Jaguares v Deportes Tolima prediction · Primera A

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 01:00

Jaguares 3–2 Deportes Tolima DEPORTES TOLIMA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Deportes Tolima win~~45%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.847

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.084

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Deportes Tolima win at 45%.
1′KICK-OFF Jaguares v Deportes Tolima
2′Much as we predicted: Deportes Tolima was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 26–29–45
19′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Jaguares
27′SUBSTITUTION · 29' Deportes Tolima · On: Juan Jose Mera Gonzalez · Off: Sebastian Guzman
36′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Ever Valencia · Deportes Tolima
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Jaguares 1–0 Deportes Tolima
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Jaguares 1–0 Deportes Tolima · Luis Jimenez
45′SECOND HALF Jaguares 1–0 Deportes Tolima
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Deportes Tolima · On: Edwar López · Off: Shean Barbosa
52′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Brayan Rovira · Deportes Tolima
57′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Deportes Tolima · On: Luis Sandoval · Off: Sergio Aguayo
63′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Jaguares · On: Darwin Lopez · Off: Andrés Rentería
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Jaguares · On: Johan Beltrán · Off: Cristian Alvarez
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Jaguares · On: Santiago Cubides · Off: Johar Mejia
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Jaguares 2–0 Deportes Tolima · Luis Jimenez
66′⚽ GOAL · 67' Jaguares 2–0 Deportes Tolima · Rafael Bustamante
69′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Luis Sandoval · Deportes Tolima
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Jaguares 2–1 Deportes Tolima · Johan Beltrán
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Jaguares 2–1 Deportes Tolima · Adrián Parra
78′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Deportes Tolima · On: Jader Valencia · Off: Brayan Rovira
80′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Jaguares · On: Jose Yanez · Off: Wilfrido De la Rosa
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Jaguares · On: Andres Felipe Alfonso Ciprian · Off: Juan Esteban Franco
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Jaguares 2–2 Deportes Tolima · Adrián Parra
87′⚽ GOAL · 88' Jaguares 2–2 Deportes Tolima · Adrián Parra
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Santiago Cubides · Jaguares
93′⚽ GOAL · 93' Jaguares 3–2 Deportes Tolima · Adrián Parra
93′⚽ GOAL · 93' Jaguares 3–2 Deportes Tolima · Darwin Lopez
95′🟨 YELLOW · 95' Johan Beltrán · Jaguares
FTFULL TIME Jaguares 3–2 Deportes Tolima
FTJaguares 3–2 Deportes Tolima · Deportes Tolima win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Jaguares win25%

Draw30%

Deportes Tolima win45%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 22:05

VenueEstadio Jaragüay De Monteria

RefereeDiaz Vargas, Carlos Alberto

Line-ups

Jaguares

4-2-3-1

Deportes Tolima

5-3-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Jaguares

Deportes Tolima

8Days since last match3

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Deportes Tolima	36	+12	57
19	Jaguares	30	−22	25

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Jaguares

4-2-3-1

12 F. Mosquera

4 J. Franco

6 J. Lovera

29 C. Henao

18 L. Jimenez

5 R. R. Colpa Bolano

21 R. Bustamante

7 W. De La Rosa

10 Jopito

9 J. Mejia

11 A. Renteria

Coach · Julio Mendez

Substitutes

26 · E. Lopez

2 · A. Alfonso

16 · J. Beltran

32 · J. Yanez

17 · D. Lopez

24 · S. Cubides

27 · F. Gracia

28 · D. Zuluaga

34 · C. Castro

Deportes Tolima

5-3-2

1 Neto Volpi

33 J. Mosquera

14 H. E. Martinez Yepez

80 B. Rovira

2 A. Angulo

30 S. P. Barbosa Gomez

8 E. Valencia

20 J. Hernandez

32 S. Guzman

24 A. Parra Osorio

15 S. Aguayo

Coach · Fernando Suarez Luis

Substitutes

13 · M. Ortega

5 · J. Mera

16 · V. Reyes

28 · E. Lopez

11 · J. Valencia

9 · L. Sandoval

29 · N. Sanchez

34 · G. Moreno

Our number · deportes tolima winPublished 11 Oct 22:08

45% The market59%

Us45%

~~Market~~59%

We make Deportes Tolima a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 14 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · deportes tolima win The market, margin stripped

Published at 44%, 45% now. The market has gone from 52% to 58% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Jaguares win	25%	17%	+8
Draw	30%	24%	+6
Deportes Tolima win	45%	59%	−14
Over 2.5 goals	38%	49%	−12
Both teams to score	44%	49%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	65%	73%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	18%	29%	−11
Jaguares or draw	55%	41%	+14
Jaguares clean sheet	28%	–	–
Deportes Tolima clean sheet	41%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 12.2 13.5 9.2 4.0 1 9.2 13.7 8.3 3.6 2 4.6 5.8 3.7 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Jaguares down, Deportes Tolima across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,524 Primera A matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera A matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.3% of games this season, across 327 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 2.78 goals a meeting; 4 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Jaguares at home: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Deportes Tolima away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.90 goals for Jaguares, 1.29 for Deportes Tolima. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 21:47. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.78

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 9

~~Both scored~~4 of 9

~~Last meetings~~DEP 3–1 JAG · JAG 0–2 DEP · DEP 2–0 JAG · JAG 0–1 DEP

Form · last six in Primera A

JAGUARES

DDDLLL2–2 · 3–3 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–2

DEPORTES TOLIMA

LLDDDD0–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Atletico Nacional	36	+39	78
2	America de Cali	33	+23	61
3	Santa Fe	35	+18	57
4	Deportes Tolima	36	+12	57
5	Junior	37	+6	54
6	Deportivo Cali	32	+15	52
7	Once Caldas	34	+8	50
8	Millonarios	33	+15	48
9	Bucaramanga	30	+16	46
10	Independiente Medellin	31	+5	46
11	Deportivo Pasto	33	−8	43
12	Internacional de Bogota	35	−11	42
13	Águilas Doradas	31	−6	41
14	Llaneros	32	−5	36
15	Fortaleza FC	32	−10	33
16	Cucuta	31	−17	31
17	Chico	30	−25	29
18	Alianza Valledupar	32	−26	29
19	Jaguares	30	−22	25
20	Deportivo Pereira	31	−27	19