Internacional Palmira v Union Magdalena prediction · Primera B

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 00:30

Internacional Palmira 0–1 Union Magdalena INTERNACIONAL PALMIRA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Internacional Palmira win~~38%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.675

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.823

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Internacional Palmira win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Internacional Palmira 38% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–30–33
1′KICK-OFF Internacional Palmira v Union Magdalena
25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Union Magdalena
30′THE CALL SWINGS · 30' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Internacional Palmira win 35%)
38′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Internacional Palmira
45′HALF-TIME Internacional Palmira 0–0 Union Magdalena
46′SECOND HALF Internacional Palmira 0–0 Union Magdalena
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Internacional Palmira win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
50′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Union Magdalena
53′We said Internacional Palmira at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 0–0 · 26–50–24
58′We said Internacional Palmira at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–53–22
59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Union Magdalena
62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Internacional Palmira
68′We said Internacional Palmira at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–63–18
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Internacional Palmira win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
76′We said Internacional Palmira at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–73–13
82′We said Internacional Palmira at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–83–8
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Internacional Palmira win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
85′Union Magdalena score on 85′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 0–6–94
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Internacional Palmira 0–1 Union Magdalena
85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Union Magdalena win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 88%)
86′We said Internacional Palmira at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at under 1%. 0–1 · 0–6–94
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Internacional Palmira
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Union Magdalena
FTFULL TIME Internacional Palmira 0–1 Union Magdalena
FTInternacional Palmira 0–1 Union Magdalena · Internacional Palmira win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Internacional Palmira are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Internacional Palmira 38%, draw 29%, Union Magdalena 33%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Internacional Palmira v Union MagdalenaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Internacional Palmira win38%

Draw29%

Union Magdalena win33%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 22:00

RoundClausura · matchday 14

VenueFrancisco Rivera Escobar

Line-ups

Internacional Palmira

Union Magdalena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Internacional Palmira

Union Magdalena

4Days since last match4

Last match: 16 Oct · the Colombian Primera B

Last match: 15 Oct · the Colombian Primera B

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Internacional Palmira	34	+12	61
5	Union Magdalena	34	+14	55

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Internacional Palmira

Formation not confirmed

22 W. Cuesta

4 Y. Ariza

7 J. Mosquera

11 Padilla Kevin

18 J. Mosquera

19 K. Gonzalez

23 R. Correa

25 A. Alvarez

30 J. E. Mina Chara

31 J. Popo

80 H. Suarez

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · A. Perez

28 · J. Abonia

15 · J. Maturana

34 · E. Velez

10 · J. Cardona

14 · D. Orozco

21 · J. Moreno

26 · L. Baggio

32 · E. Viveros

Union Magdalena

Formation not confirmed

34 M. Tasso

3 D. Mera

6 D. Ortiz

25 W. Sagrera

18 F. Molina

16 O. Surmay

19 F. Mosquera

2 M. Ballesteros

15 R. Rodriguez

7 R. Blanco

14 J. Farias

Coach · Carlos Silva

Substitutes

1 · V. Cabezas

4 · R. Delvalle

8 · V. Prado

23 · J. Congo

28 · K. Salazar

22 · J. Giraldo

29 · J. Pimienta

9 · C. Iguaran

17 · G. Arrieta

Our number · internacional palmira winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

38% The market44%

Us38%

~~Market~~44%

We make Internacional Palmira a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Internacional Palmira v Union Magdalena~~1.13 – 1.04

~~Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D4 L0

~~Table places · points 61 v 55~~2 v 5

~~The market · Internacional Palmira win~~44% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Internacional Palmira win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Internacional Palmira win	38%	44%	−6
Draw	29%	29%	0
Union Magdalena win	33%	26%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	37%	45%	−8
Both teams to score	43%	50%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	64%	68%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	18%	25%	−7
Internacional Palmira or draw	67%	74%	−7
Internacional Palmira clean sheet	36%	–	–
Union Magdalena clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 11.7 11.9 6.2 2.2 1 12.9 13.3 6.9 2.4 2 7.3 7.5 3.9 3 2.8 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Internacional Palmira down, Union Magdalena across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,743 Primera B matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera B matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.8% of games this season, across 251 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 1.67 goals a meeting; 0 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Internacional Palmira at home: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Union Magdalena away: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Internacional Palmira, 1.04 for Union Magdalena. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 3

~~Both scored~~0 of 3

~~Last meetings~~UNI 0–2 INT · UNI 1–0 INT · INT 0–2 UNI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 12 Sept

INTERNACIONAL PALMIRA

WWWLDD2–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

UNION MAGDALENA

WDWDDD2–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Envigado	37	+16	61
2	Internacional Palmira	34	+12	61
3	Quindio	34	+9	58
4	Real Cartagena	36	+14	57
5	Union Magdalena	34	+14	55
6	Tigres FC	34	+6	47
7	Ind. Yumbo	28	+8	44
8	Bogota FC	34	−7	40
9	Barranquilla	35	−4	39
10	Real Cundinamarca	28	+3	37
11	Patriotas	28	−5	35
12	Popayan	28	−3	31
13	Orsomarso	28	−7	31
14	Depor FC	28	−14	27
15	Leones FC	28	−24	24
16	Real Santander	28	−18	23