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Internacional Palmira v Orsomarso

Internacional Palmira
1–1Full time
Orsomarso

Primera B · FRI 16 OCT · Francisco Rivera Escobar

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 02:30
Internacional Palmira 1–1 Orsomarso INTERNACIONAL PALMIRA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Internacional Palmira win49%
The market said45%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.778
The market’s Brier score0.752

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 24 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Internacional Palmira win at 49%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Internacional Palmira v Orsomarso
  3. 2′Much as we predicted: Internacional Palmira was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–30–21
  4. 8′🟨 YELLOW · 8' Orsomarso
  5. 16′We said Internacional Palmira at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 0–1 · 18–27–54
  6. 16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Internacional Palmira 0–1 Orsomarso
  7. 16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Internacional Palmira win: 49% at kick-off, 18% now
  8. 16′THE CALL SWINGS · 16' Orsomarso win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Internacional Palmira win 18%)
  9. 17′Orsomarso score on 17′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 18–27–55
  10. 23′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Internacional Palmira
  11. 30′We said Internacional Palmira at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–27–58
  12. 31′Goals are coming at about the 1.9 we expected. 0–1 · 14–27–59
  13. 45′HALF-TIME Internacional Palmira 1–1 Orsomarso
  14. 46′We said Internacional Palmira at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 35%. 1–1 · 35–47–17
  15. 46′Internacional Palmira find the net on 45′. 1–1. 1–1 · 35–47–17
  16. 46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Internacional Palmira 1–1 Orsomarso
  17. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' Internacional Palmira win: 49% at kick-off, 35% now
  18. 46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Orsomarso win 17%)
  19. 46′SECOND HALF Internacional Palmira 1–1 Orsomarso
  20. 49′We said Internacional Palmira at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–49–17
  21. 51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Orsomarso
  22. 58′We said Internacional Palmira at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–56–15
  23. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Internacional Palmira win: 49% at kick-off, 29% now
  24. 64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Internacional Palmira
  25. 66′We said Internacional Palmira at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–63–13
  26. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Orsomarso · On: S. Martinez · Off: S. Arrechea
  27. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Orsomarso · On: J. Villarreal · Off: A. Ruiz
  28. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Internacional Palmira win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
  29. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Internacional Palmira · On: J. Cardona · Off: J. Mosquera
  30. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Internacional Palmira · On: E. Velez · Off: J. Mosquera
  31. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Internacional Palmira · On: R. Brochero · Off: R. Correa
  32. 83′We said Internacional Palmira at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–86–5
  33. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Internacional Palmira win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
  34. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Internacional Palmira · On: D. Orozco · Off: A. Alvarez
  35. 90′We said Internacional Palmira at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–94–2
  36. 95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Orsomarso
  37. FTFULL TIME Internacional Palmira 1–1 Orsomarso
  38. FTInternacional Palmira 1–1 Orsomarso · Internacional Palmira win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Internacional Palmira are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Internacional Palmira 49%, draw 30%, Orsomarso 21%. Over 2.5 goals 31%, both teams to score 35%.

The AI’s read on Internacional Palmira v OrsomarsoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Internacional Palmira win49%
Draw30%
Orsomarso win21%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 00:00

RoundClausura · matchday 13

VenueFrancisco Rivera Escobar

Line-ups

Internacional Palmira

Orsomarso

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Internacional Palmira

Orsomarso

4Days since last match3

Last match: 11 Oct · the Colombian Primera B

Last match: 12 Oct · the Colombian Primera B

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026 · Annual table

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Internacional Palmira33+1260
13Orsomarso27−730

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Internacional Palmira

Formation not confirmed

22 W. Cuesta

31 J. Popo

30 J. E. Mina Chara

4 Y. Ariza

25 A. Alvarez

80 H. Suarez

19 K. Gonzalez

11 Padilla Kevin

7 J. Mosquera

18 J. Mosquera

23 R. Correa

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · A. Perez

9 · R. Brochero

10 · J. Cardona

14 · D. Orozco

16 · B. Ortiz

21 · J. Moreno

28 · J. Abonia

32 · E. Viveros

34 · E. Velez

Orsomarso

Formation not confirmed

12 I. Blanco

28 Y. Valencia

5 D. Barrios

13 J. Barreiro

26 S. Gonzalez

15 K. M. Gomez

22 D. Matamba

10 A. Ruiz

7 B. Caicedo

24 B. Campaz

9 S. Arrechea

Coach · Stiven Sanchez Pena

Substitutes

30 · C. Cossio

2 · N. Vargas

6 · S. Agamez

11 · M. Preciado

14 · Zarante

25 · J. Villarreal

27 · J. Contreras

29 · S. Martinez

23 · F. Marulanda

Our number · internacional palmira winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off
49% The market45%
Us49%
Market45%

We make Internacional Palmira a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Internacional Palmira v Orsomarso1.24 – 0.69
Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 9 SeptW3 D1 L2 · W1 D2 L3
Table places · points 60 v 301 v 13
The market · Internacional Palmira win45% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55% 10 OCT 03:5515 OCT 23:34
Our probability · Internacional Palmira win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Internacional Palmira win49%45%+4
Draw30%30%0
Orsomarso win21%25%−4
Over 2.5 goals31%40%−9
Both teams to score35%46%−11
Over 1.5 goals57%65%−8
Over 3.5 goals13%21%−8
Internacional Palmira or draw79%75%+4
Internacional Palmira clean sheet50%––
Orsomarso clean sheet29%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.8%
0123450 14.6 10.0 3.5 1 17.8 12.3 4.3 2 11.0 7.6 2.6 3 4.6 3.2 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Internacional Palmira down, Orsomarso across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2024
Goals a meeting2.11
Over 2.53 of 9
Both scored5 of 9
Last meetingsORS 1–2 INT · ORS 0–0 INT · INT 1–1 ORS · INT 1–1 ORS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 9 Sept

INTERNACIONAL PALMIRA

LWWWLD0–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1

ORSOMARSO

LDLDLW0–2 · 0–0 · 3–4 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026 · Annual table
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Internacional Palmira33+1260
2Envigado36+1558
3Quindio33+957
4Real Cartagena35+1456
5Union Magdalena33+1454
6Tigres FC33+646
7Ind. Yumbo27+843
8Bogota FC34−740
9Barranquilla33−338
10Real Cundinamarca28+337
11Patriotas27−435
12Popayan27−231
13Orsomarso27−730
14Depor FC27−1524
15Real Santander28−1823
16Leones FC27−2521

The competition's standings before kick-off.