Junior v Águilas Doradas prediction · Primera A

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 05:01

Junior 1–0 Águilas Doradas JUNIOR WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Junior win~~53%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.328

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.384

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Junior win at 53%.
1′KICK-OFF Junior v Águilas Doradas
2′Much as we predicted: Junior was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 53–26–21
29′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Junior
30′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Junior
36′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Águilas Doradas
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Junior win: 53% at kick-off, 43% now
45′45′: D. Caicedo on the scoresheet for Junior. 0–0 · 41–39–20
45′We said Junior at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 41%. 0–0 · 41–39–20
45′HALF-TIME Junior 1–0 Águilas Doradas
45′SECOND HALF Junior 1–0 Águilas Doradas
46′We published Junior at 53%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–15–4
46′⚽ GOAL · 45' Junior 1–0 Águilas Doradas · D. Caicedo
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Junior win: 53% at kick-off, 81% now
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Águilas Doradas · On: E. Arizalas · Off: M. Ramirez
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Águilas Doradas · On: A. Carreno · Off: S. Rodriguez
47′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 81–15–4
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Junior win: 53% at kick-off, 83% now
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Junior · On: G. Paiva · Off: L. Muriel
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Junior · On: J. Rivas · Off: F. S. Angel Bernal
65′We published Junior at 53%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Águilas Doradas · On: J. Roa · Off: I. Rojas
71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Junior
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Águilas Doradas · On: J. Garcia · Off: N. Lara Vasquez
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Junior · On: B. Castrillon · Off: C. Barrios
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Junior · On: J. Canchimbo · Off: D. Caicedo
77′We published Junior at 53%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Junior win: 53% at kick-off, 93% now
84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Águilas Doradas
85′We published Junior at 53%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Junior · On: H. Rivera · Off: Y. Chara
87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Águilas Doradas · On: J. E. Avalo Trejos · Off: A. Ricaurte
90′Full time, 1–0. We called Junior at 53% — that one lands. 1–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Junior 1–0 Águilas Doradas
FTJunior 1–0 Águilas Doradas · Junior win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Junior are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Junior 53%, draw 26%, Águilas Doradas 21%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Junior v Águilas DoradasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Junior win53%

Draw26%

Águilas Doradas win21%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 02:10

RoundClausura · matchday 16

Line-ups

Junior

4-4-2

Águilas Doradas

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Junior

Águilas Doradas

5Days since last match6

Last match: 19 Oct · Primera A

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera A

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Águilas Doradas	14	0	19
16	Junior	14	−4	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Junior

4-4-2

1 Mauro Silveira

34 Daniel Socarras

98 Jermein Peña

5 Daniel Rivera

26 Yeison Suárez

77 Cristian Barrios

80 Fabián Ángel

28 Guillermo Celis

8 Yimmi Chará

25 Déiber Caicedo

10 Luis Muriel

Coach · –

Substitutes

30 · Jefersson Martínez

23 · Pablo Ortíz

38 · Andrés Schmalbach

18 · Kevin Pérez

7 · Harold Rivera

22 · Jesús Rivas

88 · Bryan Castrillón

9 · Guillermo Paiva

21 · Joel Canchimbo

Águilas Doradas

4-2-3-1

1 Jorge Soto

26 Dylan Lozano

4 Andrés Mosquera

28 Sebastián Rodríguez

32 Javier Mena

19 Frank Lozano

6 Iván Rojas

30 Nicolás Lara

8 Andrés Ricaurte

16 Matías Ramírez

9 Anthony Vásquez

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · Juan Hurtado

2 · John García

20 · Alberto Higgins

25 · Juan Camilo Roa

24 · Juan Ávalo

7 · Eduar Arízalas

27 · Carlos Londoño

18 · Andrés Carreño

29 · Tomás Blandón

Our number · junior winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 20 Oct 03:48 · locked at kick-off

53% The market49%

Us53%

~~Market~~49%

We make Junior a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Junior v Águilas Doradas~~1.67 – 0.96

~~Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 24 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 12 v 19~~16 v 11

~~The market · Junior win~~49% · ours 53%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Junior win The market, margin stripped

Published at 54%, 53% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Junior win	53%	49%	+4
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Águilas Doradas win	21%	24%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	49%	51%	−2
Both teams to score	50%	54%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	74%	74%	0
Over 3.5 goals	27%	29%	−2
Junior or draw	79%	76%	+3
Junior clean sheet	39%	–	–
Águilas Doradas clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 8.1 6.2 3.3 1 11.3 12.2 5.5 2 10.0 9.5 4.5 3 5.6 5.3 2.5 4 2.4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Junior down, Águilas Doradas across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,544 Primera A matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera A matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.1% of games this season, across 347 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.20 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Junior at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Águilas Doradas away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Junior, 0.96 for Águilas Doradas. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~AGU 0–3 JUN · AGU 2–3 JUN · JUN 2–2 AGU · JUN 3–4 AGU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 24 Sept

JUNIOR

WLLDDD2–0 · 1–3 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–0

ÁGUILAS DORADAS

LLWDDW0–1 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–1

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Atletico Nacional	14	+16	29
2	Deportivo Cali	15	+14	29
3	America de Cali	14	+16	28
4	Millonarios	16	+10	26
5	Bucaramanga	13	+10	25
6	Santa Fe	14	+7	25
7	Independiente Medellin	14	+2	23
8	Cucuta	14	−2	21
9	Once Caldas	15	+2	20
10	Deportes Tolima	15	0	20
11	Águilas Doradas	14	0	19
12	Internacional de Bogota	15	−3	17
13	Llaneros	15	−4	17
14	Alianza Valledupar	14	−11	15
15	Deportivo Pereira	14	−8	13
16	Junior	14	−4	12
17	Chico	14	−14	12
18	Fortaleza FC	14	−6	11
19	Jaguares	14	−12	10
20	Deportivo Pasto	14	−13	9