · 18–75–7
- 79′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Bogota FC · On: S. Perea · Off: K. Aladesanmi
- 79′🟨 YELLOW · 72' J. Arango · Bogota FC
- 79′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Bogota FC · On: N. Segura · Off: J. Arango
- 79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Real Cundinamarca · On: C. Rios · Off: K. Cuellar
- 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Real Cundinamarca · On: A. Estupinan · Off: O. Acosta
- 85′We said Real Cundinamarca at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 0–0 · 10–86–4
- 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Real Cundinamarca win: 61% at kick-off, 10% now
- 88′We said Real Cundinamarca at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 0–0 · 7–90–3
- FTFULL TIME Real Cundinamarca 0–0 Bogota FC
- FTReal Cundinamarca 0–0 Bogota FC · Real Cundinamarca win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassReal Cundinamarca are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Real Cundinamarca 61%, draw 23%, Bogota FC 16%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 43%.
Pre-match prediction
Published 14 Oct 22:19 · locked at kick-off
Real Cundinamarca win61%
Bogota FC win16%Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 23:00
VenueEstadio Municipal de Mosquera
Match timeline
All events
Real CundinamarcaMIN
Bogota FCEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Real Cundinamarca
Bogota FC
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Real Cundinamarca
Bogota FC
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off.
Line-ups
Real Cundinamarca
Formation not confirmed
1 M. Valencia
22 E. Ibarguen
4 S. Florez
2 J. Suaza
19 J. Cortes
5 A. Cano
23 K. Vidal
16 C. Zambrano
17 K. Cuellar
9 C. Negrete
20 O. Acosta
Coach · Diego Mazo
Substitutes
33 · J. Lemus
31 · L. Obregon
3 · A. Estupinan
25 · G. Saavedra
26 · J. D. Fernandez
30 · P. de Zubiria
18 · B. Quinonez
7 · Y. Valencia
28 · C. Rios
Bogota FC
Formation not confirmed
12 B. Benitez
32 A. Gutierrez
2 M. Palacios
3 S. Diaz
31 J. Asprilla
8 J. Perez
5 J. Sanchez
81 Y. Mosquera
21 J. Arango
19 D. Estupinan
7 K. Aladesanmi
Coach · –
Substitutes
29 · A. Aguilar
28 · M. Medina
15 · J. Velasco
11 · H. Sandoval Lasso
16 · H. Ramos Jaramillo
36 · J. Palacios
20 · N. Segura
9 · S. Perea
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Real Cundinamarca
Formation not confirmed
1 M. Valencia
22 E. Ibarguen
4 S. Florez
2 J. Suaza
19 J. Cortes
5 A. Cano
23 K. Vidal
16 C. Zambrano
17 K. Cuellar
9 C. Negrete
20 O. Acosta
Coach · Diego Mazo
Substitutes
33 · J. Lemus
31 · L. Obregon
3 · A. Estupinan
25 · G. Saavedra
26 · J. D. Fernandez
30 · P. de Zubiria
18 · B. Quinonez
7 · Y. Valencia
28 · C. Rios
Bogota FC
Formation not confirmed
12 B. Benitez
32 A. Gutierrez
2 M. Palacios
3 S. Diaz
31 J. Asprilla
8 J. Perez
5 J. Sanchez
81 Y. Mosquera
21 J. Arango
19 D. Estupinan
7 K. Aladesanmi
Coach · –
Substitutes
29 · A. Aguilar
28 · M. Medina
15 · J. Velasco
11 · H. Sandoval Lasso
16 · H. Ramos Jaramillo
36 · J. Palacios
20 · N. Segura
9 · S. Perea
We make Real Cundinamarca a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 13 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–0.7.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 63%, 61% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Cundinamarca win | 61% | 48% | +13 |
| Draw | 23% | 29% | −6 |
| Bogota FC win | 16% | 23% | −8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 43% | +3 |
| Both teams to score | 43% | 48% | −5 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | 67% | +4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 24% | 0 |
| Real Cundinamarca or draw | 84% | 77% | +8 |
| Real Cundinamarca clean sheet | 48% | – | – |
| Bogota FC clean sheet | 18% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
6 meetings since 2023Form · last six in Primera B
REAL CUNDINAMARCA
BOGOTA FC
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Internacional Palmira | 33 | 12 | 60 |
| 2 | Envigado | 35 | 15 | 57 |
| 3 | Quindio | 33 | 9 | 57 |
| 4 | Real Cartagena | 35 | 14 | 56 |
| 5 | Union Magdalena | 33 | 14 | 54 |
| 6 | Tigres FC | 33 | 6 | 46 |
| 7 | Ind. Yumbo | 27 | 8 | 43 |
| 8 | Bogota FC | 33 | -7 | 39 |
| 9 | Barranquilla | 33 | -3 | 38 |
| 10 | Real Cundinamarca | 27 | 3 | 36 |
| 11 | Patriotas | 27 | -4 | 35 |
| 12 | Popayan | 27 | -2 | 31 |
| 13 | Orsomarso | 27 | -7 | 30 |
| 14 | Depor FC | 27 | -15 | 24 |
| 15 | Real Santander | 27 | -18 | 22 |
| 16 | Leones FC | 27 | -25 | 21 |
The competition's standings.
Internacional Palmira
Envigado
Quindio
Real Cartagena
Union Magdalena
Tigres FC
Ind. Yumbo
Barranquilla
Patriotas
Popayan
Orsomarso
Depor FC
Real Santander
Leones FC