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Once Caldas v Llaneros

Once Caldas

1–0Full time

Llaneros

Primera A · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio Palogrande

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 05:00

Once Caldas 1–0 Llaneros ONCE CALDAS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Once Caldas win~~52%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.349

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.228

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Once Caldas win at 52%.
1′Much as we predicted: Once Caldas was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 53–27–21
1′KICK-OFF Once Caldas v Llaneros
33′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Once Caldas
34′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Juan Castilla · Llaneros
45′HALF-TIME Once Caldas 0–0 Llaneros
45′SECOND HALF Once Caldas 0–0 Llaneros
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Llaneros · On: Luis Miranda · Off: Jimmy Medranda Corrected
51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Juan Cuesta · Once Caldas
55′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Carlos Cortés · Llaneros
65′PENALTY MISSED · 65' Carlos Cortés · Llaneros
68′⚽ GOAL · 69' Once Caldas 0–0 Llaneros · Jorge Cardona
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Once Caldas 1–0 Llaneros · Jorge Cardona
73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Francisco Meza · Llaneros
75′🟥 RED CARD · 75' Llaneros
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Llaneros · On: Yorleys Mena · Off: Carlos Cortés Corrected
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Llaneros · On: Yorleys Mena · Off: Carlos Cortés Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Llaneros · On: Joel Jesús Contreras Torres · Off: Juan Ramirez Corrected
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Once Caldas · On: Helieyker Guzman · Off: Michael Barrios Corrected
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Once Caldas · On: Edwin Torres · Off: Felipe Gomez Corrected
91′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Llaneros · On: Marlon Sierra · Off: Frank Castaneda Corrected
91′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Llaneros · On: Neider Ospina · Off: Juan Castilla Corrected
94′SUBSTITUTION · 95' Once Caldas · On: Tomas García · Off: Andrés Roa Corrected
97′SUBSTITUTION · 98' Once Caldas · On: Mateo Zuleta García · Off: Jader Quinones Corrected
FTFULL TIME Once Caldas 1–0 Llaneros
FTOnce Caldas 1–0 Llaneros · Once Caldas win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Once Caldas win52%

Draw28%

Llaneros win20%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 02:10

Venue · Estadio Palogrande

Referee · Andres Rojas

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Once Caldas

4-2-3-1

99 J. Parra

22 J. D. Cuesta Santos

2 J. Cardona

30 D. Londono

33 J. Patino

5 J. Nieto

42 J. Quinones

7 M. Barrios

20 A. Roa

9 P. Gomez

14 J. A. Zapata Ramirez

Coach · Carlos Valencia

Substitutes

12 · J. Camargo

18 · J. Riquett

16 · J. Castano

36 · R. Acuna

19 · T. Rojas

29 · E. Torres

28 · M. Zuleta

31 · J. Beltran

21 · H. Guzman

Llaneros

4-1-4-1

22 R. Romana Garavito

20 B. Chury

2 H. H. Mena Posada

21 F. Meza

94 J. Medranda

13 J. Castilla

95 Jhon Vasquez

8 J. Ramirez

33 Kelvin Osorio

32 F. Castaneda

9 C. Cortes

Coach · Jose Garcia

Substitutes

12 · J. Loaiza

23 · A. Moralez

6 · M. Sierra

70 · J. Contreras

10 · N. Ospina

17 · Y. Mena

7 · L. Miranda

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Once Caldas

4-2-3-1

99 J. Parra

22 J. D. Cuesta Santos

2 J. Cardona

30 D. Londono

33 J. Patino

5 J. Nieto

42 J. Quinones

7 M. Barrios

20 A. Roa

9 P. Gomez

14 J. A. Zapata Ramirez

Coach · Carlos Valencia

Substitutes

12 · J. Camargo

18 · J. Riquett

16 · J. Castano

36 · R. Acuna

19 · T. Rojas

29 · E. Torres

28 · M. Zuleta

31 · J. Beltran

21 · H. Guzman

Llaneros

4-1-4-1

22 R. Romana Garavito

20 B. Chury

2 H. H. Mena Posada

21 F. Meza

94 J. Medranda

13 J. Castilla

95 Jhon Vasquez

8 J. Ramirez

33 Kelvin Osorio

32 F. Castaneda

9 C. Cortes

Coach · Jose Garcia

Substitutes

12 · J. Loaiza

23 · A. Moralez

6 · M. Sierra

70 · J. Contreras

10 · N. Ospina

17 · Y. Mena

7 · L. Miranda

Our number · once caldas winPublished 10 Oct 02:00

52% The market61%

Us52%

~~Market~~61%

We make Once Caldas a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.8.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Once Caldas win	52%	61%	−9
Draw	28%	23%	+5
Llaneros win	20%	15%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	40%	50%	−10
Both teams to score	43%	47%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	67%	73%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	20%	28%	−8
Once Caldas or draw	80%	85%	−5
Once Caldas clean sheet	45%	–	–
Llaneros clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.1%

0123450 11.1 7.5 3.4 1 14.1 12.9 4.9 2 11.0 8.9 3.6 3 5.4 4.4 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Once Caldas down, Llaneros across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,520 Primera A matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera A matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.3% of games this season, across 323 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 1.67 goals a meeting; 0 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Once Caldas at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Llaneros away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Once Caldas, 0.81 for Llaneros. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 02:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~LLA 1–1 ONC · LLA 2–0 ONC · ONC 1–0 LLA

Form · last six in Primera A

ONCE CALDAS

LLWLLD0–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 1–1

LLANEROS

LLLWLL1–2 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Atletico Nacional	36	+39	78
2	America de Cali	33	+23	61
3	Santa Fe	35	+18	57
4	Deportes Tolima	36	+12	57
5	Junior	36	+6	53
6	Deportivo Cali	31	+15	51
7	Millonarios	33	+15	48
8	Once Caldas	33	+7	47
9	Bucaramanga	30	+16	46
10	Independiente Medellin	31	+5	46
11	Deportivo Pasto	33	−8	43
12	Internacional de Bogota	34	−11	41
13	Águilas Doradas	30	−6	40
14	Llaneros	31	−4	36
15	Fortaleza FC	32	−10	33
16	Cucuta	31	−17	31
17	Chico	30	−25	29
18	Alianza Valledupar	31	−26	28
19	Jaguares	30	−22	25
20	Deportivo Pereira	30	−27	18