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Real Cundinamarca v Bogota FC

Real Cundinamarca
0–0Full time
Bogota FC

Primera B · WED 14 OCT · Estadio Municipal de Mosquera

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 01:30
Real Cundinamarca 0–0 Bogota FC REAL CUNDINAMARCA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Real Cundinamarca win61%
The market said48%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.995
The market’s Brier score0.794

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 30 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Real Cundinamarca win at 61%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Real Cundinamarca 61% before kick-off, 62% now. 0–0 · 62–23–15
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Real Cundinamarca v Bogota FC
  4. 11′🟨 YELLOW · 11' Real Cundinamarca
  5. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Real Cundinamarca win: 61% at kick-off, 51% now
  6. 35′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Bogota FC
  7. 38′🟨 YELLOW · 10' E. Ibarguen · Real Cundinamarca
  8. 40′We said Real Cundinamarca at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–36–15
  9. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 33' Bogota FC · On: H. Ramos Jaramillo · Off: J. Sanchez
  10. 45′HALF-TIME Real Cundinamarca 0–0 Bogota FC
  11. 46′🟨 YELLOW · 35' H. Ramos Jaramillo · Bogota FC
  12. 46′SECOND HALF Real Cundinamarca 0–0 Bogota FC
  13. 49′We said Real Cundinamarca at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–41–15
  14. 50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Real Cundinamarca
  15. 51′🟨 YELLOW · 48' O. Acosta · Real Cundinamarca
  16. 51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Bogota FC
  17. 54′🟨 YELLOW · 51' J. Perez · Bogota FC
  18. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.5 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 40–46–14
  19. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Real Cundinamarca win: 61% at kick-off, 40% now
  20. 55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Real Cundinamarca win 40%)
  21. 59′We said Real Cundinamarca at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 38%. 0–0 · 38–49–13
  22. 63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Real Cundinamarca
  23. 65′We said Real Cundinamarca at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 33–55–12
  24. 67′🟨 YELLOW · 63' J. Suaza · Real Cundinamarca
  25. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Bogota FC · On: H. Sandoval Lasso · Off: D. Estupinan
  26. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Real Cundinamarca · On: Y. Valencia · Off: C. Negrete
  27. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Real Cundinamarca win: 61% at kick-off, 30% now
  28. 71′We said Real Cundinamarca at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 27–62–10
  29. 73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Bogota FC
  30. 75′We said Real Cundinamarca at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 23–68–9
  31. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Real Cundinamarca win: 61% at kick-off, 20% now
  32. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Bogota FC · On: J. Palacios · Off: H. Ramos Jaramillo
  33. 79′We said Real Cundinamarca at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–0 · 18–75–7
  34. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Bogota FC · On: S. Perea · Off: K. Aladesanmi
  35. 79′🟨 YELLOW · 72' J. Arango · Bogota FC
  36. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Bogota FC · On: N. Segura · Off: J. Arango
  37. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Real Cundinamarca · On: C. Rios · Off: K. Cuellar
  38. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Real Cundinamarca · On: A. Estupinan · Off: O. Acosta
  39. 85′We said Real Cundinamarca at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 0–0 · 10–86–4
  40. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Real Cundinamarca win: 61% at kick-off, 10% now
  41. 88′We said Real Cundinamarca at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 0–0 · 7–90–3
  42. FTFULL TIME Real Cundinamarca 0–0 Bogota FC
  43. FTReal Cundinamarca 0–0 Bogota FC · Real Cundinamarca win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Real Cundinamarca are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Real Cundinamarca 61%, draw 23%, Bogota FC 16%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Real Cundinamarca v Bogota FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 22:19 · locked at kick-off

Real Cundinamarca win61%
Draw23%
Bogota FC win16%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 23:00

VenueEstadio Municipal de Mosquera

Line-ups

Real Cundinamarca

Bogota FC

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Real Cundinamarca

Bogota FC

5Days since last match3
2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
8Bogota FC33-739
10Real Cundinamarca27336

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Real Cundinamarca

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Valencia

22 E. Ibarguen

4 S. Florez

2 J. Suaza

19 J. Cortes

5 A. Cano

23 K. Vidal

16 C. Zambrano

17 K. Cuellar

9 C. Negrete

20 O. Acosta

Coach · Diego Mazo

Substitutes

33 · J. Lemus

31 · L. Obregon

3 · A. Estupinan

25 · G. Saavedra

26 · J. D. Fernandez

30 · P. de Zubiria

18 · B. Quinonez

7 · Y. Valencia

28 · C. Rios

Bogota FC

Formation not confirmed

12 B. Benitez

32 A. Gutierrez

2 M. Palacios

3 S. Diaz

31 J. Asprilla

8 J. Perez

5 J. Sanchez

81 Y. Mosquera

21 J. Arango

19 D. Estupinan

7 K. Aladesanmi

Coach · –

Substitutes

29 · A. Aguilar

28 · M. Medina

15 · J. Velasco

11 · H. Sandoval Lasso

16 · H. Ramos Jaramillo

36 · J. Palacios

20 · N. Segura

9 · S. Perea

Our number · real cundinamarca winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 22:19 · locked at kick-off
61% The market48%
Us61%
Market48%

We make Real Cundinamarca a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 13 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Real Cundinamarca v Bogota FC1.76 – 0.74
Last six in Primera BW5 D0 L1 · W1 D3 L2
Table places · points 36 v 3910 v 8
The market · Real Cundinamarca win48% · ours 61%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60%65% 9 OCT 06:1814 OCT 20:39
Our probability · real cundinamarca win The market, margin stripped

Published at 63%, 61% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Real Cundinamarca win61%48%+13
Draw23%29%−6
Bogota FC win16%23%−8
Over 2.5 goals45%43%+3
Both teams to score43%48%−5
Over 1.5 goals71%67%+4
Over 3.5 goals24%24%0
Real Cundinamarca or draw84%77%+8
Real Cundinamarca clean sheet48%––
Bogota FC clean sheet18%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.5%
0123450 8.4 6.2 2.3 1 14.5 10.6 3.9 2 12.6 9.2 3.4 3 7.4 5.4 4 3.3 2.4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Real Cundinamarca down, Bogota FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.55 of 6
Both scored4 of 6
Last meetingsBOG 2–2 REA · BOG 0–3 REA · REA 1–2 BOG · BOG 2–2 REA

Form · last six in Primera B

REAL CUNDINAMARCA

WWWWWL2–0 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–1

BOGOTA FC

LDWLDD0–2 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 3–3 · 0–0

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Internacional Palmira331260
2Envigado351557
3Quindio33957
4Real Cartagena351456
5Union Magdalena331454
6Tigres FC33646
7Ind. Yumbo27843
8Bogota FC33-739
9Barranquilla33-338
10Real Cundinamarca27336
11Patriotas27-435
12Popayan27-231
13Orsomarso27-730
14Depor FC27-1524
15Real Santander27-1822
16Leones FC27-2521

The competition's standings.