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Bogota FC v Real Santander

Bogota FC

1–1Full time

Real Santander

Primera B · SAT 24 OCT · Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 00:01

Bogota FC 1–1 Real Santander BOGOTA FC WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bogota FC win~~46%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.811

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.803

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bogota FC win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Bogota FC 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–28–26
1′KICK-OFF Bogota FC v Real Santander
13′🟥 RED CARD · 13' Bogota FC
14′Bogota FC are down to ten from 13′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 44–31–26
34′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Real Santander
35′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Real Santander
39′SUBSTITUTION · 29' Real Santander · On: L. Rangel · Off: Rueda Juan
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Bogota FC win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Bogota FC win 38%)
44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Real Santander
45′HALF-TIME Bogota FC 0–0 Real Santander
45′SECOND HALF Bogota FC 0–0 Real Santander
46′PENALTY MISSED · 45+1' K. Aladesanmi · Bogota FC
47′We said Bogota FC at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–44–22
58′We said Bogota FC at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–51–19
61′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Bogota FC
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Bogota FC win: 46% at kick-off, 26% now
65′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Bogota FC · On: N. Segura · Off: K. Aladesanmi
67′We said Bogota FC at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–60–16
67′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Real Santander · On: J. Ayala · Off: J. P. Garcia Habib
67′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Real Santander · On: J. D. Guillen Sanchez · Off: E. E. Chacon Bonilla
67′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Real Santander · On: A. Segura · Off: L. Rangel
73′We said Bogota FC at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–68–13
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Bogota FC win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
79′We said Bogota FC at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–77–9
83′We said Bogota FC at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–84–6
86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Bogota FC
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Bogota FC win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
87′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Bogota FC · On: D. Estupinan · Off: H. Ramos Jaramillo
88′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Real Santander · On: J. Delgado · Off: J. Carrasco
88′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Bogota FC · On: F. Moreno · Off: J. Velasco
90′We said Bogota FC at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at under 1%. 0–1 · 0–4–96
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Bogota FC 0–1 Real Santander
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Real Santander win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Draw 90%)
91′Real Santander score on 90′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 0–4–96
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Real Santander
94′Bogota FC find the net on 90′. 1–1. 1–1 · 1–97–1
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Bogota FC 1–1 Real Santander
94′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+4' Draw is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Real Santander win 98%)
FTFULL TIME Bogota FC 1–1 Real Santander
FTBogota FC 1–1 Real Santander · Bogota FC win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bogota FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bogota FC 46%, draw 27%, Real Santander 26%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Bogota FC v Real SantanderBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Bogota FC win46%

Draw27%

Real Santander win26%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 21:30

RoundClausura · matchday 15

VenueEstadio Metropolitano de Techo

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bogota FC

Real Santander

5Days since last match5

Last match: 19 Oct · the Colombian Primera B

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Bogota FC	35	−6	43
15	Real Santander	29	−17	26

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bogota fc winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

46% The market47%

Us46%

~~Market~~47%

We make Bogota FC a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bogota FC v Real Santander~~1.36 – 0.95

~~Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 21 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 43 v 26~~8 v 15

~~The market · Bogota FC win~~47% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bogota FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bogota FC win	46%	47%	−1
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Real Santander win	26%	25%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	41%	46%	−5
Both teams to score	45%	50%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	67%	70%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	20%	26%	−6
Bogota FC or draw	74%	75%	−1
Bogota FC clean sheet	39%	–	–
Real Santander clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.6%

0123450 10.0 9.6 4.5 1 13.6 12.6 6.0 2 9.1 8.6 4.1 3 4.2 3.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bogota FC down, Real Santander across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,750 Primera B matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera B matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.6% of games this season, across 258 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bogota FC at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Real Santander away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Bogota FC, 0.95 for Real Santander. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~REA 1–2 BOG · REA 4–0 BOG · BOG 2–1 REA · BOG 1–0 REA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 21 Sept

BOGOTA FC

WLDDDW2–1 · 0–1 · 3–3 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–0

REAL SANTANDER

DDLWDW0–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Envigado	37	+16	61
2	Internacional Palmira	35	+11	61
3	Quindio	35	+10	61
4	Real Cartagena	37	+17	60
5	Union Magdalena	35	+15	58
6	Tigres FC	35	+6	48
7	Ind. Yumbo	29	+11	47
8	Bogota FC	35	−6	43
9	Barranquilla	35	−4	39
10	Real Cundinamarca	29	+3	38
11	Patriotas	29	−8	35
12	Popayan	29	−6	31
13	Orsomarso	29	−8	31
14	Depor FC	29	−15	27
15	Real Santander	29	−17	26
16	Leones FC	29	−25	24