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Barranquilla v Real Cartagena

Barranquilla

1–1Full time

Real Cartagena

Primera B · SAT 24 OCT · Estadio Romelio Martinez

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 00:01

Barranquilla 1–1 Real Cartagena REAL CARTAGENA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Real Cartagena win~~42%

~~The market said~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.847

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.048

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Real Cartagena win at 42%.
0′KICK-OFF Barranquilla v Real Cartagena
1′Little has changed for our model: Real Cartagena 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 33–25–42
38′PENALTY MISSED · 37' Real Cartagena
45′HALF-TIME Barranquilla 0–0 Real Cartagena
45′SECOND HALF Barranquilla 0–0 Real Cartagena
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Real Cartagena win 36%)
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Real Cartagena win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
55′We said Real Cartagena at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 30%. 0–0 · 25–45–30
56′Goalless on 56′ when we expected about 2.8 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 25–45–30
58′We said Real Cartagena at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 24–47–29
61′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Real Cartagena · On: J. Rios · Off: D. Pino
62′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Real Cartagena · On: J. Pineda · Off: J. P. Gallego
65′A goal for Barranquilla on 64′. 0–0 · 21–53–25
66′We said Real Cartagena at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 5%. 1–0 · 75–20–5
66′⚽ GOAL · 64' Barranquilla 1–0 Real Cartagena
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Real Cartagena win: 42% at kick-off, 5% now
66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Barranquilla win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 53%)
67′We said Real Cartagena at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–20–4
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Real Cartagena win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
79′A goal for Real Cartagena on 79′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 12–73–14
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Barranquilla 1–1 Real Cartagena
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Real Cartagena win: 42% at kick-off, 14% now
79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Draw is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Barranquilla win 85%)
80′We said Real Cartagena at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 1–1 · 11–75–13
80′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Barranquilla · On: M. Bolivar · Off: L. Gomez
81′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Barranquilla · On: S. Borja · Off: D. Torres
81′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Real Cartagena · On: A. Melendez · Off: J. Aleman
81′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Real Cartagena · On: L. Guevara · Off: E. Lopez
81′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Barranquilla · On: M. Agamez · Off: P. Oviedo
82′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Barranquilla · On: Ortiz Javier · Off: N. Uribe
90′1–1 at the end. Our 42% on Real Cartagena misses, and the record keeps it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' Real Cartagena win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
FTFULL TIME Barranquilla 1–1 Real Cartagena
FTBarranquilla 1–1 Real Cartagena · Real Cartagena win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Real Cartagena are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Barranquilla 33%, draw 25%, Real Cartagena 42%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Barranquilla v Real CartagenaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Barranquilla win33%

Draw25%

Real Cartagena win42%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 21:30

RoundClausura · matchday 15

VenueEstadio Romelio Martinez

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Barranquilla

Real Cartagena

2Days since last match5

Last match: 22 Oct · Copa Colombia

Last match: 20 Oct · the Colombian Primera B

4Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Real Cartagena	37	+17	60
9	Barranquilla	35	−4	39

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · real cartagena winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 20 Oct 02:36 · locked at kick-off

42% The market64%

Us42%

~~Market~~64%

We make Real Cartagena a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 22 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Barranquilla v Real Cartagena~~1.28 – 1.49

~~Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 21 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 39 v 60~~9 v 4

~~The market · Real Cartagena win~~64% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Real Cartagena win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Barranquilla win	33%	15%	+18
Draw	25%	21%	+4
Real Cartagena win	42%	64%	−22
Over 2.5 goals	52%	59%	−7
Both teams to score	55%	54%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	76%	79%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	30%	38%	−8
Barranquilla or draw	58%	36%	+22
Barranquilla clean sheet	23%	–	–
Real Cartagena clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.3 9.4 7.0 3.5 1 8.1 11.8 8.8 4.4 2 5.1 7.5 5.6 2.8 3 2.2 3.2 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Barranquilla down, Real Cartagena across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,750 Primera B matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera B matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.6% of games this season, across 258 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Barranquilla at home: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Real Cartagena away: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Barranquilla, 1.49 for Real Cartagena. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~REA 2–1 BAR · BAR 0–0 REA · REA 1–3 BAR · BAR 3–1 REA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B this season · since 21 Sept

BARRANQUILLA

LLDWDL1–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 2–2 · 0–1

REAL CARTAGENA

DDLDDW0–0 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 3–0

The table

2026 · Annual table

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Envigado	37	+16	61
2	Internacional Palmira	35	+11	61
3	Quindio	35	+10	61
4	Real Cartagena	37	+17	60
5	Union Magdalena	35	+15	58
6	Tigres FC	35	+6	48
7	Ind. Yumbo	29	+11	47
8	Bogota FC	35	−6	43
9	Barranquilla	35	−4	39
10	Real Cundinamarca	29	+3	38
11	Patriotas	29	−8	35
12	Popayan	29	−6	31
13	Orsomarso	29	−8	31
14	Depor FC	29	−15	27
15	Real Santander	29	−17	26
16	Leones FC	29	−25	24