Santa Fe v Bucaramanga prediction · Primera A

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Santa FeDrawBucaramanga

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 01:05

Before kick-off · Match result · Santa Fe 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Santa Fe are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Santa Fe 45%, draw 30%, Bucaramanga 25%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Santa Fe v BucaramangaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Santa Fe win45%

Draw30%

Bucaramanga win25%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 01:05

RoundClausura · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Santa Fe

Bucaramanga

5Days since last match4

Last match: 22 Oct · Primera A

Last match: 24 Oct · Primera A

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Bucaramanga	14	+9	25
6	Santa Fe	14	+7	25

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · santa fe winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · updated 24 Oct 03:56 · locked at kick-off

45% The market49%

Us45%

~~Market~~49%

We make Santa Fe a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Santa Fe v Bucaramanga~~1.31 – 0.92

~~Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 19 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 25 v 25~~6 v 5

~~The market · Santa Fe win~~49% · ours 45%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Santa Fe win The market, margin stripped

Published at 44%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Santa Fe win	45%	49%	−4
Draw	30%	28%	+2
Bucaramanga win	25%	24%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	38%	45%	−7
Both teams to score	44%	50%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	66%	70%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	19%	26%	−7
Santa Fe or draw	75%	76%	−1
Santa Fe clean sheet	40%	–	–
Bucaramanga clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 11.8 9.2 4.6 1 13.3 13.7 5.9 2 9.2 8.4 3.8 3 4.0 3.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Santa Fe down, Bucaramanga across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,545 Primera A matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera A matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.0% of games this season, across 348 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Santa Fe at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Bucaramanga away: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Santa Fe, 0.92 for Bucaramanga. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BUC 1–2 SAN · SAN 0–0 BUC · BUC 1–0 SAN · BUC 2–1 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 19 Sept

SANTA FE

WLWWLW4–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–1

BUCARAMANGA

WWWDDL2–0 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Atletico Nacional	14	+16	29
2	Deportivo Cali	15	+14	29
3	America de Cali	14	+16	28
4	Millonarios	16	+10	26
5	Bucaramanga	14	+9	25
6	Santa Fe	14	+7	25
7	Independiente Medellin	14	+2	23
8	Cucuta	14	−2	21
9	Once Caldas	15	+2	20
10	Deportes Tolima	15	0	20
11	Águilas Doradas	15	−1	19
12	Internacional de Bogota	15	−3	17
13	Llaneros	15	−4	17
14	Junior	15	−3	15
15	Alianza Valledupar	14	−11	15
16	Chico	15	−13	15
17	Deportivo Pereira	14	−8	13
18	Fortaleza FC	14	−6	11
19	Jaguares	14	−12	10
20	Deportivo Pasto	14	−13	9