Llaneros v Santa Fe prediction · Primera A

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 03:00

Llaneros 1–0 Santa Fe SANTA FE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Santa Fe win~~38%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.707

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.631

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Santa Fe win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Santa Fe was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 31–31–38
1′KICK-OFF Llaneros v Santa Fe
15′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Jhojan Torres · Santa Fe
25′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Kevin Rincón · Llaneros
28′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Hugo Rodallega · Santa Fe
30′THE CALL SWINGS · 30' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Santa Fe win 33%)
45′HALF-TIME Llaneros 0–0 Santa Fe
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Santa Fe · On: Kilian Toscano · Off: Jhojan Torres
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Santa Fe · On: Emerson Rodriguez · Off: Alexis Zapata
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Santa Fe win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
50′SECOND HALF Llaneros 0–0 Santa Fe
55′We said Santa Fe at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 0–0 · 23–51–26
56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Llaneros · On: Joel Jesús Contreras Torres · Off: Luis Miranda
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Llaneros · On: Marlon Sierra · Off: Kevin Rincón
60′We said Santa Fe at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 21–55–24
69′We said Santa Fe at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 17–64–19
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Llaneros · On: Kelvin Osorio · Off: Juan Castilla Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Llaneros · On: Carlos Cortés · Off: Yorleys Mena
70′We said Santa Fe at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 1–0 · 81–16–2
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Llaneros 1–0 Santa Fe
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Santa Fe win: 38% at kick-off, 2% now
70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Llaneros win is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Draw 16%)
71′71′: Carlos Cortés on the scoresheet for Llaneros, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 82–16–2
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Santa Fe · On: Ewil Murillo · Off: Daniel Torres
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Llaneros · On: Kelvin Osorio · Off: Juan Ramirez Corrected
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Santa Fe · On: Luis Palacios · Off: Jader Obrian
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Santa Fe · On: Maximiliano Lovera · Off: Iván Scarpeta
87′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Llaneros · On: Kelvin Osorio · Off: Juan Ramirez
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Kelvin Osorio · Llaneros
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Marlon Sierra · Llaneros
FTFULL TIME Llaneros 1–0 Santa Fe
FTLlaneros 1–0 Santa Fe · Santa Fe win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Santa Fe are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Llaneros 31%, draw 31%, Santa Fe 38%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Llaneros v Santa FeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Llaneros win31%

Draw31%

Santa Fe win38%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 00:05

RoundClausura · matchday 15

VenueEstadio Manuel Calle Lombana

RefereeJhon Ospina

Line-ups

Llaneros

4-2-3-1

Santa Fe

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Llaneros

Santa Fe

3Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · Copa Colombia

Last match: 11 Oct · Copa Colombia

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Santa Fe	12	+7	22
12	Llaneros	13	−2	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Llaneros

4-2-3-1

22 R. Romana Garavito

4 J. Pertuz

2 H. H. Mena Posada

26 D. Quintero

16 J. Escobar Salcedo

8 J. Ramirez

13 J. Castilla

10 N. Ospina

14 K. Rincon

7 L. Miranda

17 Y. Mena

Coach · Alberto Sandoval Galindo Wilmer

Substitutes

12 · J. Loaiza

94 · J. Medranda

33 · Kelvin Osorio

6 · M. Sierra

20 · B. Chury

32 · F. Castaneda

70 · J. Contreras

9 · C. Cortes

3 · V. Vidal

Santa Fe

4-4-2

12 W. Asprilla

13 H. Palacios

18 E. Olivera

15 I. R. Scarpeta Silgado

32 C. Mafla

77 J. Obrian

16 D. Torres

7 J. Torres

10 A. Zapata

9 F. Fagundez

11 H. Rodallega

Coach · Jose Lopez Fierro

Substitutes

31 · J. Espitia

4 · M. Puerta

14 · L. Palacios

43 · J. Caicedo

6 · K. D. Toscano Bassa

21 · E. Murillo

39 · C. Portocarrero

25 · E. Rodriguez

17 · M. Lovera

Our number · santa fe winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

38% The market35%

Us38%

~~Market~~35%

We make Santa Fe a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Llaneros v Santa Fe~~1.04 – 1.16

~~Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 14 v 22~~12 v 7

~~The market · Santa Fe win~~35% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Santa Fe win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Llaneros win	31%	35%	−4
Draw	31%	30%	+1
Santa Fe win	38%	35%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	38%	43%	−5
Both teams to score	45%	50%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	65%	68%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	18%	23%	−5
Llaneros or draw	62%	65%	−3
Llaneros clean sheet	31%	–	–
Santa Fe clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.1%

0123450 12.1 12.0 7.5 2.9 1 10.6 14.1 7.7 3.0 2 6.0 6.9 4.0 3 2.1 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Llaneros down, Santa Fe across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,531 Primera A matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera A matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.5% of games this season, across 334 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Llaneros at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Santa Fe away: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.04 goals for Llaneros, 1.16 for Santa Fe. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~SAN 0–1 LLA · SAN 1–3 LLA · LLA 0–1 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 5 Sept

LLANEROS

LLWLLL1–2 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–1

SANTA FE

DWWLWW2–2 · 1–0 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–0

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	America de Cali	13	+16	27
2	Atletico Nacional	12	+14	26
3	Deportivo Cali	13	+11	25
4	Millonarios	15	+10	25
5	Bucaramanga	12	+10	24
6	Independiente Medellin	14	+2	23
7	Santa Fe	12	+7	22
8	Deportes Tolima	14	+1	20
9	Once Caldas	14	+2	19
10	Cucuta	13	−3	18
11	Águilas Doradas	13	−1	16
12	Llaneros	13	−2	14
13	Internacional de Bogota	14	−4	14
14	Alianza Valledupar	13	−12	12
15	Chico	13	−12	12
16	Junior	13	−4	11
17	Fortaleza FC	13	−5	11
18	Deportivo Pereira	13	−10	10
19	Jaguares	13	−11	10
20	Deportivo Pasto	12	−9	9