Home › Football › Primera A › Junior v Internacional de Bogota

Junior v Internacional de Bogota

Junior

2–2Full time

Internacional de Bogota

Primera A · SUN 11 OCT · Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 02:47

Junior 2–2 Internacional de Bogota JUNIOR WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Junior win~~62%

~~The market said~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.000

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.988

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Junior win at 62%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Junior 62% before kick-off, 63% now. 0–0 · 63–22–16
1′Little has changed for our model: Junior 62% before kick-off, 62% now. 0–0 · 62–22–16
1′KICK-OFF Junior v Internacional de Bogota
11′⚽ GOAL · 12' Junior 0–0 Internacional de Bogota
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Junior 0–1 Internacional de Bogota · Cristián Dájome
21′Internacional de Bogota ahead on 19′ through Cristián Dájome. 0–1. 0–1 · 30–28–43
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Junior win: 62% at kick-off, 30% now
21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' Internacional de Bogota win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Junior win 30%)
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Junior win: 62% at kick-off, 62% now
21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' Junior win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Internacional de Bogota win 16%)
22′Internacional de Bogota ahead on 19′ through Cristián Dájome. 0–1. 0–1 · 29–28–43
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Junior win: 62% at kick-off, 62% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Junior win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Internacional de Bogota win 16%)
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Junior win: 62% at kick-off, 29% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Internacional de Bogota win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Junior win 29%)
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Junior 1–1 Internacional de Bogota · Cristián Dájome
26′⚽ GOAL · 25' Junior 1–1 Internacional de Bogota · Jesús Rivas
29′SUBSTITUTION · 29' Internacional de Bogota · On: Miguel Angel Amaya Peña · Off: Mateo Rodas Corrected
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Junior win: 62% at kick-off, 30% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Internacional de Bogota win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Junior win 30%)
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Junior win: 62% at kick-off, 30% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Internacional de Bogota win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Junior win 30%)
45′SECOND HALF Junior 1–1 Internacional de Bogota
46′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Dewar Victoria · Internacional de Bogota
58′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Internacional de Bogota · On: Facundo Boné · Off: Diego Duarte Corrected
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Junior · On: Francisco Fydriszewski · Off: Luis Muriel Corrected
59′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Junior · On: Guillermo Paiva · Off: Teófilo Gutiérrez Corrected
71′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Yeison Abelardo Suarez Vasquez · Junior
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Junior 1–1 Internacional de Bogota · Francisco Fydriszewski
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Junior 2–1 Internacional de Bogota · Francisco Fydriszewski
72′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Junior · On: Bryan Castrillón · Off: Déiber Caicedo Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Junior · On: Yimmi Chará · Off: Kevin Pérez Corrected
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Junior 2–1 Internacional de Bogota · Fabricio Sanguinetti
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Junior 2–2 Internacional de Bogota · Fabricio Sanguinetti
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Internacional de Bogota · On: Ruben Manjarres · Off: Dewar Victoria Corrected
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Internacional de Bogota · On: Johan Caballero · Off: Cristián Dájome Corrected
89′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Junior · On: Harold Rivera · Off: Jesús Rivas Corrected
92′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Jermein Pena · Junior
FTFULL TIME Junior 2–2 Internacional de Bogota
FTJunior 2–2 Internacional de Bogota · Junior win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Junior win62%

Draw23%

Internacional de Bogota win15%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Jose Mourinho embarrassed and Vinicius Jr sent off in incredible Real Madrid hair pull dramaMirror Football · 1 hour ago · Real Madrid, Junior, Villarreal

Match information

SUN 11 OCT · 00:10

Venue · Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez

Referee · Diego Ulloa Angulo

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Junior

4-2-3-1

30 J. Martinez

34 D. Socarras

98 J. Pena

23 P. Ortiz

26 Y. Suarez

80 F. S. Angel Bernal

22 J. Rivas

10 L. Muriel

18 K. Perez

25 D. Caicedo

29 T. Gutierrez

Coach · Sebastian Viera

Substitutes

12 · J. L. Acosta Almeida

5 · D. Rivera

7 · H. Rivera

28 · G. Celis

38 · A. Shmalbach

8 · Y. Chara

19 · F. Fydriszewski

9 · G. Paiva

88 · B. Castrillon

Internacional de Bogota

4-2-3-1

1 W. Farinez

20 J. Castro

4 M. Rodas

26 A. Irazoque

13 M. Pernia

5 L. Vasquez

8 D. S. Victoria Palacios

25 R. Julio

11 C. Dajome

7 F. Sanguinetti

9 D. Duarte

Coach · Ricardo Valino

Substitutes

33 · K. Catano

6 · M. Angel Amaya Pena

24 · R. Manjarres

14 · M. Santamaria

32 · J. Palomeque

10 · F. Bone

23 · J. Caballero

22 · S. Girado

19 · Y. Garcia

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Junior

4-2-3-1

30 J. Martinez

34 D. Socarras

98 J. Pena

23 P. Ortiz

26 Y. Suarez

80 F. S. Angel Bernal

22 J. Rivas

10 L. Muriel

18 K. Perez

25 D. Caicedo

29 T. Gutierrez

Coach · Sebastian Viera

Substitutes

12 · J. L. Acosta Almeida

5 · D. Rivera

7 · H. Rivera

28 · G. Celis

38 · A. Shmalbach

8 · Y. Chara

19 · F. Fydriszewski

9 · G. Paiva

88 · B. Castrillon

Internacional de Bogota

4-2-3-1

1 W. Farinez

20 J. Castro

4 M. Rodas

26 A. Irazoque

13 M. Pernia

5 L. Vasquez

8 D. S. Victoria Palacios

25 R. Julio

11 C. Dajome

7 F. Sanguinetti

9 D. Duarte

Coach · Ricardo Valino

Substitutes

33 · K. Catano

6 · M. Angel Amaya Pena

24 · R. Manjarres

14 · M. Santamaria

32 · J. Palomeque

10 · F. Bone

23 · J. Caballero

22 · S. Girado

19 · Y. Garcia

Our number · junior winPublished 11 Oct 00:01

62% The market60%

Us62%

~~Market~~60%

We make Junior a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.9–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · junior win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 57% to 60% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Junior win	62%	60%	+1
Draw	23%	23%	0
Internacional de Bogota win	15%	17%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	52%	55%	−3
Both teams to score	49%	53%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	77%	77%	0
Over 3.5 goals	30%	34%	−4
Junior or draw	85%	83%	+2
Junior clean sheet	43%	–	–
Internacional de Bogota clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.6%

0123450 7.2 4.7 2.3 1 11.5 10.9 4.3 2 11.6 9.7 4.1 3 7.4 6.2 2.6 4 3.6 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Junior down, Internacional de Bogota across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,521 Primera A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera A matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.5% of games this season, across 324 played.

Head to head

11 previous meetings, 0.91 goals a meeting; 0 of 11 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Junior at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Internacional de Bogota away: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.92 goals for Junior, 0.84 for Internacional de Bogota. Most likely score 2–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 23:44. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

11 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~0.91

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 11

~~Both scored~~1 of 11

~~Last meetings~~INT 0–1 JUN · JUN 1–1 INT · INT 0–1 JUN · INT 1–0 JUN

Form · last six in Primera A

JUNIOR

DLWWLL3–3 · 0–1 · 4–1 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 1–3

INTERNACIONAL DE BOGOTA

DWLLDD2–2 · 3–2 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Atletico Nacional	36	+39	78
2	America de Cali	33	+23	61
3	Santa Fe	35	+18	57
4	Deportes Tolima	36	+12	57
5	Junior	36	+6	53
6	Deportivo Cali	31	+15	51
7	Millonarios	33	+15	48
8	Once Caldas	33	+7	47
9	Bucaramanga	30	+16	46
10	Independiente Medellin	31	+5	46
11	Deportivo Pasto	33	−8	43
12	Águilas Doradas	31	−6	41
13	Internacional de Bogota	34	−11	41
14	Llaneros	31	−4	36
15	Fortaleza FC	32	−10	33
16	Cucuta	31	−17	31
17	Chico	30	−25	29
18	Alianza Valledupar	32	−26	29
19	Jaguares	30	−22	25
20	Deportivo Pereira	30	−27	18