

Internacional Palmira v Orsomarso
Internacional Palmira
OrsomarsoPrimera B · FRI 16 OCT · Francisco Rivera Escobar
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Internacional Palmira win at 49%.
- 1′KICK-OFF Internacional Palmira v Orsomarso
- 2′Much as we predicted: Internacional Palmira was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–30–21
- 8′🟨 YELLOW · 8' Orsomarso
- 16′We said Internacional Palmira at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 0–1 · 18–27–54
- 16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Internacional Palmira 0–1 Orsomarso
- 16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Internacional Palmira win: 49% at kick-off, 18% now
- 16′THE CALL SWINGS · 16' Orsomarso win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Internacional Palmira win 18%)
- 17′Orsomarso score on 17′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 18–27–55
- 23′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Internacional Palmira
- 30′We said Internacional Palmira at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–27–58
- 31′Goals are coming at about the 1.9 we expected. 0–1 · 14–27–59
- 45′HALF-TIME Internacional Palmira 1–1 Orsomarso
- 46′We said Internacional Palmira at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 35%. 1–1 · 35–47–17
- 46′Internacional Palmira find the net on 45′. 1–1. 1–1 · 35–47–17
- 46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Internacional Palmira 1–1 Orsomarso
- 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' Internacional Palmira win: 49% at kick-off, 35% now
- 46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Orsomarso win 17%)
- 46′SECOND HALF Internacional Palmira 1–1 Orsomarso
- 49′We said Internacional Palmira at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–49–17
- 51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Orsomarso
- 58′We said Internacional Palmira at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–56–15
- 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Internacional Palmira win: 49% at kick-off, 29% now
- 64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Internacional Palmira
- 66′We said Internacional Palmira at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–63–13
- 71′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Orsomarso · On: S. Martinez · Off: S. Arrechea
- 72′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Orsomarso · On: J. Villarreal · Off: A. Ruiz
- 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Internacional Palmira win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
- 73′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Internacional Palmira · On: J. Cardona · Off: J. Mosquera
- 76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Internacional Palmira · On: E. Velez · Off: J. Mosquera
- 77′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Internacional Palmira · On: R. Brochero · Off: R. Correa
- 83′We said Internacional Palmira at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–86–5
- 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Internacional Palmira win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
- 86′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Internacional Palmira · On: D. Orozco · Off: A. Alvarez
- 90′We said Internacional Palmira at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–94–2
- 95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Orsomarso
- FTFULL TIME Internacional Palmira 1–1 Orsomarso
- FTInternacional Palmira 1–1 Orsomarso · Internacional Palmira win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassInternacional Palmira are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Internacional Palmira 49%, draw 30%, Orsomarso 21%. Over 2.5 goals 31%, both teams to score 35%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off
Internacional Palmira win49%
Orsomarso win21%Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 00:00
RoundClausura · matchday 13
VenueFrancisco Rivera Escobar
Match timeline
All events
Internacional PalmiraMIN
OrsomarsoEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Internacional Palmira
Orsomarso
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Internacional Palmira
Orsomarso
Last match: 11 Oct · the Colombian Primera B
Last match: 12 Oct · the Colombian Primera B
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Internacional Palmira
Formation not confirmed
22 W. Cuesta
31 J. Popo
30 J. E. Mina Chara
4 Y. Ariza
25 A. Alvarez
80 H. Suarez
19 K. Gonzalez
11 Padilla Kevin
7 J. Mosquera
18 J. Mosquera
23 R. Correa
Coach · –
Substitutes
1 · A. Perez
9 · R. Brochero
10 · J. Cardona
14 · D. Orozco
16 · B. Ortiz
21 · J. Moreno
28 · J. Abonia
32 · E. Viveros
34 · E. Velez
Orsomarso
Formation not confirmed
12 I. Blanco
28 Y. Valencia
5 D. Barrios
13 J. Barreiro
26 S. Gonzalez
15 K. M. Gomez
22 D. Matamba
10 A. Ruiz
7 B. Caicedo
24 B. Campaz
9 S. Arrechea
Coach · Stiven Sanchez Pena
Substitutes
30 · C. Cossio
2 · N. Vargas
6 · S. Agamez
11 · M. Preciado
14 · Zarante
25 · J. Villarreal
27 · J. Contreras
29 · S. Martinez
23 · F. Marulanda
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Internacional Palmira
Formation not confirmed
22 W. Cuesta
31 J. Popo
30 J. E. Mina Chara
4 Y. Ariza
25 A. Alvarez
80 H. Suarez
19 K. Gonzalez
11 Padilla Kevin
7 J. Mosquera
18 J. Mosquera
23 R. Correa
Coach · –
Substitutes
1 · A. Perez
9 · R. Brochero
10 · J. Cardona
14 · D. Orozco
16 · B. Ortiz
21 · J. Moreno
28 · J. Abonia
32 · E. Viveros
34 · E. Velez
Orsomarso
Formation not confirmed
12 I. Blanco
28 Y. Valencia
5 D. Barrios
13 J. Barreiro
26 S. Gonzalez
15 K. M. Gomez
22 D. Matamba
10 A. Ruiz
7 B. Caicedo
24 B. Campaz
9 S. Arrechea
Coach · Stiven Sanchez Pena
Substitutes
30 · C. Cossio
2 · N. Vargas
6 · S. Agamez
11 · M. Preciado
14 · Zarante
25 · J. Villarreal
27 · J. Contreras
29 · S. Martinez
23 · F. Marulanda
We make Internacional Palmira a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.7.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Internacional Palmira win | 49% | 45% | +4 |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 0 |
| Orsomarso win | 21% | 25% | −4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 31% | 40% | −9 |
| Both teams to score | 35% | 46% | −11 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 57% | 65% | −8 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13% | 21% | −8 |
| Internacional Palmira or draw | 79% | 75% | +4 |
| Internacional Palmira clean sheet | 50% | – | – |
| Orsomarso clean sheet | 29% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
9 meetings since 2024Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 9 Sept
INTERNACIONAL PALMIRA
ORSOMARSO
The table
2026 · Annual table| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Internacional Palmira | 33 | +12 | 60 |
| 2 | Envigado | 36 | +15 | 58 |
| 3 | Quindio | 33 | +9 | 57 |
| 4 | Real Cartagena | 35 | +14 | 56 |
| 5 | Union Magdalena | 33 | +14 | 54 |
| 6 | Tigres FC | 33 | +6 | 46 |
| 7 | Ind. Yumbo | 27 | +8 | 43 |
| 8 | Bogota FC | 34 | −7 | 40 |
| 9 | Barranquilla | 33 | −3 | 38 |
| 10 | Real Cundinamarca | 28 | +3 | 37 |
| 11 | Patriotas | 27 | −4 | 35 |
| 12 | Popayan | 27 | −2 | 31 |
| 13 | Orsomarso | 27 | −7 | 30 |
| 14 | Depor FC | 27 | −15 | 24 |
| 15 | Real Santander | 28 | −18 | 23 |
| 16 | Leones FC | 27 | −25 | 21 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Envigado
Quindio
Real Cartagena
Union Magdalena
Tigres FC
Ind. Yumbo
Bogota FC
Barranquilla
Real Cundinamarca
Patriotas
Popayan
Depor FC
Real Santander
Leones FC