Jaguares v Llaneros prediction · Primera A

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

JaguaresDrawLlaneros

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 23:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Jaguares 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Jaguares are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Jaguares 40%, draw 30%, Llaneros 30%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Jaguares v LlanerosBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Jaguares win40%

Draw30%

Llaneros win30%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 23:00

RoundClausura · matchday 16

VenueEstadio Jaraguay

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Jaguares

Llaneros

4Days since last match5

Last match: 22 Oct · Primera A

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Llaneros	15	−4	17
19	Jaguares	14	−12	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · jaguares winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · updated 22 Oct 03:07 · locked at kick-off

40% The market35%

Us40%

~~Market~~35%

We make Jaguares a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Jaguares v Llaneros~~1.23 – 1.02

~~Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 21 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 10 v 17~~19 v 13

~~The market · Jaguares win~~35% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Jaguares win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Jaguares win	40%	35%	+5
Draw	30%	29%	+1
Llaneros win	30%	36%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	39%	47%	−8
Both teams to score	46%	53%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	66%	71%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	19%	28%	−9
Jaguares or draw	70%	64%	+6
Jaguares clean sheet	36%	–	–
Llaneros clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.9%

0123450 11.5 10.0 5.5 1 12.1 13.9 6.7 2.3 2 7.9 8.0 4.1 3 3.3 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Jaguares down, Llaneros across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,546 Primera A matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera A matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.9% of games this season, across 349 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 1 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Jaguares at home: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Llaneros away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.23 goals for Jaguares, 1.02 for Llaneros. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~LLA 2–0 JAG · JAG 1–1 LLA · LLA 2–2 JAG · JAG 1–0 LLA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 21 Sept

JAGUARES

LLLWLL1–2 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 1–4 · 1–2

LLANEROS

WLLLWL2–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–3

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Atletico Nacional	14	+16	29
2	Deportivo Cali	15	+14	29
3	America de Cali	14	+16	28
4	Millonarios	16	+10	26
5	Bucaramanga	14	+9	25
6	Santa Fe	14	+7	25
7	Independiente Medellin	14	+2	23
8	Cucuta	14	−2	21
9	Once Caldas	15	+2	20
10	Deportes Tolima	15	0	20
11	Águilas Doradas	15	−1	19
12	Internacional de Bogota	15	−3	17
13	Llaneros	15	−4	17
14	Junior	15	−3	15
15	Alianza Valledupar	14	−11	15
16	Chico	15	−13	15
17	Deportivo Pereira	14	−8	13
18	Fortaleza FC	14	−6	11
19	Jaguares	14	−12	10
20	Deportivo Pasto	14	−13	9