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Bogota FC v Patriotas

Bogota FC

0–0Full time

Patriotas

Primera B · SUN 11 OCT · Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 05:00

Bogota FC 0–0 Patriotas PATRIOTAS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Patriotas win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.785

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Patriotas win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Patriotas 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 31–28–41
1′KICK-OFF Bogota FC v Patriotas
2′Little has changed for our model: Patriotas 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 31–28–41
2′🟨 YELLOW · 2' Patriotas
16′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Patriotas
45′SECOND HALF Bogota FC 0–0 Patriotas
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Patriotas
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Bogota FC
FTFULL TIME Bogota FC 0–0 Patriotas
FTBogota FC 0–0 Patriotas · Patriotas win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Bogota FC win31%

Draw28%

Patriotas win41%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SUN 11 OCT · 02:15

Venue · Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Bogota FC

Formation not confirmed

12 B. Benitez

2 M. Palacios

3 S. Diaz

5 J. Sanchez

7 K. Aladesanmi

8 J. Perez

19 D. Estupinan

21 J. Arango

31 J. Asprilla

32 A. Gutierrez

81 Y. Mosquera

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · J. Osorno

9 · S. Perea

15 · J. Velasco

16 · H. Ramos Jaramillo

20 · N. Segura

24 · F. Chamorro

28 · M. Medina

36 · J. Palacios

40 · R. Leon

Patriotas

Formation not confirmed

26 A. Macea

25 S. E. Bello Vivas

4 J. Hurtado

22 A. Porras

21 L. Renteria

5 E. Zapata

6 F. Torres

19 F. Figueroa

7 J. Campana

10 K. Alvarez

38 J. Ruiz

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · Colombiano

2 · Carabali

3 · D. Montien

8 · C. Copete

11 · A. Mora

16 · T. Molina

20 · E. Arango

24 · J. Sarmiento

35 · T. Pacheco

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Bogota FC

Formation not confirmed

12 B. Benitez

2 M. Palacios

3 S. Diaz

5 J. Sanchez

7 K. Aladesanmi

8 J. Perez

19 D. Estupinan

21 J. Arango

31 J. Asprilla

32 A. Gutierrez

81 Y. Mosquera

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · J. Osorno

9 · S. Perea

15 · J. Velasco

16 · H. Ramos Jaramillo

20 · N. Segura

24 · F. Chamorro

28 · M. Medina

36 · J. Palacios

40 · R. Leon

Patriotas

Formation not confirmed

26 A. Macea

25 S. E. Bello Vivas

4 J. Hurtado

22 A. Porras

21 L. Renteria

5 E. Zapata

6 F. Torres

19 F. Figueroa

7 J. Campana

10 K. Alvarez

38 J. Ruiz

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · Colombiano

2 · Carabali

3 · D. Montien

8 · C. Copete

11 · A. Mora

16 · T. Molina

20 · E. Arango

24 · J. Sarmiento

35 · T. Pacheco

Our number · patriotas winPublished 11 Oct 02:00

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Patriotas a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bogota FC win	31%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Patriotas win	41%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Bogota FC or draw	59%	–	–
Bogota FC clean sheet	29%	–	–
Patriotas clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 10.0 12.6 7.8 3.3 1 10.5 12.9 8.1 3.4 2 5.5 6.8 4.3 3 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bogota FC down, Patriotas across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,729 Primera B matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera B matches have gone over 2.5 in 38.8% of games this season, across 237 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 1.60 goals a meeting; 0 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bogota FC at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Patriotas away: 1.17 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.05 goals for Bogota FC, 1.26 for Patriotas. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~1.60

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 5

~~Both scored~~1 of 5

~~Last meetings~~PAT 0–1 BOG · PAT 1–1 BOG · BOG 0–2 PAT · BOG 0–1 PAT

Form · last six in Primera B

BOGOTA FC

LLDWLD1–2 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 3–3

PATRIOTAS

WWWLLL1–0 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–4 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Internacional Palmira	32	+12	59
2	Quindio	32	+12	57
3	Envigado	34	+15	56
4	Real Cartagena	35	+14	56
5	Union Magdalena	32	+14	53
6	Tigres FC	33	+6	46
7	Ind. Yumbo	27	+8	43
8	Bogota FC	32	−7	38
9	Real Cundinamarca	27	+3	36
10	Barranquilla	32	−6	35
11	Patriotas	26	−4	34
12	Popayan	26	−1	31
13	Orsomarso	26	−8	27
14	Depor FC	27	−15	24
15	Real Santander	27	−18	22
16	Leones FC	26	−25	20