Real Cartagena v Patriotas prediction · Primera B

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 02:30

Real Cartagena 3–0 Patriotas REAL CARTAGENA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Real Cartagena win~~49%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.397

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.306

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Real Cartagena win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: Real Cartagena was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–26–25
1′KICK-OFF Real Cartagena v Patriotas
34′Real Cartagena find the net on 34′. 0–0 · 41–35–24
35′We published Real Cartagena at 49%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–17–6
35′⚽ GOAL · 34' Real Cartagena 1–0 Patriotas
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Real Cartagena win: 49% at kick-off, 77% now
37′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 77–17–6
45′HALF-TIME Real Cartagena 1–0 Patriotas
45′SECOND HALF Real Cartagena 1–0 Patriotas
47′🟨 YELLOW · 45+3' Patriotas
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Real Cartagena win: 49% at kick-off, 79% now
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Patriotas · On: J. Montes · Off: J. Campana
53′We published Real Cartagena at 49%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
58′A goal for Real Cartagena on 57′. 1–0 · 81–16–3
59′We published Real Cartagena at 49%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–3–0
59′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Real Cartagena · On: J. Rios · Off: J. P. Gallego
59′⚽ GOAL · 57' Real Cartagena 2–0 Patriotas · E. Lopez
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Real Cartagena win: 49% at kick-off, 97% now
69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Real Cartagena
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Real Cartagena win: 49% at kick-off, 99% now
72′Real Cartagena find the net on 71′. 2–0 · 99–1–0
72′We published Real Cartagena at 49%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
72′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Real Cartagena · On: A. Melendez · Off: L. Taffur
72′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Real Cartagena · On: J. Rodriguez · Off: D. Pino
72′⚽ GOAL · 71' Real Cartagena 3–0 Patriotas
73′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
78′J. Aleman scores for Real Cartagena on 72′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Real Cartagena
85′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Real Cartagena · On: M. Manotas · Off: F. Montero
85′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Real Cartagena · On: L. Guevara · Off: J. Aleman
89′PENALTY MISSED · 89' Real Cartagena
90′Full time, 3–0. We called Real Cartagena at 49% — that one lands. 3–0 · 100–0–0
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Patriotas
FTFULL TIME Real Cartagena 3–0 Patriotas
FTReal Cartagena 3–0 Patriotas · Real Cartagena win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Real Cartagena are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Real Cartagena 49%, draw 26%, Patriotas 25%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Real Cartagena v PatriotasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Real Cartagena win49%

Draw26%

Patriotas win25%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 00:00

RoundClausura · matchday 14

Line-ups

Real Cartagena

Patriotas

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Real Cartagena

Patriotas

3Days since last match4

Last match: 16 Oct · the Colombian Primera B

Last match: 15 Oct · the Colombian Primera B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Real Cartagena	36	+14	57
11	Patriotas	28	−5	35

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Real Cartagena

Formation not confirmed

22 G. E. Gomez Tovar

26 C. Graciano

5 J. A. Solarte Espana

24 G. Tegue

6 A. Escobar

14 D. Pino

80 E. Lopez

18 J. P. Gallego

20 L. Taffur

17 J. Aleman

10 F. Montero

Coach · Alvaro Hernandez

Substitutes

1 · A. Montes

28 · C. Paternina

33 · M. Balanta

21 · J. Rodriguez

13 · J. Rios

8 · L. Guevara

99 · D. Castillo

27 · A. Melendez

9 · M. Manotas

Patriotas

Formation not confirmed

26 A. Macea

28 C. S. Salguero Zapata

4 J. Hurtado

22 A. Porras

21 L. Renteria

19 F. Figueroa

6 F. Torres

7 J. Campana

10 K. Alvarez

20 E. Arango

30 M. Gomez

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · Colombiano

3 · D. Montien

5 · E. Zapata

16 · T. Molina

8 · C. Copete

11 · A. Mora

32 · X. Betancurt

14 · J. Montes

24 · J. Sarmiento

Our number · real cartagena winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 17 Oct 00:10 · locked at kick-off

49% The market55%

Us49%

~~Market~~55%

We make Real Cartagena a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Real Cartagena v Patriotas~~1.50 – 1.00

~~Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 12 Sept~~W0 D4 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 57 v 35~~4 v 11

~~The market · Real Cartagena win~~55% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Real Cartagena win The market, margin stripped

Published at 48%, 49% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Real Cartagena win	49%	55%	−6
Draw	26%	26%	0
Patriotas win	25%	19%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	46%	48%	−2
Both teams to score	49%	50%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	71%	71%	0
Over 3.5 goals	24%	29%	−5
Real Cartagena or draw	75%	81%	−6
Real Cartagena clean sheet	37%	–	–
Patriotas clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.3%

0123450 8.4 8.2 4.2 1 12.3 12.2 6.1 2.1 2 9.2 9.1 4.6 3 4.6 4.6 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Real Cartagena down, Patriotas across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,743 Primera B matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera B matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.8% of games this season, across 251 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.71 goals a meeting; 4 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Real Cartagena at home: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Patriotas away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Real Cartagena, 1.00 for Patriotas. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.71

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 7

~~Both scored~~4 of 7

~~Last meetings~~PAT 1–0 REA · REA 0–1 PAT · PAT 2–2 REA · PAT 3–1 REA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 12 Sept

REAL CARTAGENA

LDDLDD1–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 1–1

PATRIOTAS

WLLLDL2–1 · 1–2 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 0–1

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Envigado	37	+16	61
2	Internacional Palmira	34	+12	61
3	Quindio	34	+9	58
4	Real Cartagena	36	+14	57
5	Union Magdalena	34	+14	55
6	Tigres FC	34	+6	47
7	Ind. Yumbo	28	+8	44
8	Bogota FC	34	−7	40
9	Barranquilla	35	−4	39
10	Real Cundinamarca	28	+3	37
11	Patriotas	28	−5	35
12	Popayan	28	−3	31
13	Orsomarso	28	−7	31
14	Depor FC	28	−14	27
15	Leones FC	28	−24	24
16	Real Santander	28	−18	23