Millonarios v Once Caldas

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Millonarios win at 53%.
2. 0′KICK-OFF Millonarios v Once Caldas
3. 4′Much as we predicted: Millonarios was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–28–20
4. 29′SUBSTITUTION · 28' Millonarios · On: R. Urena · Off: M. Samuel
5. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Millonarios win: 53% at kick-off, 43% now
6. 42′We said Millonarios at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 41%. 0–0 · 41–40–19
7. 45′7 shots for Millonarios, 1 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 40–42–18
8. 45′HALF-TIME Millonarios 0–0 Once Caldas
9. 45′SECOND HALF Millonarios 0–0 Once Caldas
10. 47′We said Millonarios at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–43–18
11. 47′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Millonarios
12. 48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Millonarios win 41%)
13. 56′We said Millonarios at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–49–16
14. 58′Millonarios have had 8 attempts to 1 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 33–51–16
15. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Millonarios win: 53% at kick-off, 33% now
16. 64′We said Millonarios at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–56–14
17. 66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Once Caldas
18. 69′68′: D. Ruiz on the scoresheet for Millonarios. 0–0 · 25–62–13
19. 69′We published Millonarios at 53%. Our model now makes it 87%. 1–0 · 87–12–1
20. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Millonarios · On: S. Viveros · Off: D. Silva
21. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Millonarios · On: R. Contreras · Off: L. Castro
22. 69′⚽ GOAL · 68' Millonarios 1–0 Once Caldas · D. Ruiz
23. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Millonarios win: 53% at kick-off, 87% now
24. 69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Millonarios win is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Draw 62%)
25. 75′We published Millonarios at 53%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
26. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Once Caldas · On: D. Moreno · Off: J. Quinones
27. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Millonarios win: 53% at kick-off, 93% now
28. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Once Caldas · On: E. Torres · Off: P. Gomez
29. 84′We published Millonarios at 53%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
30. 86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Millonarios
31. 86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Millonarios
32. 88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Millonarios
33. 89′We said Millonarios at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 6%. 1–1 · 6–91–3
34. 89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Millonarios 1–1 Once Caldas
35. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Millonarios win: 53% at kick-off, 6% now
36. 89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Draw is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Millonarios win 97%)
37. 90′Once Caldas level it on 89′ through D. Moreno. 1–1. 1–1 · 5–93–3
38. 90′Full time, 1–1. We called Millonarios at 53% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–1 · 0–100–0
39. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Once Caldas
40. 91′We said Millonarios at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–94–2
41. 92′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 1–1 · 3–95–2
42. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Millonarios win: 53% at kick-off, 3% now
43. 95′SUBSTITUTION · 90+3' Once Caldas · On: J. Alvarado · Off: J. A. Zapata Ramirez
44. FTFULL TIME Millonarios 1–1 Once Caldas
45. FTMillonarios 1–1 Once Caldas · Millonarios win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.