Quindio v Tigres FC prediction · Primera B

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 00:01

Quindio 2–0 Tigres FC QUINDIO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Quindio win~~45%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.456

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.278

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Quindio win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Quindio 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–31–24
1′KICK-OFF Quindio v Tigres FC
18′SUBSTITUTION · 12' Tigres FC · On: S. Guzman · Off: J. Meneses
34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Quindio win 39%)
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Quindio win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
40′We said Quindio at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Quindio 1–0 Tigres FC
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Quindio win: 45% at kick-off, 80% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Quindio win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 44%)
41′Quindio find the net on 40′. 1–0. 1–0 · 80–17–4
41′The goal count is tracking the 1.9 we expected. 1–0 · 80–17–4
45′HALF-TIME Quindio 1–0 Tigres FC
45′SECOND HALF Quindio 1–0 Tigres FC
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Quindio · On: A. Tello · Off: F. Mosquera
62′We said Quindio at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Quindio win: 45% at kick-off, 85% now
67′We said Quindio at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Quindio 2–0 Tigres FC
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Quindio win: 45% at kick-off, 99% now
69′A goal for Quindio on 68′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
77′We said Quindio at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Quindio · On: F. Valencia · Off: S. Roa
88′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Quindio · On: J. Cordoba · Off: Y. Torres
88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Quindio · On: M. Bacca · Off: A. Alvarez
88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Quindio · On: J. S. Ortiz · Off: M. Castano
89′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Quindio · On: J. Delgado · Off: J. Ibarguen
90′2–0 at the end. Our 45% on Quindio comes in. 2–0 · 100–0–0
90′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Tigres FC · On: Cardona · Off: S. Cardenas Pico
91′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Tigres FC · On: W. S. Mena · Off: J. P. Ramirez Acosta
91′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Tigres FC · On: J. Mena · Off: F. Granada
FTFULL TIME Quindio 2–0 Tigres FC
FTQuindio 2–0 Tigres FC · Quindio win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Quindio are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Quindio 45%, draw 31%, Tigres FC 24%. Over 2.5 goals 30%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on Quindio v Tigres FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Quindio win45%

Draw31%

Tigres FC win24%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 21:30

RoundClausura · matchday 15

VenueEstadio Centenario

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Quindio

Tigres FC

4Days since last match4

Last match: 20 Oct · the Colombian Primera B

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Quindio	35	+10	61
6	Tigres FC	35	+6	48

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · quindio winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

45% The market57%

Us45%

~~Market~~57%

We make Quindio a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Quindio v Tigres FC~~1.15 – 0.76

~~Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 21 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D4 L0

~~Table places · points 61 v 48~~3 v 6

~~The market · Quindio win~~57% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Quindio win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Quindio win	45%	57%	−12
Draw	31%	26%	+5
Tigres FC win	24%	16%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	30%	42%	−12
Both teams to score	36%	43%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	57%	66%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	13%	23%	−10
Quindio or draw	76%	84%	−8
Quindio clean sheet	47%	–	–
Tigres FC clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.2%

0123450 15.0 11.3 4.3 1 17.2 12.7 4.8 2 9.8 7.3 2.8 3 3.8 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Quindio down, Tigres FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,750 Primera B matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera B matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.6% of games this season, across 258 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.70 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Quindio at home: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Tigres FC away: 1.83 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.15 goals for Quindio, 0.76 for Tigres FC. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.70

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~TIG 0–1 QUI · QUI 1–0 TIG · TIG 0–1 QUI · QUI 2–1 TIG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 21 Sept

QUINDIO

LWWLDW1–3 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 1–0

TIGRES FC

WDWDDD3–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–0

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Envigado	37	+16	61
2	Internacional Palmira	35	+11	61
3	Quindio	35	+10	61
4	Real Cartagena	37	+17	60
5	Union Magdalena	35	+15	58
6	Tigres FC	35	+6	48
7	Ind. Yumbo	29	+11	47
8	Bogota FC	35	−6	43
9	Barranquilla	35	−4	39
10	Real Cundinamarca	29	+3	38
11	Patriotas	29	−8	35
12	Popayan	29	−6	31
13	Orsomarso	29	−8	31
14	Depor FC	29	−15	27
15	Real Santander	29	−17	26
16	Leones FC	29	−25	24