Envigado v Barranquilla prediction · Primera B

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 00:00

Envigado 1–0 Barranquilla ENVIGADO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Envigado win~~59%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.257

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.253

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Envigado win at 59%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Envigado 59% before kick-off, 59% now. 0–0 · 59–23–18
1′KICK-OFF Envigado v Barranquilla
23′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Barranquilla
25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Envigado
34′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Barranquilla
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Envigado win: 59% at kick-off, 49% now
35′We said Envigado at 59% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 1–0 · 82–14–4
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Envigado 1–0 Barranquilla
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Envigado win: 59% at kick-off, 82% now
36′Envigado find the net on 35′. 1–0. 1–0 · 82–14–4
37′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 82–14–4
40′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Envigado
45′HALF-TIME Envigado 1–0 Barranquilla
45′SECOND HALF Envigado 1–0 Barranquilla
54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Barranquilla
57′We said Envigado at 59% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Envigado
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Barranquilla
71′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Envigado
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Envigado win: 59% at kick-off, 89% now
75′We said Envigado at 59% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
75′SUBSTITUTION · 10' Envigado · On: M. Cuero · Off: W. Hurtado
75′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Envigado · On: J. Nieva · Off: M. Cuero
76′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Envigado · On: M. Betancurt · Off: G. Mujica
77′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Envigado · On: D. Dawson · Off: G. Cuervo
84′We said Envigado at 59% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Envigado
90′1–0 at the end. Our 59% on Envigado comes in. 1–0 · 100–0–0
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Envigado win: 59% at kick-off, 99% now
FTFULL TIME Envigado 1–0 Barranquilla
FTEnvigado 1–0 Barranquilla · Envigado win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Envigado are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Envigado 59%, draw 23%, Barranquilla 18%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Envigado v BarranquillaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Envigado win59%

Draw23%

Barranquilla win18%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 21:30

RoundClausura · matchday 14

VenueEstadio Polideportivo Sur

Line-ups

Envigado

Barranquilla

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Envigado

Barranquilla

3Days since last match3

Last match: 15 Oct · the Colombian Primera B

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Envigado	36	+15	58
9	Barranquilla	34	−3	39

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Envigado

Formation not confirmed

88 A. Tovar

17 Y. Rodallega

28 J. J. Gamboa Valencia

2 D. Palacios

15 G. Cuervo

5 S. Norena

6 J. Palacios

8 W. Hurtado

18 G. Mujica

19 S. Acuna

99 M. Marulanda

Coach · Andres Orozco

Substitutes

1 · J. Mora

27 · J. Quejada

14 · M. Betancurt

33 · E. Londono

16 · J. Nieva

25 · M. Cuero

7 · D. Dawson

77 · D. A. Valencia Mosquera

9 · A. Rodriguez

Barranquilla

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Guerra Navarro

20 J. Cortez

27 N. Uribe

3 O. Cassiani

16 M. Agamez

5 A. Iriarte

6 S. Caballero

30 L. Gomez

14 W. Mosquera

15 S. Borja

11 J. Munoz

Coach · Dayron Perez

Substitutes

33 · D. Mosquera

8 · M. Bolivar

21 · A. Orozco

7 · D. Torres

4 · E. Herazo

9 · M. Pino

23 · P. Oviedo

31 · D. A. Mendoza Benitez

36 · J. Navia

Our number · envigado winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

59% The market59%

Us59%

~~Market~~59%

We make Envigado a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.8–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Envigado v Barranquilla~~1.77 – 0.85

~~Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 15 Sept~~W1 D5 L0 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 58 v 39~~2 v 9

~~The market · Envigado win~~59% · ours 59%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Envigado win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Envigado win	59%	59%	0
Draw	23%	23%	0
Barranquilla win	18%	18%	0
Over 2.5 goals	49%	54%	−5
Both teams to score	47%	53%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	73%	76%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	27%	34%	−7
Envigado or draw	82%	82%	0
Envigado clean sheet	43%	–	–
Barranquilla clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.8%

0123450 7.5 6.2 2.7 1 12.8 10.9 4.7 2 11.2 9.5 4.1 3 6.7 5.6 2.4 4 3.0 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Envigado down, Barranquilla across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,742 Primera B matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera B matches have gone over 2.5 in 38.0% of games this season, across 250 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Envigado at home: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Barranquilla away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.77 goals for Envigado, 0.85 for Barranquilla. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BAR 1–2 ENV · ENV 2–1 BAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 15 Sept

ENVIGADO

DWDDDD0–0 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 1–1

BARRANQUILLA

LLLDWD0–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 2–2

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Internacional Palmira	34	+12	61
2	Envigado	36	+15	58
3	Quindio	34	+9	58
4	Real Cartagena	36	+14	57
5	Union Magdalena	34	+14	55
6	Tigres FC	34	+6	47
7	Ind. Yumbo	28	+8	44
8	Bogota FC	34	−7	40
9	Barranquilla	34	−3	39
10	Real Cundinamarca	28	+3	37
11	Patriotas	28	−5	35
12	Popayan	28	−3	31
13	Orsomarso	28	−7	31
14	Depor FC	28	−14	27
15	Leones FC	28	−24	24
16	Real Santander	28	−18	23