Junior v Deportivo Pereira prediction · Primera A

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 01:00

Junior 1–1 Deportivo Pereira JUNIOR WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Junior win~~62%

~~The market said~~71%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.003

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.187

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Junior win at 62%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Junior 62% before kick-off, 63% now. 0–0 · 63–22–15
1′KICK-OFF Junior v Deportivo Pereira
6′Jermein Pena scores for Junior on 5′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 84–11–4
6′We said Junior at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 1–0 · 84–11–4
6′⚽ GOAL · 5' Junior 1–0 Deportivo Pereira · Jermein Pena
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Junior win: 62% at kick-off, 84% now
26′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Manuel Alejandro Diaz Hernandez · Deportivo Pereira
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 84–12–4
36′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Jermein Pena · Junior
44′We said Junior at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–3
44′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Nicolás Rengifo · Deportivo Pereira
45′PENALTY MISSED · 45' Luis Muriel · Junior
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Deportivo Pereira · On: Anderson Plata · Off: Sebastian Acosta
45′SECOND HALF Junior 1–0 Deportivo Pereira
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Deportivo Pereira · On: Sebastián Urrea Arbeláez · Off: Nicolás Rengifo
47′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Daniel Socarras · Junior
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Deportivo Pereira · On: Ederson Moreno · Off: Manuel Alejandro Diaz Hernandez
48′🟥 RED CARD · 48' Junior
49′Deportivo Pereira are down to ten from 49′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 85–13–3
49′🟥 RED CARD · 49' Ederson Moreno · Deportivo Pereira
49′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Ederson Moreno · Deportivo Pereira
58′58′ and it is 1–1: Anderson Plata on the scoresheet for Deportivo Pereira. 1–1 · 40–46–14
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Junior 1–1 Deportivo Pereira
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Junior win: 62% at kick-off, 40% now
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Junior win 40%)
59′We said Junior at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–47–14
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Junior · On: Francisco Fydriszewski · Off: Luis Muriel
62′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Junior · On: Teófilo Gutiérrez · Off: Bryan Castrillón
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Junior · On: Teófilo Gutiérrez · Off: Bryan Castrillón
66′We said Junior at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–54–12
68′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Junior · On: Andrés Shmalbach · Off: Edwin Herrera
68′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Junior · On: Cristian Barrios · Off: Guillermo Paiva
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Junior win: 62% at kick-off, 32% now
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Deportivo Pereira · On: Miguel Ángel Aguirre · Off: Luis Jeiner Moreno
71′We said Junior at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–60–11
77′We said Junior at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 1–1 · 22–70–9
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Junior win: 62% at kick-off, 22% now
78′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Junior · On: Yimmi Chará · Off: Kevin Pérez
80′We said Junior at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 1–1 · 18–75–7
83′We said Junior at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 1–1 · 13–82–5
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Junior win: 62% at kick-off, 10% now
89′We said Junior at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 1–1 · 7–90–3
89′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Deportivo Pereira · On: Tobías Bovone · Off: Miguel Palacios
93′We said Junior at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 1–1 · 3–96–1
95′10.0 shots for Junior, 5.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 2–97–1
95′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 95' Junior win: 62% at kick-off, 3% now
95′THE CALL SWINGS · 95' Draw is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Junior win 3%)
FTFULL TIME Junior 1–1 Deportivo Pereira
FTJunior 1–1 Deportivo Pereira · Junior win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Junior are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Junior 62%, draw 23%, Deportivo Pereira 15%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Junior v Deportivo PereiraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 22:19 · locked at kick-off

Junior win62%

Draw23%

Deportivo Pereira win15%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 22:30

VenueEstadio Romelio Martinez

RefereeCarlos Andres Marquez Ortega

Line-ups

Junior

4-4-2

Deportivo Pereira

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Junior

Deportivo Pereira

4Days since last match4

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Junior	19	7	35
20	Deportivo Pereira	19	-17	10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Junior

4-4-2

30 J. Martinez

34 D. Socarras

98 J. Pena

5 D. Rivera

3 E. Herrera

88 B. Castrillon

22 J. Rivas

80 F. S. Angel Bernal

18 K. Perez

10 L. Muriel

9 G. Paiva

Coach · Sebastian Viera

Substitutes

12 · J. L. Acosta Almeida

16 · C. Perez

28 · G. Celis

14 · J. Rios

38 · A. Shmalbach

29 · T. Gutierrez

8 · Y. Chara

19 · F. Fydriszewski

77 · C. Barrios

Deportivo Pereira

4-4-2

1 Y. A. Gomez Palacio

20 J. Monroy

15 S. Aguilar

3 N. Rengifo

25 F. Delgado

11 J. Largacha

21 W. Pacheco

37 L. Moreno

24 M. Palacios

10 S. Acosta

29 M. Diaz

Coach · Alexis Marquez

Substitutes

12 · J. Betancourth

23 · T. Bovone

2 · S. Urrea

14 · E. Moreno

16 · E. A. Moreno Gomez

27 · J. Morales

26 · J. Montoya

19 · M. Aguirre

7 · A. Plata

Our number · junior winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 22:19 · locked at kick-off

62% The market71%

Us62%

~~Market~~71%

We make Junior a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 71%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Junior v Deportivo Pereira~~1.90 – 0.81

~~Last six in Primera A~~W2 D1 L3 · W0 D3 L3

~~Table places · points 35 v 10~~2 v 20

~~The market · Junior win~~71% · ours 62%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · junior win The market, margin stripped

Published at 63%, 62% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 71% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Junior win	62%	71%	−9
Draw	23%	18%	+5
Deportivo Pereira win	15%	10%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	51%	59%	−8
Both teams to score	48%	49%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	76%	80%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	29%	39%	−10
Junior or draw	85%	90%	−5
Junior clean sheet	44%	–	–
Deportivo Pereira clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.9%

0123450 7.4 4.8 2.2 1 11.9 10.9 4.2 2 11.9 9.6 3.9 3 7.5 6.1 2.5 4 3.6 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Junior down, Deportivo Pereira across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,528 Primera A matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera A matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.3% of games this season, across 331 played.

Head to head

17 previous meetings, 2.94 goals a meeting; 9 of 17 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Junior at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Deportivo Pereira away: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.90 goals for Junior, 0.81 for Deportivo Pereira. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 14 Oct 22:18. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

17 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.94

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 17

~~Both scored~~8 of 17

~~Last meetings~~DEP 2–3 JUN · JUN 3–2 DEP · DEP 1–0 JUN · JUN 3–1 DEP

Form · last six in Primera A

JUNIOR

LWWLLD0–1 · 4–1 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 1–3 · 2–2

DEPORTIVO PEREIRA

LDDLLD1–3 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–4 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Atletico Nacional	19	20	40
2	Junior	19	7	35
3	Deportivo Pasto	19	4	34
4	America de Cali	19	10	33
5	Once Caldas	19	9	33
6	Deportes Tolima	19	10	31
7	Santa Fe	19	7	29
8	Internacional de Bogota	19	0	28
9	Deportivo Cali	19	4	27
10	Millonarios	19	8	26
11	Independiente Medellin	19	2	26
12	Águilas Doradas	19	-5	26
13	Bucaramanga	19	6	23
14	Llaneros	19	-3	22
15	Fortaleza FC	19	-5	22
16	Jaguares	19	-13	18
17	Alianza Valledupar	19	-14	17
18	Chico	19	-17	17
19	Cucuta	19	-13	16
20	Deportivo Pereira	19	-17	10