Once Caldas v Alianza Valledupar prediction · Primera A

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Once CaldasDrawAlianza Valledupar

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 23:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Once Caldas 55%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Once Caldas are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Once Caldas 55%, draw 27%, Alianza Valledupar 19%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Once Caldas v Alianza ValleduparBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Once Caldas win55%

Draw27%

Alianza Valledupar win19%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 23:00

RoundClausura · matchday 5

VenueEstadio Palogrande

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Once Caldas

Alianza Valledupar

3Days since last match8

Last match: 25 Oct · Primera A

Last match: 20 Oct · Primera A

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Once Caldas	16	+2	21
15	Alianza Valledupar	14	−11	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · once caldas winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

55% The market–

Us55%

We make Once Caldas a 55% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Once Caldas v Alianza Valledupar~~1.58 – 0.82

~~Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 16 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 21 v 15~~8 v 15

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Once Caldas win	55%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Alianza Valledupar win	19%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Once Caldas or draw	81%	–	–
Once Caldas clean sheet	44%	–	–
Alianza Valledupar clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.6%

0123450 9.9 6.8 3.1 1 13.6 12.4 4.8 2 11.3 9.2 3.8 3 6.0 4.8 4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Once Caldas down, Alianza Valledupar across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,547 Primera A matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera A matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.0% of games this season, across 350 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.80 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Once Caldas at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Alianza Valledupar away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for Once Caldas, 0.82 for Alianza Valledupar. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.80

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ONC 1–0 ALI · ALI 1–1 ONC · ALI 0–0 ONC · ONC 1–2 ALI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 16 Sept

ONCE CALDAS

LDWWDD1–3 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–1

ALIANZA VALLEDUPAR

WLWLDW2–1 · 1–4 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 1–0

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	America de Cali	15	+18	31
2	Atletico Nacional	14	+16	29
3	Deportivo Cali	15	+14	29
4	Millonarios	16	+10	26
5	Bucaramanga	14	+9	25
6	Santa Fe	14	+7	25
7	Independiente Medellin	14	+2	23
8	Once Caldas	16	+2	21
9	Cucuta	15	−4	21
10	Deportes Tolima	15	0	20
11	Águilas Doradas	15	−1	19
12	Internacional de Bogota	15	−3	17
13	Llaneros	15	−4	17
14	Junior	15	−3	15
15	Alianza Valledupar	14	−11	15
16	Chico	15	−13	15
17	Deportivo Pereira	15	−8	14
18	Fortaleza FC	14	−6	11
19	Jaguares	14	−12	10
20	Deportivo Pasto	14	−13	9