Leones FC v Patriotas prediction · Primera B

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 01:45

Leones FC 1–0 Patriotas PATRIOTAS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Patriotas win~~42%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.742

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.738

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Patriotas win at 42%.
1′KICK-OFF Leones FC v Patriotas
2′Little has changed for our model: Patriotas 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 30–28–42
40′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Patriotas
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Patriotas win 34%)
43′SUBSTITUTION · 30' Patriotas · On: Carabali · Off: S. E. Bello Vivas
43′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Leones FC
45′HALF-TIME Leones FC 0–0 Patriotas
45′SECOND HALF Leones FC 0–0 Patriotas
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' Patriotas
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Patriotas win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
48′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Patriotas
53′We said Patriotas at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 30%. 0–0 · 23–47–30
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.4 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 25–42–33
55′We said Patriotas at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 22–48–29
66′We said Patriotas at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 18–58–24
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Patriotas · On: J. Ruiz · Off: E. Zapata
67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Patriotas · On: J. Sarmiento · Off: C. Copete
68′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Patriotas · On: E. Arango · Off: J. Campana
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Patriotas win: 42% at kick-off, 22% now
69′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Leones FC · On: S. Montoya · Off: J. Castano
69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Leones FC
69′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Leones FC · On: L. Pacheco · Off: O. Segura
69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Patriotas
72′We said Patriotas at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 15–65–19
72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Leones FC
74′🟨 YELLOW · 69' T. Soto · Leones FC
74′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Leones FC · On: J. Martinez · Off: R. Granados
75′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Leones FC · On: L. Sanches · Off: T. Soto
77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Patriotas
78′We said Patriotas at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 11–74–14
80′We said Patriotas at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 1–0 · 88–11–1
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Patriotas win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Leones FC 1–0 Patriotas
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Patriotas win: 42% at kick-off, 1% now
80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Leones FC win is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Draw 11%)
82′Leones FC find the net on 80′. 1–0. 1–0 · 90–10–1
FTFULL TIME Leones FC 1–0 Patriotas
FTLeones FC 1–0 Patriotas · Patriotas win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Patriotas are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Leones FC 30%, draw 27%, Patriotas 42%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Leones FC v PatriotasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Leones FC win30%

Draw27%

Patriotas win42%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 23:15

RoundClausura · matchday 13

VenueEstadio Metropolitano Ciudad de Itagui

Line-ups

Leones FC

Patriotas

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Leones FC

Patriotas

4Days since last match4

Last match: 11 Oct · the Colombian Primera B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Patriotas	27	−4	35
16	Leones FC	27	−25	21

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Leones FC

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Figueroa

5 G. Meneses

3 J. Moreno

22 J. Restrepo

16 J. Renteria

30 R. Granados

8 D. Villa

29 T. Soto

21 O. Segura

7 C. Rodriguez Cespedes

27 J. Castano

Coach · Felipe Merino

Substitutes

12 · J. Arboleda

35 · J. Echeverry

15 · J. Martinez

19 · J. Martinez

25 · T. Calle

10 · L. Sanches

24 · S. Montoya

23 · L. Pacheco

32 · E. Pasos

Patriotas

Formation not confirmed

26 A. Macea

4 J. Hurtado

5 E. Zapata

6 F. Torres

7 J. Campana

8 C. Copete

10 K. Alvarez

19 F. Figueroa

21 L. Renteria

22 A. Porras

25 S. E. Bello Vivas

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · Colombiano

2 · Carabali

3 · D. Montien

11 · A. Mora

16 · T. Molina

20 · E. Arango

24 · J. Sarmiento

38 · J. Ruiz

Our number · patriotas winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 15 Oct 20:34 · locked at kick-off

42% The market40%

Us42%

~~Market~~40%

We make Patriotas a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.1–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Leones FC v Patriotas~~1.08 – 1.33

~~Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 4 Sept~~W0 D3 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 21 v 35~~16 v 11

~~The market · Patriotas win~~40% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Patriotas win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Leones FC win	30%	30%	0
Draw	27%	30%	−3
Patriotas win	42%	40%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	43%	42%	+1
Both teams to score	48%	49%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	69%	66%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	22%	23%	−1
Leones FC or draw	58%	60%	−2
Leones FC clean sheet	27%	–	–
Patriotas clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 9.2 12.0 8.0 3.6 1 9.7 12.8 8.4 3.8 2 5.2 6.8 4.5 2.0 3 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Leones FC down, Patriotas across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,735 Primera B matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera B matches have gone over 2.5 in 38.7% of games this season, across 243 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Leones FC at home: 0.83 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Patriotas away: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.08 goals for Leones FC, 1.33 for Patriotas. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~PAT 1–0 LEO · LEO 0–1 PAT · PAT 3–1 LEO · PAT 1–3 LEO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 4 Sept

LEONES FC

LDLLDD0–3 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–2

PATRIOTAS

WWLLLD3–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 0–0

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Internacional Palmira	33	+12	60
2	Envigado	35	+15	57
3	Quindio	33	+9	57
4	Real Cartagena	35	+14	56
5	Union Magdalena	33	+14	54
6	Tigres FC	33	+6	46
7	Ind. Yumbo	27	+8	43
8	Bogota FC	34	−7	40
9	Barranquilla	33	−3	38
10	Real Cundinamarca	28	+3	37
11	Patriotas	27	−4	35
12	Popayan	27	−2	31
13	Orsomarso	27	−7	30
14	Depor FC	27	−15	24
15	Real Santander	27	−18	22
16	Leones FC	27	−25	21