Patriotas v Envigado prediction · Primera B

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 00:01

Patriotas 0–2 Envigado PATRIOTAS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Patriotas win~~38%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.688

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.858

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Patriotas win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Patriotas was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–29–32
1′KICK-OFF Patriotas v Envigado
2′A red card for Patriotas on 2′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 38–30–32
2′🟥 RED CARD · 2' Patriotas
22′Envigado find the net on 21′. 0–0 · 35–35–30
23′We said Patriotas at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 12%. 0–1 · 12–23–65
23′⚽ GOAL · 21' Patriotas 0–1 Envigado
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Patriotas win: 38% at kick-off, 12% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Envigado win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Patriotas win 35%)
24′22′: C. Nieva on the scoresheet for Envigado, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 12–23–65
25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Patriotas
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 0–1 · 10–23–67
32′Envigado find the net on 32′. 0–2. 0–2 · 2–8–90
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Patriotas 0–2 Envigado
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Patriotas win: 38% at kick-off, 2% now
33′We said Patriotas at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 0–2 · 2–8–90
37′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Envigado
41′SUBSTITUTION · 35' Patriotas · On: C. S. Salguero Zapata · Off: K. Alvarez
45′HALF-TIME Patriotas 0–2 Envigado
45′SECOND HALF Patriotas 0–2 Envigado
48′🟨 YELLOW · 45+3' Envigado
48′🟨 YELLOW · 37' J. Palacios · Envigado
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Envigado · On: J. Catano · Off: J. Aristizabal
53′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Envigado
54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Patriotas
71′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Patriotas · On: J. Montes · Off: J. Campana
73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Envigado
84′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Envigado · On: E. Londono · Off: C. Nieva
85′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Patriotas · On: C. Copete · Off: M. Gomez
85′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Envigado · On: B. Tenorio · Off: D. A. Valencia Mosquera
85′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Envigado · On: A. Rodriguez · Off: M. Marulanda
85′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Envigado · On: D. Dawson · Off: S. Acuna
88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Patriotas
FTFULL TIME Patriotas 0–2 Envigado
FTPatriotas 0–2 Envigado · Patriotas win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Patriotas are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Patriotas 38%, draw 29%, Envigado 32%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Patriotas v EnvigadoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Patriotas win38%

Draw29%

Envigado win32%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 21:30

RoundClausura · matchday 15

VenueEstadio La Independencia

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Patriotas

Envigado

5Days since last match6

Last match: 20 Oct · the Colombian Primera B

Last match: 18 Oct · the Colombian Primera B

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · patriotas winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 20 Oct 02:36 · locked at kick-off

38% The market46%

Us38%

~~Market~~46%

We make Patriotas a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Patriotas v Envigado~~1.13 – 1.02

~~Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 18 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W2 D4 L0

~~Table places · points 35 v 61~~11 v 1

~~The market · Patriotas win~~46% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Patriotas win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Patriotas win	38%	46%	−8
Draw	29%	29%	0
Envigado win	32%	25%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	36%	44%	−8
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	63%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	17%	–	–
Patriotas or draw	68%	75%	−7
Patriotas clean sheet	36%	–	–
Envigado clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.2%

0123450 11.7 11.9 6.0 2.1 1 13.2 13.2 6.7 2.3 2 7.5 7.5 3.8 3 2.9 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Patriotas down, Envigado across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,750 Primera B matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera B matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.6% of games this season, across 258 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 1.86 goals a meeting; 2 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Patriotas at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Envigado away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Patriotas, 1.02 for Envigado. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.86

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 7

~~Both scored~~1 of 7

~~Last meetings~~ENV 2–0 PAT · PAT 2–0 ENV · ENV 1–0 PAT · ENV 3–2 PAT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 18 Sept

PATRIOTAS

LLLDLL1–2 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–3

ENVIGADO

WDDDDW3–0 · 0–0 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Envigado	37	+16	61
2	Internacional Palmira	35	+11	61
3	Quindio	35	+10	61
4	Real Cartagena	37	+17	60
5	Union Magdalena	35	+15	58
6	Tigres FC	35	+6	48
7	Ind. Yumbo	29	+11	47
8	Bogota FC	35	−6	43
9	Barranquilla	35	−4	39
10	Real Cundinamarca	29	+3	38
11	Patriotas	29	−8	35
12	Popayan	29	−6	31
13	Orsomarso	29	−8	31
14	Depor FC	29	−15	27
15	Real Santander	29	−17	26
16	Leones FC	29	−25	24