Leones FC v Orsomarso prediction · Primera B

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Leones FC are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Leones FC 38%, draw 30%, Orsomarso 32%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Leones FC v OrsomarsoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Leones FC win38%

Draw30%

Orsomarso win32%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 21:30

RoundClausura · matchday 15

VenueEstadio Metropolitano Ciudad de Itagui

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Leones FC

Orsomarso

5Days since last match5

Last match: 19 Oct · the Colombian Primera B

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Orsomarso	29	−8	31
16	Leones FC	29	−25	24

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · leones fc winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

38% The market35%

Us38%

~~Market~~35%

We make Leones FC a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Leones FC v Orsomarso~~1.09 – 0.98

~~Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 19 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 24 v 31~~16 v 13

~~The market · Leones FC win~~35% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Leones FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Leones FC win	38%	35%	+3
Draw	30%	29%	+1
Orsomarso win	32%	36%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	34%	46%	−12
Both teams to score	41%	52%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	61%	70%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	16%	25%	−9
Leones FC or draw	68%	64%	+4
Leones FC clean sheet	38%	–	–
Orsomarso clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.8%

0123450 12.6 12.4 6.1 2.0 1 13.8 13.2 6.5 2.2 2 7.5 7.3 3.6 3 2.8 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Leones FC down, Orsomarso across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,750 Primera B matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera B matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.6% of games this season, across 258 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Leones FC at home: 0.83 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Orsomarso away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.09 goals for Leones FC, 0.98 for Orsomarso. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~LEO 2–0 ORS · ORS 0–0 LEO · LEO 0–1 ORS · ORS 2–3 LEO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 19 Sept

LEONES FC

LLDDWL1–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 0–1

ORSOMARSO

LDLWDL3–4 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Envigado	37	+16	61
2	Internacional Palmira	35	+11	61
3	Quindio	35	+10	61
4	Real Cartagena	37	+17	60
5	Union Magdalena	35	+15	58
6	Tigres FC	35	+6	48
7	Ind. Yumbo	29	+11	47
8	Bogota FC	35	−6	43
9	Barranquilla	35	−4	39
10	Real Cundinamarca	29	+3	38
11	Patriotas	29	−8	35
12	Popayan	29	−6	31
13	Orsomarso	29	−8	31
14	Depor FC	29	−15	27
15	Real Santander	29	−17	26
16	Leones FC	29	−25	24