Millonarios v Jaguares prediction · Primera A

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 02:30

Millonarios 4–1 Jaguares MILLONARIOS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Millonarios win~~66%

~~The market said~~78%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.183

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.075

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 38 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Millonarios win at 66%.
3′KICK-OFF Millonarios v Jaguares
4′Little has changed for our model: Millonarios 66% before kick-off, 65% now. 0–0 · 65–23–12
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Millonarios win: 66% at kick-off, 56% now
35′Millonarios ahead on 34′ through Andrey Estupinan. 1–0. 1–0 · 87–11–2
35′⚽ GOAL · 34' Millonarios 1–0 Jaguares · Andrey Estupinan
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Millonarios win: 66% at kick-off, 87% now
36′We said Millonarios at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 1–0 · 87–11–2
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Millonarios win: 66% at kick-off, 87% now
37′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 87–11–2
42′We said Millonarios at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Millonarios 2–0 Jaguares
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Millonarios win: 66% at kick-off, 98% now
44′Leonardo Castro scores for Millonarios on 40′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
44′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Wilfrido De la Rosa · Jaguares
45′HALF-TIME Millonarios 2–1 Jaguares
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Jaguares · On: Jerson Malagon · Off: Juan Esteban Franco
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Jaguares · On: Darwin Lopez · Off: Wilfrido De la Rosa
46′45′: Cristian Alvarez on the scoresheet for Jaguares, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 87–11–2
46′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 87–11–2
46′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Sergio Mosquera · Millonarios
46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Millonarios 2–1 Jaguares · Cristian Alvarez
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Millonarios win: 66% at kick-off, 87% now
48′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Juan Cuadrado · Millonarios
48′SECOND HALF Millonarios 2–1 Jaguares
49′🟨 YELLOW · 45+3' David Silva · Millonarios
50′🟨 YELLOW · 45+5' Jonathan Lovera · Jaguares
62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Andrey Estupinan · Millonarios
64′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 99–1–0
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Millonarios 3–1 Jaguares
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Millonarios win: 66% at kick-off, 99% now
65′Millonarios ahead on 63′ through Andrey Estupinan. 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
70′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Jaguares · On: Johan Beltrán · Off: Cristian Alvarez
70′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Jerson Malagon · Jaguares
71′We said Millonarios at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Millonarios 4–1 Jaguares
72′Daniel Felipe Ruiz Rivera scores for Millonarios on 70′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
73′5 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Stiven Vega · Millonarios
75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Andrés Rentería · Jaguares
80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Jaguares · On: Santiago Cubides · Off: Jonathan Lovera
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Millonarios · On: Leonai·Souza de Almeida · Off: Andrey Estupinan
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Millonarios · On: Andrés Llinás · Off: Jaine Barreiro
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Millonarios · On: Rodrigo Contreras · Off: Leonardo Castro
81′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Jaguares · On: Santiago Cubides · Off: Royscer Rafael Colpa Bolano Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Jaguares · On: Jose Yanez · Off: Johar Mejia Corrected
87′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Juan Cuadrado · Millonarios
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Millonarios · On: Julian Angulo · Off: Juan Cuadrado
90′4–1 at the end. Our 66% on Millonarios comes in. 4–1 · 100–0–0
91′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Millonarios · On: Yeiner Matias Romero Pino · Off: David Silva
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Sebastián Valencia · Millonarios
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Leonai·Souza de Almeida · Millonarios
FTFULL TIME Millonarios 4–1 Jaguares
FTMillonarios 4–1 Jaguares · Millonarios win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Millonarios are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Millonarios 66%, draw 22%, Jaguares 12%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Millonarios v JaguaresBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Millonarios win66%

Draw22%

Jaguares win12%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 00:00

RoundClausura · matchday 15

VenueEstadio El Campin

RefereeLuis Matorel Bolivar

Line-ups

Millonarios

4-4-2

Jaguares

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Millonarios

Jaguares

8Days since last match6

Last match: 9 Oct · Primera A

Last match: 11 Oct · Primera A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Millonarios	14	+7	22
18	Jaguares	12	−8	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Millonarios

4-4-2

1 J. Burrai

3 M. Samuel

4 S. Barreiro

6 S. Mosquera

22 S. Valencia

10 D. Ruiz

28 S. Vega

14 D. Silva

7 J. Cuadrado

23 L. Castro

11 A. Estupinan

Coach · Miguel Gamero Morillo Alberto

Substitutes

12 · J. Aguirre

20 · D. Banguero

26 · A. Llinas

30 · S. Viveros

55 · Leonai Souza

15 · Y. Romero

24 · J. Angulo

27 · R. Contreras

Jaguares

4-4-2

12 F. Mosquera

4 J. Franco

6 J. Lovera

29 C. Henao

18 L. Jimenez

7 W. De La Rosa

5 R. R. Colpa Bolano

21 R. Bustamante

9 J. Mejia

11 A. Renteria

10 Jopito

Coach · Julio Mendez

Substitutes

1 · D. Martinez

3 · J. Malagon

2 · A. Alfonso

16 · J. Beltran

30 · R. Perez

32 · J. Yanez

17 · D. Lopez

24 · S. Cubides

28 · D. Zuluaga

Our number · millonarios winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

66% The market78%

Us66%

~~Market~~78%

We make Millonarios a 66% chance to win. The market has them at 78%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Millonarios v Jaguares~~1.91 – 0.68

~~Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D4 L0 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 22 v 10~~7 v 18

~~The market · Millonarios win~~78% · ours 66%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Millonarios win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 78% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Millonarios win	66%	78%	−12
Draw	22%	15%	+7
Jaguares win	12%	7%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	48%	62%	−14
Both teams to score	43%	44%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	73%	83%	−10
Over 3.5 goals	26%	42%	−16
Millonarios or draw	88%	93%	−5
Millonarios clean sheet	51%	–	–
Jaguares clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.7%

0123450 8.3 4.5 1 13.7 10.4 3.3 2 13.5 9.2 3.1 3 8.6 5.8 4 4.2 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Millonarios down, Jaguares across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,529 Primera A matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera A matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.2% of games this season, across 332 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Millonarios at home: 1.33 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Jaguares away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.91 goals for Millonarios, 0.68 for Jaguares. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~JAG 1–0 MIL · MIL 0–0 JAG · JAG 2–1 MIL · JAG 2–0 MIL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 6 Sept

MILLONARIOS

DWWDDD1–1 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1

JAGUARES

DDLLLW3–3 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 3–2

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	America de Cali	13	+16	27
2	Deportivo Cali	13	+11	25
3	Bucaramanga	12	+10	24
4	Atletico Nacional	11	+11	23
5	Independiente Medellin	13	+4	23
6	Santa Fe	12	+7	22
7	Millonarios	14	+7	22
8	Deportes Tolima	14	+1	20
9	Cucuta	13	−3	18
10	Once Caldas	13	0	16
11	Águilas Doradas	13	−1	16
12	Llaneros	13	−2	14
13	Internacional de Bogota	14	−4	14
14	Chico	12	−9	12
15	Alianza Valledupar	13	−12	12
16	Junior	13	−4	11
17	Fortaleza FC	13	−5	11
18	Jaguares	12	−8	10
19	Deportivo Pereira	13	−10	10
20	Deportivo Pasto	12	−9	9