Llaneros v Junior prediction · Primera A

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

LlanerosDrawJunior

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 23:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Junior 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Junior just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Llaneros 33%, draw 30%, Junior 37%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Llaneros v JuniorBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Llaneros win33%

Draw30%

Junior win37%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 23:00

RoundClausura · matchday 17

VenueEstadio Bello Horizonte

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Llaneros

Junior

10Days since last match7

Last match: 22 Oct · Primera A

Last match: 24 Oct · Primera A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Llaneros	15	−4	17
14	Junior	15	−3	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · junior winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Junior a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Llaneros v Junior~~1.12 – 1.21

~~Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 21 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 17 v 15~~13 v 14

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Llaneros win	33%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Junior win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Llaneros or draw	63%	–	–
Llaneros clean sheet	30%	–	–
Junior clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 10.6 11.0 7.1 2.9 1 10.1 13.8 7.9 3.2 2 6.1 7.3 4.4 3 2.3 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Llaneros down, Junior across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,547 Primera A matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera A matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.0% of games this season, across 350 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Llaneros at home: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Junior away: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.12 goals for Llaneros, 1.21 for Junior. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~0 of 3

~~Last meetings~~JUN 2–0 LLA · JUN 4–0 LLA · LLA 0–1 JUN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 21 Sept

LLANEROS

WLLLWL2–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–3

JUNIOR

LLDDDW1–3 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–0

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	America de Cali	15	+18	31
2	Atletico Nacional	14	+16	29
3	Deportivo Cali	15	+14	29
4	Millonarios	16	+10	26
5	Bucaramanga	14	+9	25
6	Santa Fe	14	+7	25
7	Independiente Medellin	14	+2	23
8	Once Caldas	16	+2	21
9	Cucuta	15	−4	21
10	Deportes Tolima	15	0	20
11	Águilas Doradas	15	−1	19
12	Internacional de Bogota	15	−3	17
13	Llaneros	15	−4	17
14	Junior	15	−3	15
15	Alianza Valledupar	14	−11	15
16	Chico	15	−13	15
17	Deportivo Pereira	15	−8	14
18	Fortaleza FC	14	−6	11
19	Jaguares	14	−12	10
20	Deportivo Pasto	14	−13	9