Orsomarso v Popayan prediction · Primera B

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 00:00

Orsomarso 1–0 Popayan ORSOMARSO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Orsomarso win~~40%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.546

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.496

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Orsomarso win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Orsomarso was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–32–29
1′KICK-OFF Orsomarso v Popayan
38′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Orsomarso
45′HALF-TIME Orsomarso 0–0 Popayan
46′SECOND HALF Orsomarso 0–0 Popayan
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Orsomarso 1–0 Popayan
FTFULL TIME Orsomarso 1–0 Popayan
FTOrsomarso 1–0 Popayan · Orsomarso win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 21:19 · locked at kick-off

Orsomarso win40%

Draw31%

Popayan win29%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 21:30

VenueEstadio Daniel Villa Zapata

Line-ups

Orsomarso

Popayan

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Orsomarso

Popayan

6Days since last match5

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Popayan	26	−1	31
13	Orsomarso	26	−8	27

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Orsomarso

Formation not confirmed

1 I. Blanco

6 Y. Valencia

5 D. Barrios

32 J. Barreiro

26 S. Gonzalez

27 K. M. Gomez

13 D. Matamba

24 A. Ruiz

16 B. Caicedo

7 B. Campaz

9 S. Arrechea

Coach · Stiven Sanchez Pena

Substitutes

30 · C. Cossio

2 · N. Vargas

11 · M. Preciado

14 · Zarante

23 · F. Marulanda

– · J. Villarreal

– · J. Contreras

29 · S. Martinez

– · M. Ruiz

Popayan

Formation not confirmed

12 E. Obando

18 H. Mosquera

26 H. Ortiz

2 J. Montano

3 K. Hurtado

20 Y. Moran

17 J. Andrade

35 J. Viveros

34 D. Cortes

21 P. Urrutia

10 J. Aponza

Coach · Manuel Rodriguez Becerra Jose

Substitutes

1 · S. Hoyos

4 · S. Llanos

27 · J. Salcedo

7 · J. Cuero

31 · D. Diaz

– · S. Munoz

23 · M. Lucumi

– · J. Rincon

13 · F. Nagles

Our number · orsomarso winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 21:19 · locked at kick-off

40% The market43%

Us40%

~~Market~~43%

We make Orsomarso a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · orsomarso win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Orsomarso win	40%	43%	−3
Draw	31%	30%	+1
Popayan win	29%	27%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	30%	41%	−11
Both teams to score	38%	47%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	57%	66%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	13%	22%	−9
Orsomarso or draw	71%	73%	−2
Orsomarso clean sheet	42%	–	–
Popayan clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.5%

0123450 14.8 12.5 5.4 1 15.5 13.2 5.7 2 8.2 7.0 3.0 3 3.0 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Orsomarso down, Popayan across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,733 Primera B matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera B matches have gone over 2.5 in 39.0% of games this season, across 241 played.

Head to head

11 previous meetings, 1.82 goals a meeting; 5 of 11 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Orsomarso at home: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Popayan away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.07 goals for Orsomarso, 0.86 for Popayan. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

11 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.82

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 11

~~Both scored~~4 of 11

~~Last meetings~~POP 2–2 ORS · ORS 0–3 POP · POP 0–1 ORS · POP 0–0 ORS

Form · last six in Primera B

ORSOMARSO

LLDLDL0–2 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 3–4 · 0–0 · 0–1

POPAYAN

DWWWWD2–2 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 3–2 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Internacional Palmira	33	+12	60
2	Envigado	35	+15	57
3	Quindio	33	+9	57
4	Real Cartagena	35	+14	56
5	Union Magdalena	33	+14	54
6	Tigres FC	33	+6	46
7	Ind. Yumbo	27	+8	43
8	Bogota FC	33	−7	39
9	Barranquilla	33	−3	38
10	Real Cundinamarca	27	+3	36
11	Patriotas	27	−4	35
12	Popayan	26	−1	31
13	Orsomarso	26	−8	27
14	Depor FC	27	−15	24
15	Real Santander	27	−18	22
16	Leones FC	27	−25	21