Santa Fe v Jaguares prediction · Primera A

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 05:00

Santa Fe 2–1 Jaguares SANTA FE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Santa Fe win~~65%

~~The market said~~76%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.194

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.090

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Santa Fe win at 65%.
1′Much as we predicted: Santa Fe was 65% before kick-off and our model makes it 64% now. 0–0 · 64–23–13
1′KICK-OFF Santa Fe v Jaguares
5′We published Santa Fe at 65%. Our model now makes it 87%. 1–0 · 87–9–4
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Santa Fe 1–0 Jaguares
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Santa Fe win: 65% at kick-off, 87% now
6′5′: F. Fagundez on the scoresheet for Santa Fe, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 87–9–4
14′SUBSTITUTION · 12' Santa Fe · On: M. Puerta · Off: C. Mafla
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 86–11–3
45′HALF-TIME Santa Fe 1–0 Jaguares
45′SECOND HALF Santa Fe 1–0 Jaguares
58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Santa Fe · On: K. D. Toscano Bassa · Off: J. Torres
58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Santa Fe · On: A. Zapata · Off: E. Rodriguez
61′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Jaguares
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Jaguares · On: Jopito · Off: J. Beltran
65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Jaguares · On: J. Yanez · Off: R. R. Colpa Bolano
68′We published Santa Fe at 65%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Jaguares · On: D. Lopez · Off: W. De La Rosa
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Jaguares · On: J. Malagon · Off: J. Lovera
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Santa Fe · On: O. Fernandez · Off: J. Obrian
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Santa Fe · On: L. Palacios · Off: D. Torres
76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Santa Fe
80′We published Santa Fe at 65%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Santa Fe 2–0 Jaguares
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Santa Fe win: 65% at kick-off, over 99% now
82′Santa Fe ahead on 81′ through F. Fagundez. 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Jaguares · On: S. Cubides · Off: J. Mejia
90′Full time, 2–1. We called Santa Fe at 65% — that one lands. 2–1 · 100–0–0
91′We published Santa Fe at 65%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–1 · 98–2–0
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Santa Fe 2–1 Jaguares
92′A goal for Jaguares on 90′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 99–1–0
93′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 99–1–0
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Santa Fe
FTFULL TIME Santa Fe 2–1 Jaguares
FTSanta Fe 2–1 Jaguares · Santa Fe win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Santa Fe are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Santa Fe 65%, draw 23%, Jaguares 13%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Santa Fe v JaguaresBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Santa Fe win65%

Draw23%

Jaguares win13%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 02:20

RoundClausura · matchday 7

VenueEstadio El Campin

RefereeF. Ossa Orozco

Line-ups

Santa Fe

4-2-3-1

Jaguares

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Santa Fe

Jaguares

4Days since last match5

Last match: 19 Oct · Primera A

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Santa Fe	13	+6	22
19	Jaguares	13	−11	10

Match statistics

Line-ups

Santa Fe

4-2-3-1

12 W. Asprilla

13 H. Palacios

18 E. Olivera

15 I. R. Scarpeta Silgado

32 C. Mafla

7 J. Torres

16 D. Torres

77 J. Obrian

9 F. Fagundez

25 E. Rodriguez

11 H. Rodallega

Coach · Jose Lopez Fierro

Substitutes

31 · J. Espitia

4 · M. Puerta

14 · L. Palacios

43 · J. Caicedo

10 · A. Zapata

6 · K. D. Toscano Bassa

39 · C. Portocarrero

8 · O. Fernandez

17 · M. Lovera

Jaguares

4-2-3-1

12 F. Mosquera

4 J. Franco

6 J. Lovera

29 C. Henao

18 L. Jimenez

5 R. R. Colpa Bolano

21 R. Bustamante

7 W. De La Rosa

16 J. Beltran

9 J. Mejia

11 A. Renteria

Coach · Julio Mendez

Substitutes

1 · D. Martinez

3 · J. Malagon

2 · A. Alfonso

10 · Jopito

30 · R. Perez

32 · J. Yanez

17 · D. Lopez

24 · S. Cubides

28 · D. Zuluaga

Our number · santa fe winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 20 Oct 03:48 · locked at kick-off

65% The market76%

Us65%

~~Market~~76%

We make Santa Fe a 65% chance to win. The market has them at 76%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Santa Fe v Jaguares~~1.88 – 0.71

~~Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 11 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 22 v 10~~7 v 19

~~The market · Santa Fe win~~76% · ours 65%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Santa Fe win The market, margin stripped

Published at 64%, 65% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 76% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Santa Fe win	65%	76%	−11
Draw	23%	15%	+8
Jaguares win	13%	9%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	48%	65%	−17
Both teams to score	43%	50%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	74%	83%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	26%	45%	−19
Santa Fe or draw	87%	91%	−4
Santa Fe clean sheet	49%	–	–
Jaguares clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.5%

0123450 8.3 4.7 1 13.5 10.6 3.5 2 13.2 9.3 3.3 3 8.3 5.8 2.1 4 4.0 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Santa Fe down, Jaguares across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,541 Primera A matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera A matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.7% of games this season, across 344 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.78 goals a meeting; 6 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Santa Fe at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Jaguares away: 0.83 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.88 goals for Santa Fe, 0.71 for Jaguares. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.78

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 9

~~Both scored~~4 of 9

~~Last meetings~~JAG 3–1 SAN · SAN 3–0 JAG · JAG 1–0 SAN · SAN 1–0 JAG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 11 Sept

SANTA FE

WWLWWL1–0 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–1

JAGUARES

DLLLWL2–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 1–4

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	America de Cali	14	+16	28
2	Atletico Nacional	13	+13	26
3	Deportivo Cali	14	+11	26
4	Millonarios	16	+10	26
5	Bucaramanga	13	+10	25
6	Independiente Medellin	14	+2	23
7	Santa Fe	13	+6	22
8	Cucuta	14	−2	21
9	Once Caldas	15	+2	20
10	Deportes Tolima	15	0	20
11	Águilas Doradas	14	0	19
12	Llaneros	14	−1	17
13	Internacional de Bogota	15	−3	17
14	Alianza Valledupar	14	−11	15
15	Deportivo Pereira	14	−8	13
16	Junior	14	−4	12
17	Chico	14	−14	12
18	Fortaleza FC	14	−6	11
19	Jaguares	13	−11	10
20	Deportivo Pasto	13	−10	9