Llaneros v Deportivo Cali prediction · Primera A

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 03:00

Llaneros 0–3 Deportivo Cali LLANEROS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Llaneros win~~38%

~~The market said~~31%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.723

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.547

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Llaneros win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Llaneros was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–32–31
1′KICK-OFF Llaneros v Deportivo Cali
11′We said Llaneros at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–22–64
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Llaneros 0–1 Deportivo Cali
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Llaneros win: 38% at kick-off, 14% now
11′THE CALL SWINGS · 11' Deportivo Cali win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Llaneros win 36%)
12′11′: J. Martinez on the scoresheet for Deportivo Cali, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 14–22–64
15′🟨 YELLOW · 14' Deportivo Cali
21′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Llaneros
22′We said Llaneros at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 0–2 · 3–9–88
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Llaneros 0–2 Deportivo Cali
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Llaneros win: 38% at kick-off, 3% now
23′Deportivo Cali find the net on 22′. 0–2. 0–2 · 3–9–88
42′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Llaneros
43′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–1–99
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Llaneros 0–3 Deportivo Cali
44′J. C. Caldera Alvis scores for Deportivo Cali on 44′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
45′J. C. Caldera Alvis scores for Deportivo Cali on 43′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
45′HALF-TIME Llaneros 0–2 Deportivo Cali
45′SECOND HALF Llaneros 0–2 Deportivo Cali
46′GOAL DISALLOWED · 45+1' Deportivo Cali
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Llaneros · On: J. Contreras · Off: L. Miranda
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Llaneros · On: M. Sierra · Off: K. Rincon
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Llaneros 0–3 Deportivo Cali
64′Titi scores for Deportivo Cali on 63′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Llaneros · On: C. Cortes · Off: Y. Mena
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Llaneros · On: F. Castaneda · Off: J. Castilla
68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Llaneros
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Deportivo Cali · On: J. Moya · Off: K. Sandoval
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Deportivo Cali · On: E. Reynoso · Off: N. Benedetti
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Llaneros · On: Kelvin Osorio · Off: J. Ramirez
80′🟥 RED CARD · 80' Llaneros
81′A red card for Llaneros on 81′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–3 · 0–0–100
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' H. H. Mena Posada · Llaneros
88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Deportivo Cali · On: M. Correa · Off: R. Pajaro
88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Deportivo Cali · On: C. Bacca · Off: Titi
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Deportivo Cali · On: J. Tello · Off: E. Velasco
90′Full time, 0–3. We called Llaneros at 38% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Llaneros 0–3 Deportivo Cali
FTLlaneros 0–3 Deportivo Cali · Llaneros win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Llaneros are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Llaneros 38%, draw 32%, Deportivo Cali 31%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Llaneros v Deportivo CaliBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Llaneros win38%

Draw32%

Deportivo Cali win31%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 00:15

RoundClausura · matchday 9

VenueEstadio Bello Horizonte

Line-ups

Llaneros

4-2-3-1

Deportivo Cali

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Llaneros

Deportivo Cali

3Days since last match2

Last match: 19 Oct · Primera A

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Deportivo Cali	14	+11	26
12	Llaneros	14	−1	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Llaneros

4-2-3-1

22 R. Romana Garavito

4 J. Pertuz

2 H. H. Mena Posada

21 F. Meza

16 J. Escobar Salcedo

14 K. Rincon

13 J. Castilla

10 N. Ospina

8 J. Ramirez

7 L. Miranda

17 Y. Mena

Coach · Alberto Sandoval Galindo Wilmer

Substitutes

12 · J. Loaiza

94 · J. Medranda

26 · D. Quintero

36 · A. Sanchez

33 · Kelvin Osorio

6 · M. Sierra

20 · B. Chury

32 · F. Castaneda

70 · J. Contreras

9 · C. Cortes

Deportivo Cali

4-2-3-1

1 P. Gallese

16 K. Sandoval

12 J. C. Caldera Alvis

4 F. Alvarez

28 E. Velasco

8 D. Giraldo

13 R. Pajaro

19 J. Martinez

21 N. Benedetti

14 A. Manyoma

23 Titi

Coach · Rafael Dudamel

Substitutes

38 · A. Rodriguez

26 · J. Tello

2 · J. Moya

10 · E. Reynoso

29 · K. Caicedo

36 · M. Correa

70 · C. Bacca

20 · E. Bello

9 · J. Dinenno

Our number · llaneros winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 21 Oct 21:36 · locked at kick-off

38% The market31%

Us38%

~~Market~~31%

We make Llaneros a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 31%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Llaneros v Deportivo Cali~~1.10 – 0.97

~~Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 17 v 26~~12 v 3

~~The market · Llaneros win~~31% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Llaneros win The market, margin stripped

Published at 37%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 31% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Llaneros win	38%	31%	+7
Draw	32%	30%	+2
Deportivo Cali win	31%	40%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	34%	42%	−8
Both teams to score	42%	49%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	62%	67%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	16%	23%	−7
Llaneros or draw	69%	60%	+9
Llaneros clean sheet	38%	–	–
Deportivo Cali clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.2%

0123450 13.6 11.3 5.9 1 13.0 14.2 6.5 2.1 2 7.7 7.3 3.6 3 2.8 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Llaneros down, Deportivo Cali across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,540 Primera A matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera A matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.8% of games this season, across 343 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Llaneros at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Deportivo Cali away: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.10 goals for Llaneros, 0.97 for Deportivo Cali. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~DEP 1–1 LLA · DEP 0–3 LLA · LLA 0–1 DEP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 12 Sept

LLANEROS

LWLLLW2–3 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–0

DEPORTIVO CALI

WWWWDD3–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 0–0

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	America de Cali	14	+16	28
2	Atletico Nacional	13	+13	26
3	Deportivo Cali	14	+11	26
4	Millonarios	16	+10	26
5	Bucaramanga	13	+10	25
6	Independiente Medellin	14	+2	23
7	Santa Fe	13	+6	22
8	Cucuta	14	−2	21
9	Once Caldas	15	+2	20
10	Deportes Tolima	15	0	20
11	Águilas Doradas	14	0	19
12	Llaneros	14	−1	17
13	Internacional de Bogota	15	−3	17
14	Alianza Valledupar	14	−11	15
15	Deportivo Pereira	14	−8	13
16	Junior	14	−4	12
17	Chico	14	−14	12
18	Fortaleza FC	14	−6	11
19	Jaguares	13	−11	10
20	Deportivo Pasto	13	−10	9