Ind. Yumbo v Popayan prediction · Primera B

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 23:30

Ind. Yumbo 3–0 Popayan IND. YUMBO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ind. Yumbo win~~53%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.341

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.412

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ind. Yumbo win at 53%.
1′Much as we predicted: Ind. Yumbo was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–28–20
1′KICK-OFF Ind. Yumbo v Popayan
22′A goal for Ind. Yumbo on 22′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 81–15–4
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Ind. Yumbo 1–0 Popayan
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Ind. Yumbo win: 53% at kick-off, 81% now
23′We published Ind. Yumbo at 53%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–15–4
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 1–0 · 81–15–4
32′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Popayan
39′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Ind. Yumbo
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Ind. Yumbo win: 53% at kick-off, 83% now
45′HALF-TIME Ind. Yumbo 1–0 Popayan
46′SECOND HALF Ind. Yumbo 1–0 Popayan
47′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' Popayan
54′We published Ind. Yumbo at 53%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
60′We published Ind. Yumbo at 53%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–1–0
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Ind. Yumbo 2–0 Popayan
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Ind. Yumbo win: 53% at kick-off, 98% now
61′61′: H. Mena on the scoresheet for Ind. Yumbo, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 98–1–0
62′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Popayan · On: D. Diaz · Off: D. Beitar
62′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Popayan · On: J. Cuero · Off: D. Cortes
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Popayan · On: M. Lucumi · Off: J. Andrade
66′Ind. Yumbo find the net on 66′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Ind. Yumbo · On: J. Palacios · Off: W. Lopez
66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Ind. Yumbo · On: L. Farias · Off: A. Garcia
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Ind. Yumbo 3–0 Popayan
67′Ind. Yumbo ahead on 67′ through J. Palacios. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
68′We published Ind. Yumbo at 53%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
69′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Ind. Yumbo · On: J. Rodriguez · Off: D. Ferrer
73′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Ind. Yumbo · On: J. Diaz · Off: F. Pena
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Ind. Yumbo · On: J. Pajaro · Off: H. Moreyra
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Popayan · On: J. Salcedo · Off: P. Urrutia
88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Popayan
FTFULL TIME Ind. Yumbo 3–0 Popayan
FTInd. Yumbo 3–0 Popayan · Ind. Yumbo win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ind. Yumbo are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ind. Yumbo 53%, draw 28%, Popayan 20%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Ind. Yumbo v PopayanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Ind. Yumbo win53%

Draw28%

Popayan win20%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 21:00

RoundClausura · matchday 14

VenueEstadio Municipal Raul Miranda

Line-ups

Ind. Yumbo

Popayan

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ind. Yumbo

Popayan

5Days since last match4

Last match: 15 Oct · the Colombian Primera B

Last match: 16 Oct · the Colombian Primera B

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Ind. Yumbo	28	+8	44
12	Popayan	28	−3	31

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Ind. Yumbo

Formation not confirmed

12 L. Mena

27 J. Ampudia

3 D. Ferrer

35 O. Gomez

15 J. Perdomo

6 H. Moreyra

7 H. Mena

25 F. Pena

16 H. De Arco

26 W. Lopez

9 A. Garcia

Coach · –

Substitutes

4 · J. Rodriguez

5 · J. Diaz

8 · T. Diaz

11 · L. Farias

13 · A. Rojas

22 · J. Mendez

29 · J. Palacios

31 · J. Cantoni

34 · J. Pajaro

Popayan

Formation not confirmed

12 E. Obando

18 H. Mosquera

26 H. Ortiz

20 Y. Moran

3 K. Hurtado

11 D. Beitar

35 J. Viveros

21 P. Urrutia

17 J. Andrade

10 J. Aponza

34 D. Cortes

Coach · Manuel Rodriguez Becerra Jose

Substitutes

1 · S. Hoyos

4 · S. Llanos

27 · J. Salcedo

7 · J. Cuero

31 · D. Diaz

5 · S. Munoz

23 · M. Lucumi

8 · J. Rincon

13 · F. Nagles

Our number · ind. yumbo winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 20 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

53% The market48%

Us53%

~~Market~~48%

We make Ind. Yumbo a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ind. Yumbo v Popayan~~1.37 – 0.71

~~Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 15 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 44 v 31~~7 v 12

~~The market · Ind. Yumbo win~~48% · ours 53%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ind. Yumbo win The market, margin stripped

Published at 52%, 53% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ind. Yumbo win	53%	48%	+5
Draw	28%	29%	−1
Popayan win	20%	23%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	35%	41%	−6
Both teams to score	38%	46%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	61%	66%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	16%	22%	−6
Ind. Yumbo or draw	80%	77%	+3
Ind. Yumbo clean sheet	49%	–	–
Popayan clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.0%

0123450 12.5 9.0 3.2 1 17.0 11.9 4.3 2 11.6 8.2 2.9 3 5.4 3.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ind. Yumbo down, Popayan across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,747 Primera B matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera B matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.6% of games this season, across 255 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 0.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ind. Yumbo at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Popayan away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Ind. Yumbo, 0.71 for Popayan. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~0.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~POP 0–0 IND

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 15 Sept

IND. YUMBO

WLWWDD2–0 · 0–1 · 4–3 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1

POPAYAN

WWWDLL2–1 · 4–1 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–1

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Envigado	37	+16	61
2	Internacional Palmira	35	+11	61
3	Real Cartagena	37	+17	60
4	Union Magdalena	35	+15	58
5	Quindio	34	+9	58
6	Tigres FC	34	+6	47
7	Ind. Yumbo	28	+8	44
8	Bogota FC	35	−6	43
9	Barranquilla	35	−4	39
10	Real Cundinamarca	28	+3	37
11	Patriotas	29	−8	35
12	Popayan	28	−3	31
13	Orsomarso	29	−8	31
14	Depor FC	28	−14	27
15	Real Santander	29	−17	26
16	Leones FC	29	−25	24