Envigado v Internacional Palmira prediction · Primera B

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 23:31

Envigado 1–1 Internacional Palmira ENVIGADO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Envigado win~~48%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.809

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.749

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Envigado win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Envigado was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–28–24
29′Much as we predicted: Envigado was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–36–22
41′K. Gonzalez scores for Internacional Palmira on 32′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 12–26–62
45′We said Envigado at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 10%. 0–1 · 10–26–64
48′We said Envigado at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–65
49′We said Envigado at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–66
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Internacional Palmira win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Envigado win 9%)
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Envigado win: 48% at kick-off, 9% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Envigado win: 48% at kick-off, 9% now
88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Internacional Palmira win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Envigado win 9%)
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Envigado win: 48% at kick-off, 9% now
89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Internacional Palmira win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Envigado win 9%)
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Envigado win: 48% at kick-off, 9% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Internacional Palmira win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Envigado win 9%)
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Internacional Palmira
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 91' Envigado win: 48% at kick-off, 9% now
91′THE CALL SWINGS · 91' Internacional Palmira win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Envigado win 9%)
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 92' Envigado win: 48% at kick-off, 9% now
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 92' Internacional Palmira win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Envigado win 9%)
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 93' Envigado win: 48% at kick-off, 9% now
93′THE CALL SWINGS · 93' Internacional Palmira win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Envigado win 9%)
94′⚽ GOAL · 94' Envigado 1–1 Internacional Palmira · K. Gonzalez
94′⚽ GOAL · 95' Envigado 1–1 Internacional Palmira
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 94' Envigado win: 48% at kick-off, 9% now
94′THE CALL SWINGS · 94' Internacional Palmira win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Envigado win 9%)
95′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 95' Envigado win: 48% at kick-off, 9% now
95′THE CALL SWINGS · 95' Internacional Palmira win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Envigado win 9%)
95′🟨 YELLOW · 96' Envigado
96′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 96' Envigado win: 48% at kick-off, 9% now
96′THE CALL SWINGS · 96' Internacional Palmira win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Envigado win 9%)
FTFULL TIME Envigado 1–1 Internacional Palmira
FTEnvigado 1–1 Internacional Palmira · Envigado win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Envigado win48%

Draw28%

Internacional Palmira win24%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 21:00

VenueEstadio Polideportivo Sur

Line-ups

Envigado

Internacional Palmira

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Envigado

Internacional Palmira

6Days since last match7

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Internacional Palmira	32	+12	59
3	Envigado	34	+15	56

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Envigado

Formation not confirmed

88 A. Tovar

28 J. J. Gamboa Valencia

2 D. Palacios

17 Y. Rodallega

15 G. Cuervo

5 S. Norena

6 J. Palacios

8 W. Hurtado

7 D. Dawson

77 D. A. Valencia Mosquera

99 M. Marulanda

Coach · Andres Orozco

Substitutes

1 · J. Mora

27 · J. Quejada

70 · J. Nieva

14 · M. Betancurt

25 · M. Cuero

13 · J. Rey

80 · J. Aristizabal

9 · A. Rodriguez

18 · G. Mujica

Internacional Palmira

Formation not confirmed

22 W. Cuesta

13 J. Angulo

30 J. E. Mina Chara

3 A. Mejia

25 A. Alvarez

80 H. Suarez

19 K. Gonzalez

11 Padilla Kevin

7 J. Mosquera

18 J. Mosquera

23 R. Correa

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · A. Perez

31 · J. Popo

4 · Y. Ariza

34 · E. Velez

10 · J. Cardona

14 · D. Orozco

21 · J. Moreno

9 · R. Brochero

Our number · envigado winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

48% The market46%

Us48%

~~Market~~46%

We make Envigado a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · envigado win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 43% to 46% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Envigado win	48%	46%	+2
Draw	28%	30%	−3
Internacional Palmira win	24%	24%	0
Over 2.5 goals	37%	38%	−1
Both teams to score	42%	44%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	64%	63%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	18%	20%	−2
Envigado or draw	76%	76%	0
Envigado clean sheet	43%	–	–
Internacional Palmira clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.1%

0123450 11.3 9.6 4.1 1 15.1 12.5 5.4 2 10.0 8.4 3.6 3 4.5 3.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Envigado down, Internacional Palmira across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,729 Primera B matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera B matches have gone over 2.5 in 38.8% of games this season, across 237 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Envigado at home: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Internacional Palmira away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Envigado, 0.85 for Internacional Palmira. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~INT 0–0 ENV · ENV 0–0 INT · INT 2–1 ENV

Form · last six in Primera B

ENVIGADO

DDDWDD2–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 3–3

INTERNACIONAL PALMIRA

LLWWWL0–2 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Internacional Palmira	32	+12	59
2	Quindio	32	+12	57
3	Envigado	34	+15	56
4	Real Cartagena	35	+14	56
5	Union Magdalena	32	+14	53
6	Tigres FC	33	+6	46
7	Ind. Yumbo	27	+8	43
8	Bogota FC	32	−7	38
9	Real Cundinamarca	27	+3	36
10	Barranquilla	32	−6	35
11	Patriotas	26	−4	34
12	Popayan	26	−1	31
13	Orsomarso	26	−8	27
14	Depor FC	27	−15	24
15	Real Santander	27	−18	22
16	Leones FC	26	−25	20