Once Caldas v Deportivo Pereira prediction · Primera A

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Once CaldasDrawDeportivo Pereira

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 02:15

Before kick-off · Match result · Once Caldas 55%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Once Caldas are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Once Caldas 55%, draw 27%, Deportivo Pereira 18%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Once Caldas v Deportivo PereiraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Once Caldas win55%

Draw27%

Deportivo Pereira win18%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 02:15

RoundClausura · matchday 16

VenueEstadio Palogrande

Line-ups

Once Caldas

4-2-3-1

Deportivo Pereira

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Once Caldas

Deportivo Pereira

4Days since last match5

Last match: 21 Oct · Primera A

Last match: 20 Oct · Primera A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Once Caldas	15	+2	20
17	Deportivo Pereira	14	−8	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Once Caldas

4-2-3-1

99 Felipe Parra

22 Juan David Cuesta

2 Jorge Cardona

30 Daniel Londoño

33 Juan Patiño

23 Andres Colorado

5 Juan Pablo Nieto

7 Michael Barrios

42 Jader Quinones

9 Pipe Gómez

14 Jefry Zapata

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · Jesús Camargo

18 · Jeider Riquett

16 · Juan Castaño

15 · Jaime Alvarado

29 · Edwin Torres

28 · Mateo Zuleta

19 · Tomas García

17 · Dayro Moreno

21 · Helieyker Guzman

Deportivo Pereira

4-4-2

1 Yimy Gómez

20 Jordy Monroy

2 Sebastián Urrea

15 Santiago Aguilar

25 Fabio Delgado

7 Anderson Plata

21 Walmer Pacheco

14 Ederson Moreno

24 Miguel Palacios

18 Marco Pérez

11 Jhon Largacha

Coach · –

Substitutes

33 · Samuel Atehortua

34 · Santiago Álzate

23 · Tobias Bovone

16 · Eber Moreno

6 · Danilo Ortiz

13 · Yuber Quiñones

5 · Jorge Bermúdez

29 · Manuel Alejandro Diaz Hernandez

8 · Felipe Mosquera

Our number · once caldas winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 21 Oct 01:06 · locked at kick-off

55% The market70%

Us55%

~~Market~~70%

We make Once Caldas a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 70%. We are 15 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Once Caldas v Deportivo Pereira~~1.59 – 0.79

~~Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 20 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 20 v 13~~9 v 17

~~The market · Once Caldas win~~70% · ours 55%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Once Caldas win The market, margin stripped

Published at 56%, 55% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 70% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Once Caldas win	55%	70%	−15
Draw	27%	19%	+8
Deportivo Pereira win	18%	11%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	43%	56%	−13
Both teams to score	44%	47%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	69%	77%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	22%	35%	−13
Once Caldas or draw	82%	89%	−7
Once Caldas clean sheet	45%	–	–
Deportivo Pereira clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.9%

0123450 10.1 6.6 2.9 1 13.9 12.3 4.6 2 11.6 9.1 3.6 3 6.2 4.9 4 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Once Caldas down, Deportivo Pereira across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,546 Primera A matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera A matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.9% of games this season, across 349 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Once Caldas at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Deportivo Pereira away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for Once Caldas, 0.79 for Deportivo Pereira. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DEP 0–0 ONC · ONC 1–0 DEP · DEP 2–1 ONC · DEP 1–1 ONC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 20 Sept

ONCE CALDAS

LLDWWD0–1 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–1

DEPORTIVO PEREIRA

DLLDDW0–0 · 1–2 · 0–4 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Atletico Nacional	14	+16	29
2	Deportivo Cali	15	+14	29
3	America de Cali	14	+16	28
4	Millonarios	16	+10	26
5	Bucaramanga	14	+9	25
6	Santa Fe	14	+7	25
7	Independiente Medellin	14	+2	23
8	Cucuta	14	−2	21
9	Once Caldas	15	+2	20
10	Deportes Tolima	15	0	20
11	Águilas Doradas	15	−1	19
12	Internacional de Bogota	15	−3	17
13	Llaneros	15	−4	17
14	Junior	15	−3	15
15	Alianza Valledupar	14	−11	15
16	Chico	15	−13	15
17	Deportivo Pereira	14	−8	13
18	Fortaleza FC	14	−6	11
19	Jaguares	14	−12	10
20	Deportivo Pasto	14	−13	9