Barranquilla v Quindio prediction · Primera B

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 01:30

Barranquilla 4–1 Quindio QUINDIO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Quindio win~~36%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.628

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.722

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Quindio win at 36%.
1′Much as we predicted: Quindio was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 35–29–36
1′KICK-OFF Barranquilla v Quindio
17′Much as we predicted: Quindio was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 34% now. 0–0 · 33–32–34
17′⚽ GOAL · 18' Barranquilla 0–0 Quindio
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Barranquilla 1–0 Quindio
19′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Barranquilla
32′⚽ GOAL · 33' Barranquilla 1–0 Quindio
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Barranquilla 1–1 Quindio · J. Lloreda
37′Quindio ahead on 33′ through J. Lloreda. 1–1. 1–1 · 30–39–31
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Quindio win 31%)
40′Quindio ahead on 33′ through J. Lloreda. 1–1. 1–1 · 29–41–30
40′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Barranquilla
45′SECOND HALF Barranquilla 1–1 Quindio
48′⚽ GOAL · 49' Barranquilla 1–1 Quindio
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Barranquilla 2–1 Quindio · J. Lloreda
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Quindio win 30%)
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Quindio win 30%)
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Quindio win 30%)
59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Barranquilla
60′⚽ GOAL · 61' Barranquilla 2–1 Quindio
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Barranquilla 3–1 Quindio · M. Agamez
66′⚽ GOAL · 67' Barranquilla 3–1 Quindio
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Barranquilla 4–1 Quindio · M. Pino
74′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Quindio · On: M. Bacca · Off: J. Lloreda
74′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Quindio · On: L. Rodrigo Moran · Off: F. Valencia
74′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Quindio
75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Quindio
89′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Quindio · On: J. Delgado · Off: J. P. Ibarguen
FTFULL TIME Barranquilla 4–1 Quindio
FTBarranquilla 4–1 Quindio · Quindio win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Barranquilla win35%

Draw28%

Quindio win36%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 23:00

VenueEstadio Romelio Martinez

Line-ups

Barranquilla

Quindio

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Barranquilla

Quindio

4Days since last match5

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Quindio	32	+12	57
10	Barranquilla	32	−6	35

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Barranquilla

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Guerra Navarro

9 M. Pino

7 D. Torres

31 D. A. Mendoza Benitez

21 A. Orozco

23 P. Oviedo

36 J. Navia

18 J. Lozano

4 E. Herazo

8 M. Bolivar

10 Ortiz Javier

Coach · Dayron Perez

Substitutes

33 · D. Mosquera

5 · A. Iriarte

20 · J. Cortez

3 · O. Cassiani

11 · J. Munoz

19 · C. Penate

15 · S. Borja

6 · S. Caballero

16 · M. Agamez

Quindio

Formation not confirmed

30 J. Silva

19 J. Sandoval

8 F. Valencia

20 J. Ocampo

28 J. S. Ortiz

6 S. Orozco

5 S. Roa

16 Y. Torres

25 A. F. Carabali R.

24 J. P. Ibarguen

7 J. Lloreda

Coach · Eduardo Lara

Substitutes

12 · S. Pabon

3 · M. Castano

4 · J. Delgado

9 · M. Bacca

11 · J. Lopez

14 · L. Rodrigo Moran

15 · F. Mosquera

18 · J. Ramirez

Our number · quindio winPublished 11 Oct 23:01

36% The market41%

Us36%

~~Market~~41%

We make Quindio a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · quindio win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Barranquilla win	35%	31%	+4
Draw	28%	28%	0
Quindio win	36%	41%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	39%	47%	−8
Both teams to score	46%	53%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	66%	71%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	19%	28%	−8
Barranquilla or draw	64%	59%	+5
Barranquilla clean sheet	32%	–	–
Quindio clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 10.5 11.9 6.7 2.6 1 11.8 13.1 7.5 2.9 2 6.6 7.4 4.2 3 2.5 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Barranquilla down, Quindio across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,729 Primera B matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera B matches have gone over 2.5 in 38.8% of games this season, across 237 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 1.90 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Barranquilla at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Quindio away: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Barranquilla, 1.14 for Quindio. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.90

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~QUI 1–0 BAR · QUI 1–1 BAR · BAR 1–1 QUI · QUI 1–0 BAR

Form · last six in Primera B

BARRANQUILLA

WLLLLD2–1 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–1

QUINDIO

DDLLWW0–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Internacional Palmira	32	+12	59
2	Quindio	32	+12	57
3	Envigado	34	+15	56
4	Real Cartagena	35	+14	56
5	Union Magdalena	32	+14	53
6	Tigres FC	33	+6	46
7	Ind. Yumbo	27	+8	43
8	Bogota FC	32	−7	38
9	Real Cundinamarca	27	+3	36
10	Barranquilla	32	−6	35
11	Patriotas	26	−4	34
12	Popayan	26	−1	31
13	Orsomarso	26	−8	27
14	Depor FC	27	−15	24
15	Real Santander	27	−18	22
16	Leones FC	26	−25	20