Popayan v Depor FC prediction · Primera B

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 01:40

Popayan 0–1 Depor FC POPAYAN WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Popayan win~~55%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.005

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.792

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Popayan win at 55%.
1′Much as we predicted: Popayan was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 55–25–20
1′KICK-OFF Popayan v Depor FC
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Popayan win: 55% at kick-off, 45% now
41′We said Popayan at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 43%. 0–0 · 43–38–19
45′HALF-TIME Popayan 0–0 Depor FC
46′SECOND HALF Popayan 0–0 Depor FC
50′We said Popayan at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–43–17
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Popayan win 39%)
56′We expected about 2.5 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 36–48–16
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Popayan win: 55% at kick-off, 35% now
59′We said Popayan at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–50–16
60′Depor FC find the net on 60′. 0–1. 0–1 · 8–25–67
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Popayan 0–1 Depor FC
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Popayan win: 55% at kick-off, 8% now
60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Depor FC win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 25%)
61′We said Popayan at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 0–1 · 8–25–67
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Popayan win: 55% at kick-off, 5% now
70′We said Popayan at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–74
70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Depor FC
FTFULL TIME Popayan 0–1 Depor FC
FTPopayan 0–1 Depor FC · Popayan win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Popayan are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Popayan 55%, draw 25%, Depor FC 20%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Popayan v Depor FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Popayan win55%

Draw25%

Depor FC win20%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 23:00

RoundClausura · matchday 13

Line-ups

Popayan

Depor FC

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Popayan

Depor FC

4Days since last match8

Last match: 12 Oct · the Colombian Primera B

Last match: 8 Oct · the Colombian Primera B

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Popayan	27	−2	31
14	Depor FC	27	−15	24

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Popayan

Formation not confirmed

12 E. Obando

18 H. Mosquera

20 Y. Moran

3 K. Hurtado

26 H. Ortiz

25 A. Mancilla

35 J. Viveros

21 P. Urrutia

17 J. Andrade

10 J. Aponza

34 D. Cortes

Coach · Manuel Rodriguez Becerra Jose

Substitutes

1 · S. Hoyos

4 · S. Llanos

27 · J. Salcedo

19 · C. Yepes

5 · S. Munoz

23 · M. Lucumi

8 · J. Rincon

13 · F. Nagles

2 · J. Montano

Depor FC

Formation not confirmed

12 J. Munera

2 F. Villa

3 J. Mena

7 J. Delgado

9 A. Onate

10 G. Eraso

15 J. Veira

20 J. Perdomo

22 A. Valencia

24 S. Saavedra

27 C. Cano

Coach · Victor Sicacha

Substitutes

5 · J. Julio

6 · N. Hernandez

8 · C. Restrepo

11 · C. Cabezas

13 · J. Galindo

18 · K. Angulo

19 · J. Cortes

31 · J. Mina

4 · J. Zamora

Our number · popayan winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 14 Oct 04:37 · locked at kick-off

55% The market44%

Us55%

~~Market~~44%

We make Popayan a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Popayan v Depor FC~~1.60 – 0.85

~~Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 9 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 31 v 24~~12 v 14

~~The market · Popayan win~~44% · ours 55%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Popayan win The market, margin stripped

Published at 56%, 55% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Popayan win	55%	44%	+11
Draw	25%	29%	−4
Depor FC win	20%	28%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	44%	47%	−3
Both teams to score	45%	52%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	70%	71%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	23%	27%	−4
Popayan or draw	80%	72%	+8
Popayan clean sheet	43%	–	–
Depor FC clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.7%

0123450 8.9 7.3 3.1 1 13.7 11.7 4.9 2 11.0 9.2 3.9 3 5.9 4.9 2.1 4 2.4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Popayan down, Depor FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,740 Primera B matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera B matches have gone over 2.5 in 38.3% of games this season, across 248 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Popayan at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Depor FC away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.60 goals for Popayan, 0.85 for Depor FC. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DEP 1–1 POP · DEP 0–1 POP · POP 1–2 DEP · POP 2–1 DEP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 9 Sept

POPAYAN

WWWWDL2–0 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 0–1

DEPOR FC

WWLLLD1–0 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 2–2

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Internacional Palmira	34	+12	61
2	Envigado	36	+15	58
3	Quindio	34	+9	58
4	Real Cartagena	36	+14	57
5	Union Magdalena	34	+14	55
6	Tigres FC	34	+6	47
7	Ind. Yumbo	28	+8	44
8	Bogota FC	34	−7	40
9	Barranquilla	34	−3	39
10	Real Cundinamarca	28	+3	37
11	Patriotas	28	−5	35
12	Popayan	27	−2	31
13	Orsomarso	28	−7	31
14	Depor FC	27	−15	24
15	Leones FC	28	−24	24
16	Real Santander	28	−18	23