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Barranquilla v Tigres FC

Barranquilla
2–2Full time
Tigres FC

Primera B · THU 15 OCT · Estadio Romelio Martinez

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 00:30
Barranquilla 2–2 Tigres FC BARRANQUILLA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Barranquilla win40%
The market said38%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.753
The market’s Brier score0.730

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 44 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Barranquilla win at 40%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Barranquilla 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–30–30
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Barranquilla v Tigres FC
  4. 13′Barranquilla score on 12′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 71–20–9
  5. 13′⚽ GOAL · 12' Barranquilla 1–0 Tigres FC
  6. 13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Barranquilla win: 40% at kick-off, 71% now
  7. 14′GOAL DISALLOWED · 14' Barranquilla
  8. 14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Barranquilla win: 40% at kick-off, 38% now
  9. 16′Barranquilla score on 16′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 71–20–9
  10. 16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Barranquilla 1–0 Tigres FC
  11. 16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Barranquilla win: 40% at kick-off, 71% now
  12. 17′We said Barranquilla at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 1–0 · 71–20–9
  13. 21′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Tigres FC
  14. 23′Barranquilla find the net on 22′. 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
  15. 23′We said Barranquilla at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 2–0 · 92–6–2
  16. 23′⚽ GOAL · 22' Barranquilla 2–0 Tigres FC
  17. 23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Barranquilla win: 40% at kick-off, 92% now
  18. 37′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Barranquilla
  19. 43′We said Barranquilla at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
  20. 45′HALF-TIME Barranquilla 2–0 Tigres FC
  21. 46′SECOND HALF Barranquilla 2–0 Tigres FC
  22. 48′🟨 YELLOW · 45+3' Tigres FC
  23. 48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Barranquilla · On: M. Agamez · Off: Ortiz Javier
  24. 49′🟨 YELLOW · 45+4' Barranquilla
  25. 49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Barranquilla · On: C. Penate · Off: S. Borja
  26. 53′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Barranquilla
  27. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Tigres FC · On: Y. Salas · Off: G. Cabezas
  28. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Tigres FC · On: W. S. Mena · Off: M. Frigerio
  29. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Tigres FC · On: O. Aragon · Off: J. P. Ramirez Acosta
  30. 68′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 2–0 · 98–2–0
  31. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Barranquilla · On: L. Gomez · Off: M. Pino
  32. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Barranquilla · On: J. Munoz · Off: D. A. Mendoza Benitez
  33. 71′A goal for Tigres FC on 71′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 85–13–1
  34. 71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Barranquilla 2–1 Tigres FC
  35. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Barranquilla win: 40% at kick-off, 85% now
  36. 72′We said Barranquilla at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 2–1 · 86–13–1
  37. 73′3 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 86–12–1
  38. 75′Tigres FC score on 75′ to make it 2–2. 2–2 · 15–72–12
  39. 75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Barranquilla 2–2 Tigres FC
  40. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Barranquilla win: 40% at kick-off, 15% now
  41. 75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Draw is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Barranquilla win 15%)
  42. 76′We said Barranquilla at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 15%. 2–2 · 15–74–12
  43. 76′O. Aragon scores for Tigres FC on 70′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 88–11–1
  44. 76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Tigres FC
  45. 77′GOAL DISALLOWED · 77' Tigres FC
  46. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Barranquilla win: 40% at kick-off, 89% now
  47. 77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Barranquilla win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Draw 10%)
  48. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Barranquilla win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
  49. 81′We said Barranquilla at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 2–2 · 10–82–8
  50. 81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Barranquilla 2–2 Tigres FC
  51. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Barranquilla win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
  52. 81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Draw is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Barranquilla win 10%)
  53. 82′GOAL DISALLOWED · 82' Tigres FC
  54. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Barranquilla win: 40% at kick-off, 93% now
  55. 82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Barranquilla win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Draw 7%)
  56. 83′Tigres FC score on 82′ to make it 2–2. 2–2 · 8–85–7
  57. 83′We said Barranquilla at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 2–2 · 8–85–7
  58. 83′⚽ GOAL · 82' Barranquilla 2–2 Tigres FC
  59. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Barranquilla win: 40% at kick-off, 8% now
  60. 83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' Draw is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Barranquilla win 8%)
  61. 85′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 7–88–5
  62. 89′We said Barranquilla at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–92–4
  63. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Tigres FC · On: S. Cardenas Pico · Off: L. Palacios
  64. FTFULL TIME Barranquilla 2–2 Tigres FC
  65. FTBarranquilla 2–2 Tigres FC · Barranquilla win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Barranquilla are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Barranquilla 40%, draw 29%, Tigres FC 30%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Barranquilla v Tigres FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Barranquilla win40%
Draw29%
Tigres FC win30%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 22:00

RoundClausura · matchday 13

VenueEstadio Romelio Martinez

Line-ups

Barranquilla

Tigres FC

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Barranquilla

Tigres FC

4Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · the Colombian Primera B

Last match: 8 Oct · the Colombian Primera B

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026 · Annual table

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Tigres FC33+646
9Barranquilla33−338

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Barranquilla

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Guerra Navarro

15 S. Borja

7 D. Torres

4 E. Herazo

21 A. Orozco

36 J. Navia

31 D. A. Mendoza Benitez

8 M. Bolivar

10 Ortiz Javier

23 P. Oviedo

9 M. Pino

Coach · Dayron Perez

Substitutes

33 · D. Mosquera

30 · L. Gomez

6 · S. Caballero

3 · O. Cassiani

20 · J. Cortez

27 · N. Uribe

11 · J. Munoz

19 · C. Penate

16 · M. Agamez

Tigres FC

Formation not confirmed

1 K. E. Lopez Larrota

15 S. Guzman

6 J. Lopera

5 Jhon Renteria

3 J. Cano

23 M. Frigerio

2 G. Cabezas

13 A. Cuadros

27 J. Martinez

11 L. Palacios

20 J. P. Ramirez Acosta

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · V. M. Brid Arroyo

8 · Y. Salas

9 · O. Aragon

18 · W. S. Mena

21 · S. Cardenas Pico

26 · M. Canon

Our number · barranquilla winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 04:42 · locked at kick-off
40% The market38%
Us40%
Market38%

We make Barranquilla a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Barranquilla v Tigres FC1.17 – 0.97
Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 10 SeptW1 D1 L4 · W3 D3 L0
Table places · points 38 v 469 v 6
The market · Barranquilla win38% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45% 11 OCT 04:0115 OCT 21:46
Our probability · Barranquilla win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Barranquilla win40%38%+2
Draw29%30%−1
Tigres FC win30%32%−2
Over 2.5 goals36%43%−7
Both teams to score43%50%−7
Over 1.5 goals63%67%−4
Over 3.5 goals17%24%−7
Barranquilla or draw70%68%+2
Barranquilla clean sheet38%––
Tigres FC clean sheet31%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.8%
0123450 12.0 11.4 5.5 1 13.8 13.2 6.4 2.1 2 8.1 7.7 3.7 3 3.2 3.0 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Barranquilla down, Tigres FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.40
Over 2.54 of 10
Both scored5 of 10
Last meetingsTIG 3–1 BAR · BAR 2–2 TIG · TIG 1–1 BAR · TIG 1–1 BAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 10 Sept

BARRANQUILLA

LLLLDW1–3 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 4–1

TIGRES FC

WDWDWD2–0 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026 · Annual table
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Internacional Palmira33+1260
2Envigado35+1557
3Quindio33+957
4Real Cartagena35+1456
5Union Magdalena33+1454
6Tigres FC33+646
7Ind. Yumbo27+843
8Bogota FC34−740
9Barranquilla33−338
10Real Cundinamarca28+337
11Patriotas27−435
12Popayan27−231
13Orsomarso27−730
14Depor FC27−1524
15Real Santander27−1822
16Leones FC27−2521

The competition's standings before kick-off.